when it crashes (if it crashes) it will take 2-3 weeks to bottom so you don't have to worry about missing it. it will be very slow and the volatility will just grind to a halt before it goes up. so we can be super patient and let it do whatever it does.
patience, my man.
if this actually happens, I will 100% nail this to the wall on the exact day it bottoms.
Quoting: Mr Cheese the longer this goes on, the more sure I am that
bitcoin is dead. the miners MUST be losing $15-20
million every day. That's a very conservative
estimate based solely on energy costs. The EU
miners (roughly 15%) have to be getting hammered,
energy prices up 5x minimum.
.
You do bring up a good point that the mining issue really does seem like it would have to reach a breaking point where something happens. Unfortunately i just don't have a clue what that breaking point is, or where it's at.
I've been looking into this recently. There are many sources of information, but the difficulty is determining what level of trust to put in the information source.
[
link to en.macromicro.me (secure)]
This source suggests that the cost to mine is presently ~$19.8k.
A site that has a lot of information available, presented in multiple ways is this one:
[
link to insights.braiins.com (secure)]
My basic understanding is that the profitability (or not) of the BTC mining is dependent on the input costs, primarily the cost of electricity and efficiency of the mining rig being used.
The survival of a given mining company has several factors aside from these as well, namely how much debt service they have, how many BTC they have in HODL and how they are positioned in term of expansion (or not) of facilities, miners and access to lower cost electricity.
A typical mining company report looks like this:
[
link to bitfarms.com (secure)]
Here, it looks like they are very efficient and have low cost electricity with a break even cost to mine around $9400.
Having looked at several mining operations, my general sense is that overall they have between another 3-8 months of "burn" where they can continue to draw from their HODL stockpile before they have to capitulate (assuming no other input capital sources).
This also assumes that these BTC are not encumbered in any way (such as being locked up in the FTX and related companies bankruptcies) and are truthfully being reported by the mining company.
