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Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic

 
nemo_solus

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12/26/2022 04:40 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
Nemo, i'm still sold on 8/9k as the bottom. Comparing this bull market to the prior bull market... i finally found the way to anchor the fib brackets in the chart properly. At least, I think I have. Using the prior market high(from 2011) as the bottom of your fib bracket, the 886 was the retrace of the 2015 bear market.

Doing the same business with the current market cycle(using the 2013 top as the bottom of your fib bracket) says 8900/9k is the bottom. Copy/pasting the fractal over current price gives a timeline of happening in the next 3-4 months.

Yellow arrow in 2015 compares to 15k where we are currently (temporarily) showing signs of support (both were exactly at the 786).

In 2015, it bottomed exactly at the 886. 2022/2023's 886 is 8900/9000$.

IMO, this is when I will buy. Thinking it really happens in the next 3-4 months. March 11/13th would make sense because of a lot of reasons. 11th day of the 3rd month of the quarterly financial period is often a market bottom.

9/11 was 11th day of 3rd month of a financial quarter.
So was covid19's march 11 2020 bottom.
So was december 11, 2018 market bottom.
Happening on march 11/13th just feels too predictable so honestly i'm not sure that'll happen, just based on how predictable it is.

Honestly it's ready to drop at any time. Could happen next month. Or again, may be march 2023.
https://imgur.com/Iyu44mE


Going below 8800$ is now a pretty bad sign. If it goes below 8800 i probably won't buy.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


That's an interesting find Cheese!

https://imgur.com/a/qoLlTdI


I had been watching the fractal from 2014-2015 as the market had been following it so well the past months, but since the FTX collapse, the price has seriously deviated from following it. What remains to be seen is does the timing of that fractal still play out. We'll see if it does sometime around mid-February to mid-March 2023.

https://imgur.com/a/qi7ezV9



https://imgur.com/a/xpEl4BF


Haven't seen the cash further moving to/from stablecoins yet. May need to redraw the upper trend line of the pennant due to the most recent data, but leaving it where it is for now.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 12/26/2022 05:23 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
if my life depended on it and i had to pick an exact area that 8900 happened to bottom on, i would pick friday march 24-26, 2023. i have two huge downsloping supports that converge on that timeframe. i'll show the two downsloping supports if we actually do start to break down in february. i do think it will continue to be a boring month or two. i'll probably look to reenter short in mid february.

i doubt that i will be able to call the exact day it bottoms from... 3 months ahead of time? but that is how the daily chart downsloping supports would just be picture perfect beautiful to land on 8900.

if 8900$ happens exactly on march 24-26th and if that is exactly the bottom, i hope this has proven to everyone how predictable bitcoin can be and i hope this proves to everyone that it is less of a scam and more of a repetitive machine that most don't understand most of the time... and that no one understands all of the time... but very rarely... you can catch a peak behind the curtain.

(these two supports? one of them was created in september 2021 and the other was created in june 2022. if they were created that long ago and if they both line up with the bottom then bitcoin has been on a destiny run towards 8900$ for the last year+)
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12/26/2022 08:22 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
reasons why march 24, 2023 and 8900/9000$

1:
[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

white arrows(white line) in picture one are the downsloping trendline started in summer of 2021. a huge two year old trendline.

yellow arrows represent the .236 extension from the 48.2k and using 17.5k as the 236 area. 8900$ area fits extremely well based on the 236 extension trick. 8900$ fits on a timeline of end of march due to the white arrow trendline.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2:
[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

white arrows(yellow line) in picture two are the old daily candleclose trendline from 65k top two years ago. huge huge downsloping supportline and it will match with 8900$ around end of march 2023.

blue arrows in picture two represent the top at 48.2k and the .5 acting as a support for a while. You can often extend a market from top to bottom of a market like this. The trick is that it's hard to guess which spots are actually the top and which are actually the .5.

using the .5 extension trick above, the .236 has solid price action also. you can see this in the one of the lower yellow arrows.

lastly i didnt put an arrow on the low at jan 20, 2022 at 33k but it was exactly at the .618 of this fib bracket, indicating that this is a 2.618 fib extention of that market. another version of phi.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3:
[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

ive been trying and trying and trying to figure out how to compare 2022 to 2018. well i think i have it here. haven't shown this to anyone yet but i copied the 2018 price structure from the circle on the left and moved it beneath price on the right. i put a verticle line at each corresponding high from the markets. you can tell that as they are lined up next to each other... the highs of each wave seem to be happening at the same time. very interesting to me.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4:
[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

here i took that image above and put it on the line chart. i tried to make it so you can see both at the same time while they are on top of each other.

can you tell how much the 2018 is basically an exact mirror of current price? it's utterly remarkable to me that it has followed so far.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
5:

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

upsloping weekly candleclose trendline support dating back from beginning of 2017, using the 2018 bottom, lands exactly at the 8900$ area by end of march 2023

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
6: [imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

last picture. this is the logarithmic weekly price chart. this is a 10 year old support line that touches 8900$ area around end of march 2023.

Again... that is... TEN years. Remarkable big trendline support.
nemo_solus

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12/26/2022 11:38 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
All very interesting, thanks for posting charts of your ideas Cheese!

Having multiple methods point to the same sorts of conclusions is always interesting, although I do also constantly worry about confirmation bias shading our conclusions. I really do wish we would pick up one or two others in this thread with a similarly reasoned counter argument to the bears we seem to be at the moment.

https://imgur.com/a/xpEl4BF


A (short term) bullish argument I can make is that I think it is more likely than not that the cash in stablecoins will buy back into the Crypto market to some degree after the start of the New Year, back down to the level of the lower trend line support.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 12/26/2022 11:39 PM
nemo_solus

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12/26/2022 11:42 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
https://imgur.com/a/0hP2VQd


One other thing that has me a bit perplexed at the moment is that the falling DXY hasn't translated into rising BTC:USD prices.
nemo_solus

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12/26/2022 11:54 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
https://imgur.com/a/OosCQqD


OK, actually there is one additional thing bothering me: the DJI and BTC have been following each other in tandem up until recently. I can see why the FTX fallout might have caused the decoupling, but the trends look to have decoupled before FTX collapsed.

Is it possible Crypto is the weather bell for the traditional market? What would we expect to happen to Crypto if the markets continue to correct? I would suspect it would continue to fall.

https://imgur.com/a/YnTjN2H


Will be keeping an eye on how the DJI continues to trend and put a line on the week of March 13, 2023 just for reference.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 12/27/2022 12:15 AM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
Thread: Pennsylvania Power and Electric To See Rate Increase From 8.3 Cents Per Kilo Watt Hour to 14.612 Cents Per Kilo Watt Hour

byekitty

to Bitcoin!

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
i haven't been tracking the dow jones lately but i have been tracking the s&p500. S&P is currently at 3829. I really want to see the S&P at 2500$ and i hope it's a bloody painful/fast crash. Reason i want to see 2500 is that is a bullish bat harmonic (also old weekly support). The quicker we get to 2500, the faster we can actually start a bullrun.

This point i'm making here is a point that most people don't understand. The sooner you go down, the sooner you can go up. The S&P500 looks like a bag of dog shit soaked in gasoline just waiting for someone to light a cigarette.

The only thing i'm having a problem with... is again... time. Time is always the hard part. If we come down to 2500$ in one wave down? That can be the end of the bear market.

If we come down to 3000$ and hold as support for a while? It's going to take even longer to make that final wave down to 2500$ to be the bottom. I don't see the s&p bottoming before 2500. It might go lower, but that's the moment i will start to begin to be potentially bullish.
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
if the dow follows what i want the s&p to do, then the dow comes down to 20,500$.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/27/2022 08:25 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
One other thing that has me a bit perplexed at the moment is that the falling DXY hasn't translated into rising BTC:USD prices.
 Quoting: nemo_solus


dxy sucks now. it used to be useful but it's completely manipulated and fake and stupid and i wont even open it anymore because its not helpful to me at all to identify anything.

i think they realized it was helpful to people making money and starting putting out fake dxy data.
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12/27/2022 09:56 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
I'm not interested in crypto until bitcoin is in the 8-9k area. It might be happening by march 2023. Not sure yet but that's what i'm hoping for right now.

15k is not the bottom.
__________________________

Original first post below
__________________________

Thought I would log in under my account because my last post was as an anonymous coward.

Anyways.

I told you xrp would dump at 1.70 last year down to 50 cents. I was perfectly correct while you all flamed me for months.

I told you 69k was the top for bitcoin and you all flamed me for months.

I told you 48.2k bitcoin would resume the bear market due to a bearish gartley harmonic, along with hidden bearish divergence on the daily RSI, classic bearish divergence on the daily macd, 3day RSI trendline resistance, 400 day moving average resistance and 200 day moving average resistance. I told you this on march 29th the DAY bitcoin hit 48.2k. If you can't tell, i'm fucking proud of this one. Told you bitcoin would come down to 20-24k back then.

And i've told you that we are not bottomed yet. I told you 17.5k was not the bitcoin bottom. I told you multiple times.

______________________________


-We are weeks away from the bottom. As soon as the midterms are over, the politicians are going to pull the rug out from the markets. Some time in december looks right to me, at least right now.

-I think Ethereum will bottom in the 400-500$ area.
I think Bitcoin will bottom in the 10k area.

-The market bottoms on a SUNDAY. I just don't know which sunday. Yet.


_____________________________

I don't really care about ethereum or bitcoin so much, i'm going to buy other coins with higher upside potential. I'm just using bitcoin and ethereum as the indicator for when the market has bottomed.

That's the point of bitcoin and ethereum. To know when to buy other things with higher profit potential.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


400day because you dont want to gib away the 377 secret? :)
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
0. jk 5757.57.
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12/27/2022 10:11 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
A (short term) bullish argument I can make is that I think it is more likely than not that the cash in stablecoins will buy back into the Crypto market to some degree after the start of the New Year, back down to the level of the lower trend line support.
 Quoting: nemo_solus


i think it's very possible we have a very brief and rather violent altseason. i dont think bitcoin will do much at all. whatever happens it will be shortlived. i'm just staying out of all markets though. no interest in buying anything until bitcoin drops 50%.
reaandam

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12/28/2022 12:41 AM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
I'm not interested in crypto until bitcoin is in the 8-9k area. It might be happening by march 2023. Not sure yet but that's what i'm hoping for right now.

15k is not the bottom.
__________________________

Original first post below
__________________________

Thought I would log in under my account because my last post was as an anonymous coward.

Anyways.

I told you xrp would dump at 1.70 last year down to 50 cents. I was perfectly correct while you all flamed me for months.

I told you 69k was the top for bitcoin and you all flamed me for months.

I told you 48.2k bitcoin would resume the bear market due to a bearish gartley harmonic, along with hidden bearish divergence on the daily RSI, classic bearish divergence on the daily macd, 3day RSI trendline resistance, 400 day moving average resistance and 200 day moving average resistance. I told you this on march 29th the DAY bitcoin hit 48.2k. If you can't tell, i'm fucking proud of this one. Told you bitcoin would come down to 20-24k back then.

And i've told you that we are not bottomed yet. I told you 17.5k was not the bitcoin bottom. I told you multiple times.

______________________________


-We are weeks away from the bottom. As soon as the midterms are over, the politicians are going to pull the rug out from the markets. Some time in december looks right to me, at least right now.

-I think Ethereum will bottom in the 400-500$ area.
I think Bitcoin will bottom in the 10k area.

-The market bottoms on a SUNDAY. I just don't know which sunday. Yet.


_____________________________

I don't really care about ethereum or bitcoin so much, i'm going to buy other coins with higher upside potential. I'm just using bitcoin and ethereum as the indicator for when the market has bottomed.

That's the point of bitcoin and ethereum. To know when to buy other things with higher profit potential.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


It is not appropriate for me to speculate on the future price of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. Price movements in the cryptocurrency market are highly unpredictable and can be influenced by a variety of factors, so it is not possible to accurately predict where prices will be at any given time.

As a general rule, it is always important to thoroughly research and carefully consider any investment before making a decision. This includes researching the reputation and track record of any exchange you are considering using, as well as ensuring that it is properly regulated and follows best practices for security. It is also advisable to diversify your portfolio here [link to cryptex.net (secure)] and not to invest more than you can afford to lose.
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
something interesting i just found. if markets actually bottom on march 24th (friday)... then the stock market will start going up on the next weekly open on monday march 27th.

~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~

If your name is Joe then you should think of March 27 as your second birthday because it is now known as National Joe Day. And don’t worry, if you’re named Joey, Josephine, Joanna, Jodie, or even Jo Jo, this day is for you too. We may have a history of calling people “Average Joes” but not today, today is your day and you’re anything but average. So, if your name is Joe it’s time to celebrate a day that is dedicated to you, and if you’re not called Joe then pick up your phone and wish all the Joes you know a happy National Joe Day.

~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~

National Joe (biden) day

~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~

Eat shit joe
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
To go along with my "Joe Day" bottoming theory of march 24-27th...

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

This is the two week candle chart. Practically no one looks at the two week chart. in december 2018, we had 3 bearish (two week) candles right before the bottom at the white arrow. Bitcoin bottomed after the third big red candle near the white arrow on the left.

Will bitcoin make 3 big bearish (two week) candles again? And if so, will it moon on "Joe Day?"

"Joe Day" is the beginning of a two week candle. It would make a lot of sense to bottom at the end of a two week candle.

The yellow arrow on the bottom right of the picture shows the date of march 27 being the beginning of a new (two week) candle.
nemo_solus

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12/31/2022 09:43 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
One other thing that has me a bit perplexed at the moment is that the falling DXY hasn't translated into rising BTC:USD prices.
 Quoting: nemo_solus


dxy sucks now. it used to be useful but it's completely manipulated and fake and stupid and i wont even open it anymore because its not helpful to me at all to identify anything.

i think they realized it was helpful to people making money and starting putting out fake dxy data.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


Well, that's as good an answer as any!

The trouble of knowing what or who to trust anymore is a big problem.

Maybe it's always been that way, but not as obvious?

Maybe we're getting smarter?

I'll go with that. LoL...
nemo_solus

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12/31/2022 09:48 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
A (short term) bullish argument I can make is that I think it is more likely than not that the cash in stablecoins will buy back into the Crypto market to some degree after the start of the New Year, back down to the level of the lower trend line support.
 Quoting: nemo_solus


i think it's very possible we have a very brief and rather violent altseason. i dont think bitcoin will do much at all. whatever happens it will be shortlived. i'm just staying out of all markets though. no interest in buying anything until bitcoin drops 50%.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


A short term Alt pump does seem more likely than BTC or ETH, it wouldn't surprise me at all.

https://imgur.com/a/9b4Tc74


Cash still sitting at essentially the same levels as before, but with the start of the new trading year, it's something I'm going to keep a closer eye on now.

Haven't decided on what Alts, but probably just about any would be good as they are all so beaten down at this point.

https://imgur.com/a/zrbN93M


https://imgur.com/a/X3ORiAC


BTC has been mostly going sideways, but it does actually have a slight upwards trend.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 12/31/2022 09:49 PM
nemo_solus

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
Well, 2022 is coming to a close in a few hours, so I'd like to wish Mr. Cheese and all the other folks here a Happy New Year!

Not sure where 2023 will take us, but it will most certainly be in good company.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 12/31/2022 09:53 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
nemo_solus

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01/04/2023 10:26 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
https://imgur.com/a/Ytwr70v


Cash has begun slightly flowing back into Crypto.

We'll have to see if this continues, but for now I've decided to risk a little on the idea of a brief run up in Alts but ready to pull the plug at a moments notice.

Still really wary of FTX contagion yet to be hitting the market (Digital Currency Group/Genesis possibly Gemini and who knows who else):



The FTX damage is surely not over yet, but there might be a brief opportunity for a trade.

We'll see how it goes...

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/04/2023 10:35 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
nemo, i'm probably staying out of the market entirely until mid february where i will look to go short on btc. i understand why you are looking at alts, and i do personally think alts can do some stupid stuff over the coming month.

i'm just more interested in the safe trades right now. I'm just going to wait to short bitcoin sometime in february. some alts will probably double or triple, maybe even quadruple over the coming month. it really can be that stupid for alts.

If we see some alts double/triple/quadrupling... and bitcoin isn't doing jack shit? That is the sign that the big crash is near. Just so you know. Alts going crazy when bitcoin is going sideways is always the telltale sign before a crash.
nemo_solus

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
Yes, it certainly has some risk but I'm not going in by too much, so no worries on my part.

Just had to go with the idea and a degree of conviction to it as I had been posting the charts here.

It's being managed by the bots now, so it is what it will be whatever way the market goes.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/05/2023 12:22 AM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
XRP had some interesting price action back early on the 2nd, so just for fun and out of curiosity, I did an analysis of the lead up into and breakdown of the price on the 5 second chart:

https://imgur.com/a/ogiXU5M


It's interesting to see how these things play out, how the market can be manipulated. Must be nice to have the wherewithal to do such things.
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
[link to fortune.com (secure)]

A recession is coming for most developed nations in 2023, and this is where economists predict the worst
IMF director Kristalina Georgieva said simultaneous contractions in three major economies—the U.S., the EU, and China—will be the driving forces behind a global recession in 2023.
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
The imf telling us we about to enter a recession makes me extremely bullish for the rest of the year 2023 (once we finally bottom).

Fuck the imf. They never tell the truth.

Them putting out articles like the one I posted above is what I want to see more of. I want to see them telling us the sky is falling. They always lie.
nemo_solus

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
https://imgur.com/a/PCj6EKo


Just to update the chart, cash continues the flow back into Crypto.

We'll have to see if this trend continues, but the idea of a brief run up in Alts but ready to pull the plug at a moments notice remains my trade.

Still really wary of FTX contagion (possibly in Huobi):

nemo_solus

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
https://imgur.com/a/LlAFcXS


Tether (USDT) in US$ is having a hard time maintaining itself never mind acting as a proxy to the US dollar.

https://imgur.com/a/568uOyV


USDC isn't always exactly 1 to 1 US$ either, but it always very quickly returns. So, to me at least, USDC appears to be a better choice for a "Stablecoin" based on recent and past performance during the FTX debacle.

Of course, as they say "Past performance does not guarantee future performance" either.

https://imgur.com/a/wWk1WlM


I track the performance of USDT & USDC as possibly some of the drop in Cryptocap (a proxy I use for measuring cash moving in and out of the market) could be due to loss of value in the Stablecoins themselves.

https://imgur.com/a/wqY5xAO


BTC:USD has been staying inside the pattern. If the present upwards trend continues, anticipating sometime between Monday and Wednesday the price will interact with the pennant structure and we'll have an opportunity to see what happens next.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/07/2023 01:11 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
Mt gox payouts locked in on the 10th Jan.
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
[link to fortune.com (secure)]

A recession is coming for most developed nations in 2023, and this is where economists predict the worst
IMF director Kristalina Georgieva said simultaneous contractions in three major economies—the U.S., the EU, and China—will be the driving forces behind a global recession in 2023.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


how certain are you it's going to fall substantially lower?





GLP