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Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic

 
nemo_solus

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01/07/2023 02:14 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
Mt gox payouts locked in on the 10th Jan.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 84429597


I think they may have recently extended the deadline to March 10, 2023 instead:

[link to www.kitco.com (secure)]
nemo_solus

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01/07/2023 02:22 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic




The Justin Sun / Huobi suspicions of trouble continue to grow.

Recently, there is talk of not wanting to pay employees in fiat, but USDC/USDT instead.

Also, possibly Huobi is having troubles with Silvergate for banking functions (Silvergate was also involved with FTX and recently had FTX money seized by the US DOJ).

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/07/2023 02:26 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
Dash 6 month vs Bitcoin

Bitcoin is down 18%. Dash + 0.57%
nemo_solus

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01/07/2023 08:51 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
A interesting read on how Exchanges make tremendous profits when promoting new tokens:

The secret behind market-making superpowers is in the liquidity Service Level Agreements (SLAs) that are structured as loans of native tokens, with a cash repayment option. The market maker quotes a tight spread & deep orderbook and in return asks for a loan of the native tokens, but with an ability to repay it with stablecoins. As an example, a market maker would commit to provide liquidity and he would ask for a loan of tokens worth $1,000,000, with the option to repay the loan with USDT, instead of with native tokens.
 Quoting: Hackernoon


The Secret Behind Market-Making Superpowers is in the Liquidity SLAs
[link to hackernoon.com (secure)]

Also well worth reading his other articles:

Crypto Shadow Banking Explained: Credit for Market Makers
[link to hackernoon.com (secure)]

Falling Liquidity & Unwinding Market-Makers Show That Crypto-Contagion is Far From Over
[link to hackernoon.com (secure)]

Crypto Industry Secrets: Shadow Debt Market
[link to hackernoon.com (secure)]

Basically, due to these SLA's, there is nobody willing to risk doing business with anyone else, much as happened in 2008 in the Traditional Finance Markets and liquidity is locking up.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/07/2023 08:56 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/08/2023 07:35 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
nemo i know i said i wouldnt buy anything but gala just looked insanely good a couple days ago at .024 ... and gala is up to .03305 right now. gala went up 50% yesterday and my trade is up like 500% right now.

i have a break even stop so if it goes down i dont lose anything but i think gala really might come up to 19 cents by late january. we rejected at the 200 day moving average yesterday and we are flirting with breaking the ichimoku cloud bullishly. if we get above .04092? it's going to go bonkers up.

i will repeat this ad nauseum that this is not a bullrun but it is very possibly going to be the last bullish impulse before the bear market gets nasty. at least that's how i'm looking at things right now.

not looking to short for several weeks like i said before. gala is showing bullish continuation on the 4 hour and 8 hour charts, on both RSI and MACD on both charts.

daily rsi at 76 (above 70 = bullish as F).
4 hour RSI at 90 !!! (while showing bullish continuation) that's insanely bullish.
8 hour RSI at 90 !!! (showing bullish continuation)... this is ridiculously bullish looking.

gala looks set up for ridiculous price movement going up. i've never in my life said something looks like a guarantee to go up or down... but this looks as good as anything i've ever seen (at least for right now).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I think this is the short/violent altseason i have been speaking about potentially happening

no idea what other coins are going to do but gala looks remarkable for further price action upwards. i dont think it looks incredible as a buy right this second though... probably going to wobble around for a few days... but i think it's going to go up up and away by the end of the week
nemo_solus

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01/08/2023 10:34 PM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
nemo i know i said i wouldnt buy anything but gala just looked insanely good a couple days ago at .024 ... and gala is up to .03305 right now. gala went up 50% yesterday and my trade is up like 500% right now.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


https://imgur.com/a/MKrvYhk


Yes, Gala has been doing especially well, fortunately it's been a long time favorite of mine and was in the list of longs I went into back on the 4th.

Really, just about any reasonable Alt will probably do well as they have been beaten down so much the last few months. Also picked up APE, SUSHI, DOGE (for the Elon effect) and AVAX and a few others too.

As I was looking to limit my cash exposure, I went with the 3x leveraged tokens on these instead of the native tokens themselves.

Cash continues to pick up the pace of flowing back into the market, but the question is for how long and by how much? My best guess at this point is that it will only go to the low support of the pattern, but that should still be a nice little run.

https://imgur.com/a/SK75jDI


BTC itself is also doing well, but watching for what happens sometime in the next day or three as it begins interacting with the upper pennant trend line and/or the upper resistance zone.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/08/2023 10:41 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
one thing i always consider is special dates. they are often wrong but they are also sometimes right.

last year's bullish impulse ended on march 31st and began the bearishness basically on april 1st 2022. i'm considering right now that this will be bullish for the next several months and it takes until end of march/beginning of april for the bear trend to resume. this is the next special moment in time that i am paying attention to. this is all theoretical right now, just saying that this is a timeline i am considering for this all to potential play out on.

I would absolutely love to see ethereum at 2400$ for a top. We haven't gotten there yet this bear market and that would be the best possible place for the bear market to resume. I would love to see 2400$ eth around end of march. this means that ethereum needs to go from 1320(current price) and basically double.

if we see 2400$ eth around april 1st, you will see me as the most bearish person that exists.

~~~~~~~~~~~

short term i am tentatively bullish
medium term i am tentatively super bullish if it continues to climb upwards over the next week or two.
long term i am bearish as F. this is not a bear market bottom. this is a bear market, bullish correction. this is temporary. this is going to disappoint you long term.

if we go up to 2400$ eth by beginning of april? then this is not going to make the bear market bottom until march 2024.

Doesn't march of 2024 sound interesting? Considering march of 2020 was the covid lockdown/market bottom. I know it just seems obvious as hell... but if we top at 2400$ eth on april 1st? and if it turns down from there? It's a perfect bottom in march of 2024.

lockdowns.

riots.

plandemic 2.0

(I still think that all three of those will happen when the markets make their final bottom because i think the financial world is connected to the tyranny we face)
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/09/2023 06:32 AM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
BTC itself is also doing well, but watching for what happens sometime in the next day or three as it begins interacting with the upper pennant trend line and/or the upper resistance zone.
 Quoting: nemo_solus


id really like to see bitcoin at 28,800 end of march to compliment eth around 2400$.

both of these at the corresponding prices tells me bear market is about to begin it's next wave (hopefully last wave).

bitcoin going over 28,800 will really surprise me and tell me i'm not sure what is going on. bitcoin topping at 28,800 will tell me i know exactly what is going on.

just wanted to throw those 2 prices out there now, so it doesn't seem like i'm pulling them out of my ass end of march if they actually happen.

right now it's all theoretical... it's always theoretical... but those in end of march? absolutely beautiful for a top.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
btc at 28.8k would be a 236 macro retrace and a bearish harmonic (bearish cypher harmonic)

if btc follows the 2017 bear market then it won't go above 20k... before it drops down 50%.

so 28.8k means it's not repeating 2017.

not going over 20k means it is mirroring 2017.

basically... it's a gamble right now what will happen. i'm not sure right now and anyone who says they are sure is guessing.

i'll update if i get bearish again, obviously... just reminding you to be careful and use a stop. i am highly... highly convinced that this is not the longterm bottom. the only thing i'm not sure of is how long this bullshit lasts before it goes down again.

time will tell. good luck to you.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/09/2023 06:59 AM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
nemo, what chart is that? the stablecoin chart you follow? i want to play around with it a bit. super interested in it and can't see the label on your picture

(nevermind. i saved your picture and blew it up. saw that it was usdt.d)

all good now :)

thanks for the new chart to follow. definitely a good one to keep in mind.
nemo_solus

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01/09/2023 07:39 AM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
nemo, what chart is that? the stablecoin chart you follow? i want to play around with it a bit. super interested in it and can't see the label on your picture

(nevermind. i saved your picture and blew it up. saw that it was usdt.d)

all good now :)

thanks for the new chart to follow. definitely a good one to keep in mind.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


Hi Cheese,

Glad you figured it out - it is the sum of USDT.D and USDC.D (CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D+CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D). Basically, it is a proxy for "cash sitting on the sidelines" in the Crypto markets.

It has been a good reference to see overall how the market is trending and if the trend has locally reversed.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/09/2023 07:51 AM
nemo_solus

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
i am highly... highly convinced that this is not the longterm bottom. the only thing i'm not sure of is how long this bullshit lasts before it goes down again.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


Completely agree, this is not a long term trend reversal. There is too much bad news waiting under the surface from the FTX disaster that can still wreck the market.

When that starts coming out (and who knows when that may be, but likely sometime within Q1 as you can't hide solvency/cash flow problems for too long) we'll be back to the bears.

I'm sort of wondering if this isn't an "exit pump" of some sort.

For now, it's a good trading opportunity, just have to be careful not to become a bagholder.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/09/2023 08:03 AM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
i am highly... highly convinced that this is not the longterm bottom. the only thing i'm not sure of is how long this bullshit lasts before it goes down again.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


Completely agree, this is not a long term trend reversal. There is too much bad news waiting under the surface from the FTX disaster that can still wreck the market.

When that starts coming out (and who knows when that may be, but likely sometime within Q1) we'll be back to the bears.

I'm sort of wondering if this isn't an "exit pump" of some sort.

For now, it's a good trading opportunity, just have to be careful not to become a bagholder.
 Quoting: nemo_solus


looking at the usdt.d chart... it seems to suggest we might be repeating the july 18 2021 pump right now. if that is the case and if it takes the same amount of time... and if bitcoin does the same type of pump? this may last until end of april. i could see bitcoin going up to 56k. that's my extreme hopium top target. i just dont think it's going to happen... but if we repeat the usdt.d action... why couldn't it happen that way?

i would LOVE to see the usdt.d at the 200 day moving average when i'm interested in shorting again. i'm very into this usdt.d chart now. super interesting new way to look at the markets.

if this really follows then the bear market starts in may. anyone who follows crypto knows that may is usually a bullish month. people actually trade based on that. i don't. but people know it's usually a good month, statistically. i like to counter-trade what people "know."
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/09/2023 01:57 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
FYI nemo, gala up another 35% or something today. I sold my coins just now. 100% profit before leverage and it happens in 3 days?

I'm not getting greedy. I made stupid money and left the trade. Gala is showing the weakest sign of reversal so screw it.

Going to wait to re-enter anything... markets are too hot for my tastes. I'm not sure I will enter anything again but I'll let you know when I'm thinking about it...

As much as I want to long again, I feel like it'll probably be a short next.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/09/2023 03:15 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
I'm sort of wondering if this isn't an "exit pump" of some sort.

 Quoting: nemo_solus


100% thinking that is what this is. i'm not ready to short anything yet but i'm hunting for potentials right now. markets are too volatile to trade either way right this second.

still think it would be neat to see the friday the 13th crash i thought would happen a few weeks ago. that's like 4 days away.
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2023 03:28 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
USTD will be used to collapse the entire market
Its going to be carnage

If you dont know about USTD by now you never will, google it

My guess is some very big hitters want to control the world of crypto, as the world moves from fiat
They arnt going to let BTC/ETH live
They will create a way for something they control to rule the waves so to speak

It how its always been
nemo_solus

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01/10/2023 12:18 AM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
USTD will be used to collapse the entire market
Its going to be carnage
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7223896


Thanks for your thoughts!

Suspicions of Tether have long persisted. So far they have held it together but this time they may not be able to.

FUD is a normal part of Crypto, so I'd like to think I'm mostly immune to it at this point, but there is an awful lot of noise being made about what major exchange will fail next (Huobi seems a good candidate) as well as more than the usual amount of Tether (USDT) failure predictions. Interestingly enough, USDC is also being implicated as is Binance Coin. The Feds are all over looking at everyone's books and in everyone's business.

Not sure if you read any of the links on this subject I posted on earlier pages up thread.

Wondering what others are thinking on what may happen next?

Are we at the bottom of the market and the FTX troubles are already priced in, or are we just waiting for the other shoe to drop and everything crash some more?

The few coins I do HODL (XRP, primarily) are in self custody.

Aside from a little bit in leveraged long trades (in case we are indeed at a low) I'm completely out of the market, back in fiat, off exchanges and back in the bank.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/10/2023 12:20 AM
nemo_solus

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01/10/2023 12:29 AM

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
FYI nemo, gala up another 35% or something today. I sold my coins just now. 100% profit before leverage and it happens in 3 days?

I'm not getting greedy. I made stupid money and left the trade. Gala is showing the weakest sign of reversal so screw it.

Going to wait to re-enter anything... markets are too hot for my tastes. I'm not sure I will enter anything again but I'll let you know when I'm thinking about it...

As much as I want to long again, I feel like it'll probably be a short next.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


Nice Trade!

I'm still in, limits are basically set on the bots to just protect the initial capital with a very slow trailing stop.

My overall inclination is that this is a exit pump and we'll see the FTX contagion continue to take down more major players and the price in the market.

However, I could be wrong and this small levered position long is an attempt to limit my exposure to the downside but cover the case that the market has already fully discounted the FTX troubles and blue skies are ahead.

As far as going short, given how insolvent many players appear to be, I'm not sure I would take that trade as it may be that you win, but the exchange fails and can't (or more likely, won't) pay out.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/10/2023 12:30 AM
nemo_solus

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
i am highly... highly convinced that this is not the longterm bottom. the only thing i'm not sure of is how long this bullshit lasts before it goes down again.
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


Completely agree, this is not a long term trend reversal. There is too much bad news waiting under the surface from the FTX disaster that can still wreck the market.

When that starts coming out (and who knows when that may be, but likely sometime within Q1) we'll be back to the bears.

I'm sort of wondering if this isn't an "exit pump" of some sort.

For now, it's a good trading opportunity, just have to be careful not to become a bagholder.
 Quoting: nemo_solus


looking at the usdt.d chart... it seems to suggest we might be repeating the july 18 2021 pump right now. if that is the case and if it takes the same amount of time... and if bitcoin does the same type of pump? this may last until end of april. i could see bitcoin going up to 56k. that's my extreme hopium top target. i just dont think it's going to happen... but if we repeat the usdt.d action... why couldn't it happen that way?

i would LOVE to see the usdt.d at the 200 day moving average when i'm interested in shorting again. i'm very into this usdt.d chart now. super interesting new way to look at the markets.

if this really follows then the bear market starts in may. anyone who follows crypto knows that may is usually a bullish month. people actually trade based on that. i don't. but people know it's usually a good month, statistically. i like to counter-trade what people "know."
 Quoting: Mr Cheese



https://imgur.com/a/ZneBNbd


It's a bit ugly and just thrown together, but did a mockup of your July 18, 2021 comparison to where things are now. From the top to the reversal low, 48 days and ~50% puts us out to around Feb 16, 2023. I think that's too fast and too much for this time, my best case scenario is back down to the lower trend support (red line) before reversal. Happy to be wrong on this though. :)

https://imgur.com/a/UoDRPlq


BTC staying on course, still waiting to see how it interacts with the upper trend line and/or the resistance zone.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/10/2023 12:42 AM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
nemo, ethereum looks like it is at the fork in the road. either bear market starts exactly right now or it will start a major bullish pump upwards. it has to choose. right now.

here's why i'm leaning towards going down.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

picture 1, it is potentially double topping at a major price point going back two years. not good at all. especially with the bearish divergences in the picture below

~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

-classic bearish divergence on the daily macd -white lines and white text

-hidden bearish divergence on the daily rsi (with the daily rsi at 70) - yellow lines and yellow text

_________________________
_________________________

i'm ready for the bear market to end. just start dumping already
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
eth currently at 1337. if eth does get over 1355 then i'm considering that it might come all the way up to 1827$.

i just dont think this is going to happen at this point but if it goes up another 25$ then i'll probably buy some. right now? looks bad.

(p.s. bitcoin hasn't done anything while altcoins have been going up a lot lately. remember i said if bitcoin goes sideways and altcoins go crazy that is the sign that a crash is coming? that's exactly what happened this last week)
nemo_solus

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
nemo, ethereum looks like it is at the fork in the road. either bear market starts exactly right now or it will start a major bullish pump upwards. it has to choose. right now.

...

i'm ready for the bear market to end. just start dumping already
 Quoting: Mr Cheese


Howdy Cheese!

Yes, I wish it would do us all a kindness and just tank already, we all know it wants to! :)

https://imgur.com/a/sapJ21d


BTC is in a similar "decision" point now too - it closed above the upper trend pattern and now needs to decide if it's going to try and test the resistance zone or drop back down again.

We'll see soon!
nemo_solus

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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
eth currently at 1337. if eth does get over 1355 then i'm considering that it might come all the way up to 1827$.

i just dont think this is going to happen at this point but if it goes up another 25$ then i'll probably buy some. right now? looks bad.

(p.s. bitcoin hasn't done anything while altcoins have been going up a lot lately. remember i said if bitcoin goes sideways and altcoins go crazy that is the sign that a crash is coming? that's exactly what happened this last week)
 Quoting: Mr Cheese



Still in the earlier trades, haven't seen any reason to abandon the strategy just yet.

https://imgur.com/a/tqwDRmD


Cash still moving into the market, approximately 40% of the way to the projected target.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/10/2023 09:53 PM
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
.
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
Crypto people are fun.

All just bet, no bullshit.

Casino Royale
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
.
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
nemo just fyi. bought some s-coins again. thinking we are repeating the moment before march 2020 covid crash right now. as in, not repeating the 2018 bottom... repeating the 2020 bottom. wont be shorting until mid/late february at the earliest. not sure on a bitcoin topping price but would like to see 22/23k for bitcoin mid february.

i think we're about to have extreme volatility going up, followed by extreme volatility going down. followed by bullrun starting in april 2023. like a real bullrun ending november 2024 (when we elect the next u.s. president).

i think that shit's about to get real man. i'll post charts in a few days if it actually goes up and looks like this is happening. right now it's just a theory. getting really excited.
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
wont go lower than $13'000, statistical probability suggests price will start a bull run near this price. wont go to the depths your suggesting! lol
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Re: Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic
wont go lower than $13'000, statistical probability suggests price will start a bull run near this price. wont go to the depths your suggesting! lol
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80931127


i understand why you think that and your argument has validity to it.

i just think that everyone is thinking 13/14k will be the bottom and the whales wont let everyone long the bottom on 10x leverage so easily.

this is an opportunity to turn 1000$ into 150,000$. The whales won't let you take their money so easily. They'll make it violent if they can and they will make it not so easily predicted.

basically, i expect unexpected violent price action right now. extremely violent. like what happened in march of 2020.

13k is too easy.





GLP