Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic

Yes, I'm trying hard not to be scared by the FUD. After all, this whole Tether thing has been around forever nor is this my first rodeo, but I really do see how all these pieces add up as well.

One of the great advantages of being a TA purist is that you just ignore the fundamentals, the only thing that matters is what the charts tell you... :)

I'm happy with the situation, got in long at a great time a few days ago and have very little capital at risk but still have the potential for some excellent gains. So for me, all's good no matter how things go.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/13/2023 11:45 PM

regarding the tether stuff?
and the stablecoin going so high?

the stablecoin being depegged is strange but it does happen when volatility happens. going up is a lot better than going down. it's at 1.17 in that picture. again, above 1.00 is way better than below 1.00

above 1.00 means there are not enough stablecoins to meet demand. not a big deal. just use a different stablecoin. i'd definitely get out of the stablecoin at 1.17 though as it will definitely come back to 1.00 eventually. just get back in when it's 1.00 again and you're fine.

below 1.00 means there is not enough capital to maintain the value of 1.00 and they need to burn coins or raise capital to get back to 1.00 (but can't burn because of a crashing market usually so they go on a begging spree hunting for money to prop up their stablecoin)

i can't read the article on bloomberg



[link to www.coindesk.com (secure)]

Crypto.com Delists Tether’s USDT Stablecoin for Canadian Users

All USDT trading pairs, transactions, deposits and withdrawals will be delisted by 1 p.m. ET on Jan. 31, the email continues. All remaining USDT user deposits on the exchange after that time will be converted to Circle-issued USDC.

honestly i think tether will be fine and i think the crypto market won't have any nuclear go-to-zero type of event where exchanges die. i think it's just fear to keep you from making rational decisions.

stuff like that is why i unplugged from the crypto world and keep totally to T.A. and ignore everything else. the articles put bad thoughts in my head that doesn't help me. it never has helped me.

just bought some xcnusd at .0122 hoping for a double/triple/quadruple in price. i think the lowest market cap s-coins will do best. specifically the ones that got crushed the hardest. xcn is still at the bottom of the range as most coins have moved up already.

xcn sucks. just saying i like it for a good pop and then i'm selling it and forgetting about it like i bought gala and sold after it doubled. hoping for the same thing here.

Thanks Cheese, much appreciate your thoughts!

The Crypto market is undoubtedly manipulated, just like the traditional markets are, so I guess it really doesn't matter how much fraud there is, it's just the way the game is played.

Of course, my "conspiracy" mind has been thinking that if the Feds really wanted to cement their control of the Crypto world, they would use this opportunity to force liquidate USDT and USDC, but simultaneously "save" the market by replacing it with a "crypto dollar" or the US$-CBDC. Would be a great way to get instant forced adoption of your CBDC and control of the market as well with very few complaints.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/14/2023 12:25 AM

no problem!

You know... i don't think this is a bullrun. i've said that. i've said that i think it's possible we are repeating 2001 financial crisis... and yeah we might be...

other ideas.

2018 bottom? I just... don't think so. a lot of people want this to happen but the markets just don't look the same man. they just don't.

2020 covid crash bottom? i am strongly starting to think so. i said this a few posts ago but i have 3 things telling me this is a possibility right now. 3. monthly ichimoku cloud for bitcoin support matches right now to january 2020. 5 year upsloping parallel channel matches right now to january 2020 (for bnb coin). then if you look at the days around january 15th 2020... we just broke the 200 day moving average... we did the same thing that day range in january 2020.

anyways yeah, i'm bullish for at least a month, probably.

I really think mid february is going to tell us everything about what is happening. i really want to have another covid crash man. the money we can make if that happens is just bonkers and it's fucking easy money. easy going up and easy going down and then an easy hodl for the next 1.5 years until the next market cycle tops.

if we do repeat the covid crash this march then this next crypto bullrun ends on the day we elect the next u.s. president on november 5th 2024.

probably not much to add for the next few weeks. just expecting boring bullishness to continue for a while, while the forum slowly becomes full on bulltard saying it's a bullrun when it isn't.

Still just sticking to the original trading plan but as it has succeeded and more or less is at a decision point to either exit or continue to hold, I'm looking as you are at what might remain as an undervalued coin and possibly a good buy.

Not sure if you have tried it yet but TV has a new beta Crypto Screener you might find useful:

[link to www.tradingview.com (secure)]

I'll take boring bullishness, it's a welcome change from the previous boring sideways...

The forum sentiment here is a good (usually early) indicator of all sorts of things, Crypto included.

I'm not sure if you have tried any of these other sources of information, but TV has some interesting "non price" sources of data.

If you go to the TV chart Symbol Search field and type in INTOTHEBLOCK: you'll see all sorts of metrics available.

An example such as "INTOTHEBLOCK:BTC_TWITTERPOSITIVE" is a measure of social sentiment on Twitter that is positive for BTC.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/14/2023 01:43 PM

Btc- the ultimate shit coin, waste of electricity, too slow, can't scale, cemtralized C CP mining pools

Stick to something useful like X rp
X dc
X lm

you going to make me come after your precious xrp? which by the way, i am a fan of... but you going to make me knock you down into reality? okay

2017 bitcoin topped at 20k
2017 xrp topped at 3.50

2021 bitcoin topped at 69k
2021 xrp topped at 2$

2021 bullrun saw bitcoin go up 350% from it's 2017 high
2021 bullrun saw xrp fall 45% from it's 2017 high
xrp making a lower high in 2021 vs 2017 means that it is a dead asset and not to be even considered until it makes a low in a bear market that is higher than the previous bear market. which btw, is one of my clues that the bear market is not over. xrp needs to go lower to solidify the fact that it is a shitcoin and will not have a real bull run coming up. as soon as xrp is below 11 cents... the bullrun can begin for every other coin.

xrp is not the coin that the youtube fanboys tell you it is. it is never going to go to 100000$ per coin. the banks will never use it. there is no xrp adotion. it will never be used how they tell you it will be used.

You want to know what the usecase of xrp is? people like you buying it while the owners have 60 billion tokens locked up in storage while they slowly dump the coin lower... and lower... and lower... and lower... and lower...

you are financing brad garlinhouse and the fat schwartz dude. you are making sure they keep driving lambos. there is no lambo for you. they hate you. they made a scam coin to steal from you. congrats. you got got. the sooner you realize it, the sooner you actually start making money.

until xrp makes a low higher than 11 cents (and it has to stay above 11 cents for the next year and a half)... until it does that? it's a shitcoin. 100% piece of shit.

and as soon as it goes lower than 11 cents? it's a piece of shit in a bag of kerosine that just got set on fire. and the bullrun is about to begin. without you. again. another bullrun xrp does not a fucking thing. congrats.

keep buying their lies.

check it out nemo. here's bitcoin.

left side white arrow is jan 15th 2020. (2 months before covid crash)
right side yellow arrow is jan 15th 2023. (today)

both markets did a .618 retrace from the previous high... and both markets did that .618 retrace basically on jan 15th 2020/2023. The same day. Interesting... very interesting... still think a march 2023 covid crash is possible.

Not going to say this is definitely happening yet... but i'm highly suspicious right now.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]


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binance coin

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

very basic parallel channel here.

the 3 blue circles are the 3 points i used to make the channel.

the yellow arrow was the last time bnb(binance coin) held as support before the covid crash in march 2020. the yellow arrow was on that line.

the white arrow where we are today, is also on that line. the exact... same... line...

so bnb also looks like it could be repeating the march 2020 covid crash... not just bitcoin.

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last thing. bitcoin on the monthly chart, with only the ichimoku cloud on the screen.

honestly this is, i think, the most interesting thing. it's what got me thinking about this a lot in recent days...

yellow arrow on the left was a big bullish monthly candle right before the march 2020 covid crash. it was on that monthly ichimoku cloud.

yellow arrow on the right is currently a big bullish monthly candle and it's also on that monthly ichimoku cloud.


[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

Hex.com

Hey Mr Cheese how how can ALBT go in this little run ?

How High ?

Xrp.is security and as such will be wiped out by sec

my opinion on altcoins is that they are extremely more difficult to identify tops and bottoms than the old coins are. that being said... oh my god this coin. never looked at it before. it's gone up like a rocket ship the last week or two.

if you believe anything that i say, then sell it when i say bitcoin is topping out. in my opinion, bitcoin has another month left of going up so altcoins should have another month left too.

i'd like to follow that up with, "i am starting to think we may actually start a real bullrun in march 2023." i'm expecting one last final horrible crash before the bullrun can start.

i'm almost definitely selling everything mid february and waiting for a brutal crash come march 2023.

if you are a believer in us actually having another bullrun you could just hold your coins and you'll be fine. it's really close to the bottom. i just don't think it's 100% at the bottom yet.

I watched the AGIX run this last week and kicked myself for not fomo'n in a month back when I did my research on it. This ALBT has just partnered with QUANT and is allegedly being picked up by Binance which is probably why the run up.

Looking at the tokenomics at only 250M circ. supply it does have some serious runway left I think.

Which alts r u going to pick up?

Cousin of BLM co-founder dies after being tasered by police he flagged down for help

[link to news.yahoo.com (secure)]

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I've been waiting for a story like this to appear. This is a perfect story to have a repeat of the spring 2020 george floyd riots.

I've been saying that i think we'll have riots/lockdowns/plandemic 2.0 when bitcoin bottoms...

Well lately i'm starting to think we actually bottom in march 2023...

and now we have a perfect story for why we will have riots in 2023.

Sure looks a lot like 2020 to me right now... just saying.

Plandemic 2.0 coming now? Sure would make everything fit perfectly.

S.E.E.R's planned for 2025

i think the coins that have the most potential are the ones that have never had a bullrun, or the ones that are super new.

icp (never had a bullrun and currently around 4/5$. it can easily go over 500$)
ape (brand new. can easily 100x or more)
magic (brand new. can easily 100x or more)

those 3 are the ones i'm looking at right now. if we actually do have this big crash i'm hoping for then i will put out a list of the newest cryptos. the newest ones have the most potential to go the highest.

the old coins will not do as well as the most brand new coins.

nemo im getting the feeling this is a trap/fakeout rally. exactly like you proposed. trying to short a couple garbage unknown altcoins right now. this just feels TOO easy to keep going up from here.

not convinced it has to keep going up anymore.

every amateur T.A. person there is became bullish when bitcoin got above the 200 day moving average... the whales know that. i like to do the opposite of what the herd thinks.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

bitusdt (absolute garbage coin)

the blue circle on the left was price action above the 100 day moving average

the white circle on the right was price action above the 200 day moving average

in my opinion, they look very similar right now.

the downsloping channel was using the daily candle closes... at we are at the top of the channel right now.

and it just... man. it looks perfect to be a top right now.

anyways. sold all my stuff. trying to short this and another coin right now. we'll see how things go. don't think i'll be bullish for 2-3 months again.

i only follow bitcoin, but it's already had two sucker
rallies in the past 8 months, both rising 4-5k over
a couple weeks. 25% rise in 3 days feels super suspicious,

I say it's another sucker play, it has a desperate feel
to it. Im not seeing a degradation in performance yet
but Im 95% sure that bitcoin network is losing miners
continously right now. I know 20% of total capacity
declared bankruptcy in the past 8 weeks. my guesstimate
is 40% loss so far.

the whales have to get Bitcoin to high $20s to stop
deterioration of bitcoin network, and then $60k by
early 2024 just so miners reach breakeven, ie working
for free. how long will they work for free?

.

Cheese is on the money, and I dont doubt his data...but I'm the evil boomer that bought in low, got out high, and has fled the market...

So not saying hes wrong...but hes playing in an endgame market where sharks are king and things are volatile.

I get his mojo...hes playing the numbers game, and it HAS followed numbers on the most part. Im a spectator at this point... So I hope the best for Cheese...

But I feel this is a market that has come and gone...

Sudden regulations will be the name of the game...

but not because people made money...but because they lost...

Im BIG into having ZERO debt...

thats what people thought in 2014 and 2018.

Crypto is still growing, it's far from a dead market. Just the nature of the beast with a totally free market. Whales will play the volatility to staggering levels. Chartwise, low was in. From 20k we go sideways for another 3 months ranging 19-25k. Then things will start to climb. July should be above 40k. Followed by a slow 6-12 month sideways decline rangebound 25-40k. Sometime early to mid 2024 the next bull run begins and will peak late 2024 early 2025.

Where does crypto peak this run? I'm guessing 90k-360k.

I'd venture to guess % wise the following

60k = 100% or more likely
70k = 95% or more likely
80k = 90%
90k = 85
100k = 80
200k = 50
300k = 25
500k = 10
750k = 5
1M = less than 1%


The only thing to stop this would be cripling regulation, like total bans, which is not going to happen at this point.

Chartwise it is perfect time to start acclimating

starting to think that the next bullrun peaks on the day we elect our next fake president in the us, november 2024.

i think they will pump markets to get everyone to think "omg the economy is great and joe biden is awesome, crypto went to a bajillion dollars. i'll vote for democrats again!!!"

basically i'm banking on them trying to manipulate our voting habits and rigging the financial market to sway our happiness/votes. i think they will manipulate the financial world to suit their political agenda.