Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic

i was the only person on this forum screaming we were in a bear market for the entire last two years

you were telling people to buy xrp when it was under 2$ telling them it was going to 100$

i can pull up me telling you every major crash bitcoin has made over the last two year if you'd like. i've literally posted for every single crash the last two years. every single one.

Nemo I'm starting to get a little terrified for the markets because of the world war 3 rhetoric Biden just caused. I'm starting to consider that the ponzi schemes may be dead for good and that it may just keep crashing all the way down to 0. That they may kill all assets. As in all cryptos.

It's still way too early to be trading like this is going to happen... just telling you I think it could be in the cards now. If assets don't bottom in march/April like I hope then I'm converting to fiat and exiting crypto for a year. You might be right that we could experience the complete collapse of most exchanges.

I can't believe I'm saying that but if we have ww3 then everything dies. All assets. All crypto. All stocks.

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All I can say is that I'm starting to think bearishly. Assets are starting to curl downward. I'm not sure how long it will stay bearish if it does go down. Might be way worse than I initially thought.

Strange times are ahead. You might be right man. Can't believe I'm saying that but you might be right.

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We need some time to pass to get a better idea of what's happening. Probably won't have much to add for a while.

He's right ya know. You're all over the place and seem manic

Maybe this can help. So I work for a giant crypto mining company. And the going idea atm is to buy up all the assets from bankrupt crypto mining companies. We have no debt so I guess that's why they can do it. We were told 8 months to prepare. After 8 - 12 months Btc would be going up. So we were also told march/April is the crash I guess. So I don't think a multi billion mining company with no debt is going to make a foolish mistake such as investing into infrastructure if they didn't know something. I was told the founder was planning for all this to happen. I guess. Just take what I have to say with a grain of salt though. The company I work for has monthly meeting and they talk about all this kind of stuff. I have never attended and this is 2nd hand knowledge from my manager (who I don't really trust, big ego). Any way mr.cheese never stop fighting. Seems your making good judgement calls. Look forward to more.

Ps. Sorry for grammar, spelling. I'm lazy. And need my naps.

Really sorry to hear that Cheese!

Have you had it looked at yet or any plans to try and repair it?

Glad you're finding it interesting, and thanks for taking a different look at it - interesting ideas, for sure!

One element I'd like to add to the chart is Binance USD dominance (BUSD.D) as it is a major Stablecoin now too.

If this week follows what happened the past two weeks, the price should pump up again going into the weekend (or they are being so obvious to spring some sort of trap). I can see a little bit more of a move up before some testing needs to happen to form new supports at the prior resistances. If it fails, it might be back to the basement again.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/25/2023 11:02 PM

Well, nuclear annihilation would be bad for crypto ... and just about everything else too.

My fear is that this whole business is going to be taken too far and things quickly get out of control.

It could be just like the Covid crash was necessary to cover for the failing financial world - they need something new to cover for the next crisis. Can't do pandemic again, so maybe WWIII is how they think they can reset the books.

We're in an area where the markets are at a major decision point and the possibilities are very divergent. Literally, anything could happen. Maybe they will find a way to kick the can again, or maybe they won't.

I'm still certain the full extent of the FTX implosion has yet to be felt in the market. We had the initial damage, but the secondary failures will take some time to play out.

We'll just have to wait and be ready with a plan for whatever way things go.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/25/2023 11:05 PM

Thanks for that very interesting info!

Not sure if you have been following this thread for long or not, but a ways back we were discussing what the numbers might be for mining break-even. Would you be able to provide any insight to this?

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/25/2023 10:58 PM

nemo i'm probably just going to wait for the s&p500 to be at 2500$ before i consider buying crypto again. as far as i'm concerned, crypto is entering uncharted waters.

this is not uncharted waters for the s&p500. according to the s&p500, we're repeating the 2001 financial crisis and we won't make the final bottom until end of year 2024.

s&p has not done a single tiny thing to tell us it's bullish yet. s&p says we're repeating the 9/11/2001 crash in spring/summer of 2023. that's why i got so hypey about a world event happening in the coming months. an event similar to 9/11.

ask yourself one question. does the world seem like a 9/11-type event could happen right now? to me? it sure fucking does. if we have a 9/11-type event then markets won't bottom for another year afterwards.

mr cheese worried about becoming mr grilled cheese sandwich.

Why do you reason WW3 will crash all crypto?

I'm new to this thread so I have some catching up to do. As for the break even aspect. It's hard to get accurate information in regards to this, the reason why is because I'm just the miner technician. We have a variety of different miners that hash mostly for btc. Some are cloud hosted meaning we have customers that rent our miners or have there own miners at our location. In addition the company mine btc for it's self. From what I can say, the s17+ only make 0.35$, that's just one miner . Others like the s19 make 0.70$ a day. Based on my understanding and what I've been told these are long term investments. When the price of btc goes down to 10k it's not going to be good. But my job is secure because they planned for this. So I'm not to worried mostly =[ . These miners when first introduced s19 for example cost 14k. In 2019 I think. Now they cost 2k to 4k (could be wrong have to ask again). Of course if the price of btc goes up it won't be 0.70$ a day. When btc was 16k, each s19+ was 0.70$ a day. 365*0.70 = 255.50×8 = 2044$ in 8 years for one miner if the price of btc stays at 16k for 8 years. To be honest I should be using btc as a measurement of value not USD.but it gives you an idea. What happens when btc instantly go up to 100k or more and the difficulty stays relatively the same for that period in time, happy mining people. Most mining companies are operating in debt and didn't survive and more will follow in the upcoming crash. That's why they going bankrupt like Core Scientific . Yeah we are buying their miners. Some of them brand new . Debt is not a good thing and low btc price like 10k is not a good thing. Some at work have suggested we may unplug miners if it hits 10k . I'm sorry if I made any mistakes or didn't answer fully. This is just the limit of my understanding and what I've been told, so take at face value. If I ever get more interesting info I'll do my best to contribute.

no energy cost here.

and the mining rigs are only a portion.

Something else to add. Mining companies take up a lot of energy. If they take up enough energy they get a deal from the power company. So a lower rate vs other companies and or individuals.

I'm sorry but because of my position I do not have access to this data. All I know is 2nd hand knowledge from other coworkers. I'm just a mining technician. Repair dirty miners that's my job .

here's why i think we may have two major crashes left for crypto. crypto follows the stock market despite whatever you guys want to think. the s&p500 seems to me to be following 2001 exactly right now.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

white arrow on the left is where i think we are relative to today's price. white arrow on the right is today's price under that 100 week moving average.

yellow arrow on the left was when that white 100 week moving average fell below the yellow 200 week moving average. that is called a "death cross." That deathcross was the final crash.

you can think crypto survives this all you want. i'm telling you that it wont. crypto will crash twice exactly like this if the stock market crashes like this.

happy hodling. i'm almost definitely waiting for 2024. the more and more i think about it, i'm waiting until 2024.

come at me crypto moon boys. you have pain ahead of you courtesy of the u.s. federal government's fiscal model. crypto does not survive joe biden. nothing goes up under joe biden's presidency. he is here to slaughter your markets and he's just finished appetizers.

From debt cycles we are looking at 2H 2023 before we Hage a solid view. Miners day trades Eod seem to yield 2-3× btc moves which conversely falls in same manner.

Microsoft banned crypto mining on Azure last month.

Mr. Cheese, I think our thoughts are very similar. My numbers vary a little, but it's walking in lockstep with what you are trying to explain.

They didn't believe me when I said bitcoin is rolling over at 67k. Welcome to "not" even close to 67k. Time tends to prove all things correct, or otherwise.

You probably thought it was going to roll over at 5k, then 10k, then 20k, 30, 40, 50 and so on. You were right once good job. Confirmation bias makes you guys look loonie. Ok we get it you guys want to be right. You win you win nice job.

It's not about being right. It's about helping people see the bigger picture. And what u can do to safe guard from it. I fall in line with mr.cheese view point and others. And to have access to data like this, that falls in line with data derived from different sources. and they both pretty much say the same thing. It's going to crash and it's going to suck. What more can u ask for. I don't see anyone else giving knowledge out like this for free. So count your blessings.

Appreciate your sharing all you know! Like all business, staying as debt free as possible and having the cash to buy distressed competitors money making assets at a deep discount is an excellent strategy. The 10k lower limit is interesting to me as it ties in with some of the speculation we had earlier as well.

The crypto market is certainly long-term correlated to the equities market, no doubts there, so looking to them as a crypto indicator makes sense.

I'm mostly cashed out of the crypto market since I really don't have trust in the solvency of the market at the moment (it's a question more of return *of* capital rather than return *on* capital).

The small amount I still have in trade is long for now and I'm mostly just looking for signs of when to flip it short.

As I don't trade for any other reason than as a hobby, if it all gets lost, that's a risk I'm OK with.

One of the other telling things I'm going to use as an indicator for an upcoming crash is when Congress finally passes a law that gives them cover to exit the market:

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]

I don't have any particular "premonitions" of a 9/11 type event but I do believe that one will be used to try to manage the next financial crisis.

Go buy more crypto, you dumb asshole.

I'm glad I was able to offer a little value to the conversion. =D

Did this dip this mornings' markets?

hey nemo just checking in. I really am losing most of what little hope i've had that we are going to have another real bullrun before 2030. I mean yeah i'm expecting a little pop up starting end of 2023 that could last until mid 2024... but i am back to thinking this is the great depression and it will last until 2030.

I'm doubting that I will get hopeful (longterm) for crypto until year 2030. I'm thinking that is what agenda 2030 is.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

i color coded the arrows on ethereum for you. each color on the left is the same spot i think it is on the right.

basically i think ethereum can fall roughly 99% from where it is right now. if ethereum does that then everything else does too.

as in... great depression. which by the way? we haven't even begun to see the pain yet.

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Do any of you have the patience to wait until 2030? I do.

Do any of you believe "you will own nothing and be happy?" I do.

Does anyone really know what that statement means? I think this is what that means.

Howdy Cheese - thanks for checking in, hope your shoulder is doing better!

I see what you're saying with that fractal, and I don't doubt we are still going to see some down market action still due to FTX and other things, but honestly I'm not sure about that long of a time to trend down.

Fortunately, it's still tradable either way. :)

ETH could fall for other reasons besides general market conditions or it may just fade out over that sort of timeline too due to competition.

Today's little price bump didn't really cause the recent upper resistance to be broken:

https://imgur.com/a/HGbyGP1

Now that the Fed news is done, hopefully the rest of the week will give us a good indication of either breaking out or back down again, most likely to test the prior resistance as a new support.

https://imgur.com/a/P8wwvHX

Stablecoin cash has flowed a bit further back into the market on today's enthusiasm, finally at the next target I had in mind, the Gann 3/1 line.

Still long with everything from back at the beginning of the year, but considering moving to some short if we're looking more likely to test prior resistance for support instead of breaking through and out of this zone.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 02/01/2023 10:54 PM