Sales of existing homes fall for 11th consecutive month

"The average median existing home price increased 2.3% in 2022, from $358,800 in December 2021, to $366,900 in December 2022."

Meanwhile, the median available payment decreased from a promise of future income over the next 30 years financed at 2% to a promise of future income over the next 30 years financed at 6%: A decrease of roughly 38%.

Seriously, this market is taking forever to figure out that everything has become debt-dependent. A house is worth what its purchaser will pay for it and that purchaser is paying in debt. We're looking at a 38% decrease in what the seller is getting paid for a purchaser accepting the same monthly payment plan. Sure, there may be some wage inflation allowing people to increase their monthly payments a bit, but not THAT much.

house prices went up, not down.

you're welcome.

Neighbor just put house up, had Open House scheduled for two days after list. They were under contract before Open House for 240k-ish more than they paid in 2020.

location?

KB Homes experiences 68 % cancel rate in Q4 2022.

2/3 of Homebuyers walked away from their contracts in the quarter leaving KB Homes with a massive pile-up of inventory. In Q4 of 2021 the cancellation rate was only 13%

ETA: The cancel rate in 2008 peaked for many large builders at around 50%

Market is collapsing.

As some wise man once said,
"There is no such thing as A Housing Market".

"There are Housing Markets."

Central Florida

Stocks went to the Moon on Friday and are up pre-market today.

Looks like a nothing burger.

Brrrrrrr.....Money printing for the WIN!

In memory of The Big Fat Bastard.

Yeah, FL is holding up pretty well so far but it too will have a correction. I'm actually looking for a house in Tampa area - seeing lots of price reductions but not by much yet...

Investors are snatching up hurricane damaged properties and flipping in South Florida. Many people still moving to the area.

The economy was too hot, and the fed is cooling it off...When they are near the end of making it more expensive to borrow money, investors will pour money back into the markets...

Oh I’m sure it’s coming. Though don’t think it’ll drop to pre COVID prices personally. You’ll love living in Tampa Bay area!!

They’re pulling statistics out of their arse! There is either an average sales price or a median sales price. Either way though, an increase in either would be expected as the luxury market never really stops. The people that have money continue to buy whatever they desire. Thus the high end luxury homes continue to increase in price. If you divided the market to show what happed to the average starter home, say everything under 300,000 you would probably see the market slowing. The first part of a real estate collapse is the days on market starts increasing. The next phase is foreclosure filings accelerate. Finally it enters the terminal stage when prices start to drop. All real estate investment is based on the come. An investor hopes for a slight positive income annually, maybe 5% with the knowledge that the value of the home is increasing while you are collecting the rent.

Then WHY is it still considered a seller's market in most metro!?

The only way to get a house is to be a first time buyer or rich as hell.

Virtually impossible to own a home and move somewhere else.

THIS!

You folks keep posting and reposting a "housing collapse" that isn't going to happen in any hot in demand area. We say it over and over but you continue to to throw out "averages" and charts. Tell that to someone looking for a home around here, or anywhere that's in high demand no matter what the economy.

I live near Vanderbilt University, one of the prettiest most in demand neighborhoods in the country. There hasn't been a house for that price in over 10 years around here. Try 800k at the low end. There are a few crappy cottages across from a Catholic children's school, but those are not selling at all.

So I may have to take 900k instead of panic money, like in 2020 some fool might have paid 1.2 or something, but I had no way to get out that fast. I could also tip you off to many small towns around the South that already are to expensive for most people, as well as good, strong third tier markets.

I'm tired of being around new builds and gentrification anyway, I like semi beat down small towns with lots of older homes and that's where I'm headed.

I'm fine with market collapsing as long as price keeps going up. it's called inflation and it's not finished.

Just the beginning. Wait until you see the auto sector repossession rates next month. The canary in the mine is dead!

[link to www.realtor.com (secure)]


Above ^^^ pages of homes (1,669 total) for sale within a 5-10 minute drive of Vanderbilt University ranging from $300K on up.


[link to www.realtor.com (secure)]


Above ^^^ page of homes (548 total) for sale within a 5-10 minute drive of Vanderbilt University that have been sitting on the market for sale for 30-60 days.


You all live in LaLa land if you think you're in the same real estate market as it was 2+ years ago.

About 2 years ago the wife and I started scoping out homes in Florida. At that point, we could get the same house (specs) in Florida as we have here in Indiana for the same price & payment.

We had a time line of May 2023 to put our house up for sale. If we put our home up for sale in May we will still make a hefty profit. The market here in my county has not changed much, our profit margin has only changed about 3% since the fed began raising the rates. It's still a buyers market here as well.

The problem is we can't get the same house for the same price anymore and even if we found a diamond in the rough, the high interest, payment and payoff has priced us out of the market.

For the same payment we have here, we would have to look at mobile homes in Florida! We're in a holding pattern.

The struggle is real right now, holding pattern is a wise choice in this weird ass home sale climate.

Keep an eye on the Case-Shiller Index...

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

That is one of the most accurate charts out there. As you can see, it is plunging drastically.

Right, this fact is contrary to the GLP notion that there will be some crazy crash in prices. But, there's no inventory, inflation affects almost all assets, new build is greater than the mean average of a house in the USA, and many buyers are still paying cash.

My market is extremely busy, in the off season. 4 buyers to 1 house.

sales dropping here

not home price, but number of sales


the poster in a holding pattern - smart.

construction costs went up so high, coming down a bit.




I wonder what the longer-term effects on home sales will be as excess mortality shrinks the buyer pool.

Last Edited by beeches on 01/23/2023 10:12 AM

Our house in Ohio is now showing $4,000 less than we paid for it in 2019.

At the peak of covid hysteria it was valued at 230,500

The difference in peak price vs original price we paid is about $63,000

There’s plenty of overpriced houses on the market, a house is worth what someone will pay, not what inventory says. The bubble popped, why deny reality. The people who were willing to pay $10,000 a month mortgage for a starter home, are all idiots dying from the vaxx.

Well of course- it's worth what someone will pay (edit: and an appraiser, if applicable). But when you have demand that exceeds supply...I don't need to explain the most basic economic concept. But if there are four buyers and one house, uh yes the inventory does dictate price.

I don't live or work in a market where someone pays $10,000 for any mortgage, let alone a starter home (of course, that's approx $3.5 million so not sure what world you live in).

Building a 1,500 sq ft home in my market is going to cost over $300,000 right now, before you consider other factors (will it need well/septic, etc). And your average house of that size goes for about $200,000. And there are more buyers than supply. So tell me again what reality I'm denying?

Last Edited by Pabamus V on 01/23/2023 10:41 AM

I'm looking to try and sell here in Central Florida before the correction and move while the demand is still here..already been a bit of a drop in peak prices..

New Ford plant coming on line here so the market is still rolling.