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The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 81591109
United States
11/20/2023 01:03 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I have no idea how these young people are able to afford $1000/month car payments. Crazy.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 01:03 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
The sales side (or variable operations) in the Retail Automotive sector is car-shing. Service (fixed ops) isn't fairing much better...

 Quoting: Stumpknocker


People are learning that modern cars, with all their bells and whistles, complex electronics, safety systems, engine control, sensors, on and on are a terrible liability, even when under manufacturers warranty. After 7 years the car has little value.

The features (often mandated) on the very latest cars are going to make them impossible to repair outside the dealer network. Manufacturers have screwed themselves by going down the road of leasing car almost like a rental.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86538197


It's not just that.

$160/hour for mechanic labor now.
I just paid 2K for a new exhaust system on 2008.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73552535


Fix the damn thing yourself then. Everyone's got youtube.

bushfing
Flying Elvii

User ID: 86457401
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11/20/2023 01:06 PM

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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
And yet they want to build battery pants all over US. WTAF.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86537620


The Huge “EV” factory that Ford is building in Elizabethtown, Kentucky will end up being the Replacement for Louisville Truck.

Far enough away from Louisville to retain many workers, but far enough out to “Encourage” the more troublesome element to leave the company.
Flying Elvii

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11/20/2023 01:08 PM

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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
Well, when people are asking $26,000 for 1996 F250s with 220,000 miles on them, and $16,500 for 1998 Tacomas with 300,000 miles, there's a problem.

And in general, everyone willing to bend over, get reamed in the ass, and get massively ripped off, has already done it.

The rest of us said fuck this shit, I guess I won't be buying a car or truck.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75496707


it means the buying power of the USD is falling thru the rusted out floorboard.....hence why this administration keeps printing and giving it away.
 Quoting: 48Panhead


It means that all of our new arrivals need work trucks they purchase with your tax dollars.
American Poet

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11/20/2023 01:10 PM

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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
All markets need a correction. All.
The wheels of justice turn slowly, but grind exceedingly fine.
48Panhead

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11/20/2023 01:27 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
Well, when people are asking $26,000 for 1996 F250s with 220,000 miles on them, and $16,500 for 1998 Tacomas with 300,000 miles, there's a problem.

And in general, everyone willing to bend over, get reamed in the ass, and get massively ripped off, has already done it.

The rest of us said fuck this shit, I guess I won't be buying a car or truck.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75496707


it means the buying power of the USD is falling thru the rusted out floorboard.....hence why this administration keeps printing and giving it away.
 Quoting: 48Panhead


It means that all of our new arrivals need work trucks they purchase with your tax dollars.
 Quoting: Flying Elvii


you are certainly not wrong....lol
48Panhead
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 01:29 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I sell new Toyotas and sales were very strong last month. I sold 65 units myself. Made around 30k last month before taxes. This month has been a little slower so far but end of month always picks up. On track to do prob 50 units. 60k tundras and 40k Tacomas are still selling fast. Have a year wait on sienna and grand hybrid highlanders
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 01:30 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I keep hearing this, yet I spent 15-20 minutes this past Saturday looking at new cars on the lot at Tampa Lexus without being greeted or approached. This after rolling up in a 3yr old, clean/detailed Mercedes (company car). Sure I was wearing shorts, t-shirt, & a ball cap, but who isn't wearing that in Florida!?
I went with the intent of test driving a GX after doing extensive online research prior. I intend to buy in the next 3-4months. Tomorrow for the right deal.
I'm not going to hunt down a salesman or beg you to help me. Way too many Lexus dealers a short distance away. Apparently sales are going so well for Lexus of Tampa, they don't need any more customers.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 01:33 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I have no idea how these young people are able to afford $1000/month car payments. Crazy.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81591109


When I was a teen I could pick up a used VW Bug for a couple of hundred bucks, and I didn't have to have insurance.

I took Driver's Education so I could start driving at 15 1/2 years old, and get my Driver's License at 16 years old.

I also took Auto Shop, so I could have all the tools in the world to work on my used VWs. The tools were the most expensive part, and I didn't want to buy them.

The junkyards were filled with VWs, so used parts were cheap.

Making VW Bugs into Baja Bugs was the popular thing when I was a kid. We would fabricate the engine cage ourselves in Metal Shop, with tube benders and welders. If you had the money you would upgrade the engine for more power. I always kept my VWs stock, because it was the cheapest way to go.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 01:46 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I sell new Toyotas and sales were very strong last month. I sold 65 units myself. Made around 30k last month before taxes. This month has been a little slower so far but end of month always picks up. On track to do prob 50 units. 60k tundras and 40k Tacomas are still selling fast. Have a year wait on sienna and grand hybrid highlanders
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81031382


Most of the layoffs this year are in the are in the tech, banking, food industries, so some places in the US are still doing okay.

My area is still okay because it's mostly medical and retail, because of all the retirees here. The retirees still have money, unlike what happened to them in 2008.

The retirees won't get hit until the stock market starts crashing, and businesses fail, and eliminate their pension obligations. When they eliminated so many pension obligations in the 2008 crash it really helped out our economy, and it gave us a second breath. The oxygen from the second breath is almost gone now.

burnithidingburnit
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74000700
Germany
11/20/2023 01:47 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
SHIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTT!

I'll just keep driving my old beaters with my wallet stuffed full of cash right on by all you car dealers.

I can afford but don't want your overpriced payments. There are far better things to do with money (like eat) than scratch an itch for a new toy.

When an OEM comes out with a potentially affordable vehicle like the Ford Maverick for 24 to 28K, then a customer can't touch one for less than 40k???? That's pure fuking greed.
St. Pete Traveler

User ID: 80886902
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11/20/2023 01:48 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
The sales side (or variable operations) in the Retail Automotive sector is car-shing. Service (fixed ops) isn't fairing much better. I'm very glad I sold my store a few yrs ago.

I consult for several OEMs, and they are beginning to panic. At several, ROS, or Return on Sales (a closely watched metric) is down by 70% (+,-), over the last 45 days. They thought it was a blip at first, when ROS was down 25% and it just kept going. I will not name specific OEMs and risk violating my NDA.

Return on Sales is a primary indicator of a company's health. Some OEMs are now cutting production which is still no where near pre-Covid levels.

We are about to see massive incentives (rebates) at many OEMs. Once these start, used car values will plummet even further (because new become much less costly) Days to turn on used cars is skyrocketing (drawdown of 18.2% in October which was the largest drawdown ever see Zerohedge article). This will put some dealers out of business as they will find themselves millions of dollars in the hole on their used car inventory. Only the ones with large reinsurance reserves or with significant cash on hand will survive.

One of my points is; if you are in the market for a car, truck, CUV, SUV wait until about February. Prices will be 25% (or more) lower than they are now. Notice all the dealerships near you are jam packed with inventory again.

I was at a conference last week where JD P..... showed some data on a huge crash in EVs. The message was all the customers willing to own one bought one. No onw else wants one. BTW, the mileage range on all of them is grossly overstated.

I can't post links or support this via other websites. It MAY be an opportunity to short some of them. I can't, of course.

Sorry this is wordy, but it is just another indicator that we are again on the cliff of a major economic calamity. Act accordingly...

UPDATED:

Used Car Prices:

[link to www.cargurus.com (secure)]

And a shoutout to Liz...(EV's crashed 32.4% YOY)

[link to www.recurrentauto.com (secure)]

and Forbes weighing in with specific data:

[link to www.forbes.com (secure)]

This data is now stale and I will tell you it has gotten much worse! EV production is stopping at many OEMS.

DO SOME RESEARCH YOURSELF
 Quoting: Stumpknocker



Great post. Great info.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 01:51 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
It looks like Joe's Mafia has SUCCEEDED in creating a recession in high ticket goods like homes and cars with their extreme interest rates. The 90 year old shit for brains Racketeering Influenced Corrupt Organization was using Argentina as a model before that party got wiped off the planet yesterday.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 80365094
United States
11/20/2023 01:51 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
"Notice all the dealerships near you are jam packed with inventory again." Reminds me of the left pretending electric vehicles work....

Dealerships don't have everything. They definitely do not have pickup trucks. Try getting a 6' and 8' box truck. A mans truck. A workers truck. Not happening. No, men aren't buying trailers. They are forced to fix up their old trucks.

We are under attack
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 85635660
United States
11/20/2023 01:53 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
Over inflated Car prices caused by long term loans need the be chopped by 25% much like over priced real estate
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 85635660
United States
11/20/2023 01:55 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
It looks like Joe's Mafia has SUCCEEDED in creating a recession in high ticket goods like homes and cars with their extreme interest rates. The 90 year old shit for brains Racketeering Influenced Corrupt Organization was using Argentina as a model before that party got wiped off the planet yesterday.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74117049


Yup and they are so over the top corrupt it’s almost like they Are collapsing it all on purpose
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 01:56 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I sell new Toyotas and sales were very strong last month. I sold 65 units myself. Made around 30k last month before taxes. This month has been a little slower so far but end of month always picks up. On track to do prob 50 units. 60k tundras and 40k Tacomas are still selling fast. Have a year wait on sienna and grand hybrid highlanders
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81031382


Good then I get to repo those f*ggots in 2024.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74117049
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11/20/2023 02:00 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
It looks like Joe's Mafia has SUCCEEDED in creating a recession in high ticket goods like homes and cars with their extreme interest rates. The 90 year old shit for brains Racketeering Influenced Corrupt Organization was using Argentina as a model before that party got wiped off the planet yesterday.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74117049


Yup and they are so over the top corrupt it’s almost like they Are collapsing it all on purpose
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 85635660


That cant be ruled out. But when you consider the amount of money Africans, Indians, Chinese and Russian are paying Mexican cartels to guide them over the border, and if the Biden mafia is getting kick backs, from the NGOs and Cartels, then you know they at least are making huge bucks so citizens don't matter.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 81845295
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11/20/2023 02:00 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
car sales always slump this time of year.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 52568260
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11/20/2023 02:01 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I sell new Toyotas and sales were very strong last month. I sold 65 units myself. Made around 30k last month before taxes. This month has been a little slower so far but end of month always picks up. On track to do prob 50 units. 60k tundras and 40k Tacomas are still selling fast. Have a year wait on sienna and grand hybrid highlanders
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81031382


Most of the layoffs this year are in the are in the tech, banking, food industries, so some places in the US are still doing okay.

My area is still okay because it's mostly medical and retail, because of all the retirees here. The retirees still have money, unlike what happened to them in 2008.

The retirees won't get hit until the stock market starts crashing, and businesses fail, and eliminate their pension obligations. When they eliminated so many pension obligations in the 2008 crash it really helped out our economy, and it gave us a second breath. The oxygen from the second breath is almost gone now.

burnithidingburnit
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 52568260


P.S. Tons of retirees were murdered with the jab, such as my father and two of my aunts, but they were the older retirees. The fresh retirees are still kicking with mostly vaccines injuries, such as 2 of my brother, one that had a heart attack, and they other that ended up with arrhythmia, and had to go on medications to control it.

The open border is to replace all the old dead retirees, and the workforce retirees retiring right now.

The problem is the illegals are all unskilled workers, although they do pay taxes, many with fake Social Security numbers. I found my Social Security number being used by an illegal when I went to open a new checking account. You can't do any banking without a Social Security number, and the illegals need banking to survive, and transfer money around. Uncle Sam doesn't do anything about illegals stealing Social Security numbers, because all they really want are the taxes.
Lord-Moon

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11/20/2023 02:04 PM

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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I call BS.

You have no "inside knowledge" to share.

It's generally known that "legacy" OEM's are broken. They can't sell EV's and they can't sell ICE. The "market" for EV's is skyrocketing/beyond the inflection point now and the legacy OEM's can't adapt. Nearly all of them will fold.

Let me clarify, I'm not an owner of an EV. Would consider making my next truck a cyber truck in 3+ years. To me the critical missing component is range. I need 600+ miles range. Cybertruck currently does 500.

Battery plants are being built "all over the place" to fill the battery storage for the grid gap. There is an insatiable demand by utility companies for MWhrs of batter storage. It's a great business model for them, way cheaper than buying power from coops or generating peak power using NG and other sources. Battery buffering for peak demands is really a game change for utility companies. So apparently you have no idea what's going on in the battery space either.

Regardless of what "you" might think or want, in 10 years all cars and trucks will be EV's. I don't like that any more than most, but it's reality. There are many, many reasons beyond consumer demand for this. I would say that the hidden demand items are two fold:

1) Insurance companies will drive you to autonomy navigation to manage costs and if you don't go that way you won't be able to afford insurance. EV's are inherently "safer" than ICE and its not just about the propulsion technology, it's about the "the care is a software platform" issue. Only "new companies" like Tesla truly understand how to do this. They OEMs are totally and absolutely incapable of making that transition.

2) With autonomous driving will come the era of robo-taxies. All the young ones will want a side hustle of renting their auto out (uber style) without actually having to do the driving. That's coming in under 5 years. When it does, it increases the value of your auto by a factor of 7. Literally. That's because the average person only uses their auto less than 15% of the time. The legacy OEM's won't be able to bring this capability to market (see point 1 above.)
Anonymous Coward
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United States
11/20/2023 02:09 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I have relatives in Panama and there is talk there of complete anarchy over the government giving away land to China and Canada (China holds the largest interest in the project) for copper mining without a red cent going to Panamanians. At the same time Panama is doing a poor job of running the Panama Canal.

The Panama government leaders, that undoubtedly took bribes from China, is basically in hiding right now. Two protesters were shot dead a couple of weeks ago by a motorist that could not get through the road blockages, which have been ongoing since the news of the corruption broke.

It seems that the entire American continent is on edge these days. All the Central Americans that wanted to come to the USA basically have so now old Joe is getting his human traffickers from Africa, India and elsewhere with at least 4 billion people that would come if they could afford the hefty cartel fees and Biden kickbacks.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 02:09 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I sell new Toyotas and sales were very strong last month. I sold 65 units myself. Made around 30k last month before taxes. This month has been a little slower so far but end of month always picks up. On track to do prob 50 units. 60k tundras and 40k Tacomas are still selling fast. Have a year wait on sienna and grand hybrid highlanders
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81031382


Most of the layoffs this year are in the are in the tech, banking, food industries, so some places in the US are still doing okay.

My area is still okay because it's mostly medical and retail, because of all the retirees here. The retirees still have money, unlike what happened to them in 2008.

The retirees won't get hit until the stock market starts crashing, and businesses fail, and eliminate their pension obligations. When they eliminated so many pension obligations in the 2008 crash it really helped out our economy, and it gave us a second breath. The oxygen from the second breath is almost gone now.

burnithidingburnit
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 52568260


P.S. Tons of retirees were murdered with the jab, such as my father and two of my aunts, but they were the older retirees. The fresh retirees are still kicking with mostly vaccines injuries, such as 2 of my brother, one that had a heart attack, and they other that ended up with arrhythmia, and had to go on medications to control it.

The open border is to replace all the old dead retirees, and the workforce retirees retiring right now.

The problem is the illegals are all unskilled workers, although they do pay taxes, many with fake Social Security numbers. I found my Social Security number being used by an illegal when I went to open a new checking account. You can't do any banking without a Social Security number, and the illegals need banking to survive, and transfer money around. Uncle Sam doesn't do anything about illegals stealing Social Security numbers, because all they really want are the taxes.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 52568260


One other thing. I checked, and the illegal alien paying taxes with my Social Security number doesn't get credited to my Social Security account, because the name doesn't match. Uncle Sam has my birth certificate attached to the issuing of my original Social Security number, which voids all the illegals using my Social Security number.

There's probably millions of illegals using fake Social Security numbers, and Uncle Sam doesn't care, he just wants the money.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 59593727
United States
11/20/2023 02:11 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
HOGWASH
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 84793421


Says the autodealer reptilian salesperson. The only phylum of reptilian asswipes worse are realtors
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 84044884


the biggest liars on a car lot are buyers.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74117049
United States
11/20/2023 02:12 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I call BS.

You have no "inside knowledge" to share.

It's generally known that "legacy" OEM's are broken. They can't sell EV's and they can't sell ICE. The "market" for EV's is skyrocketing/beyond the inflection point now and the legacy OEM's can't adapt. Nearly all of them will fold.

Let me clarify, I'm not an owner of an EV. Would consider making my next truck a cyber truck in 3+ years. To me the critical missing component is range. I need 600+ miles range. Cybertruck currently does 500.

Battery plants are being built "all over the place" to fill the battery storage for the grid gap. There is an insatiable demand by utility companies for MWhrs of batter storage. It's a great business model for them, way cheaper than buying power from coops or generating peak power using NG and other sources. Battery buffering for peak demands is really a game change for utility companies. So apparently you have no idea what's going on in the battery space either.

Regardless of what "you" might think or want, in 10 years all cars and trucks will be EV's. I don't like that any more than most, but it's reality. There are many, many reasons beyond consumer demand for this. I would say that the hidden demand items are two fold:

1) Insurance companies will drive you to autonomy navigation to manage costs and if you don't go that way you won't be able to afford insurance. EV's are inherently "safer" than ICE and its not just about the propulsion technology, it's about the "the care is a software platform" issue. Only "new companies" like Tesla truly understand how to do this. They OEMs are totally and absolutely incapable of making that transition.

2) With autonomous driving will come the era of robo-taxies. All the young ones will want a side hustle of renting their auto out (uber style) without actually having to do the driving. That's coming in under 5 years. When it does, it increases the value of your auto by a factor of 7. Literally. That's because the average person only uses their auto less than 15% of the time. The legacy OEM's won't be able to bring this capability to market (see point 1 above.)
 Quoting: Lord-Moon


This is total bunk. Already, Toyota, BMW and other companies are working on expanding both Hydrodgen and its successor pure water, fuel cell which will make all large batteries obsolete in the next decade as a Fuel Cell is itself the battery.

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 52568260
United States
11/20/2023 02:15 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I have relatives in Panama and there is talk there of complete anarchy over the government giving away land to China and Canada (China holds the largest interest in the project) for copper mining without a red cent going to Panamanians. At the same time Panama is doing a poor job of running the Panama Canal.

The Panama government leaders, that undoubtedly took bribes from China, is basically in hiding right now. Two protesters were shot dead a couple of weeks ago by a motorist that could not get through the road blockages, which have been ongoing since the news of the corruption broke.

It seems that the entire American continent is on edge these days. All the Central Americans that wanted to come to the USA basically have so now old Joe is getting his human traffickers from Africa, India and elsewhere with at least 4 billion people that would come if they could afford the hefty cartel fees and Biden kickbacks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74117049


That's an interesting crack in the works. Thanks for sharing.

There's a lot of Americans upset about all the farm land being bought up by China in the USA. Uncle Sam doesn't care because he still gets the tax dollars, and he doesn't care where the tax dollars come from.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 02:15 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I have no idea how these young people are able to afford $1000/month car payments. Crazy.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81591109




Mithradates

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11/20/2023 02:17 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I sell new Toyotas and sales were very strong last month. I sold 65 units myself. Made around 30k last month before taxes. This month has been a little slower so far but end of month always picks up. On track to do prob 50 units. 60k tundras and 40k Tacomas are still selling fast. Have a year wait on sienna and grand hybrid highlanders
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81031382


Yodas always sell well now Ford Chevys and others not so much. The market is taking a down turn that for sure just drive by a new car lot they have lots of inventory. I'm sure interest rate play a large roll in this.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 75615507
United States
11/20/2023 02:18 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
2023 Ram 2500 now has 15% rebate - I am pulling the trigger
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 80210923
United States
11/20/2023 02:19 PM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
Over inflated Car prices caused by long term loans need the be chopped by 25% much like over priced real estate
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 85635660


still not getting the inflation part, I see.

.





GLP