The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links

The sales side (or variable operations) in the Retail Automotive sector is car-shing. Service (fixed ops) isn't fairing much better. I'm very glad I sold my store a few yrs ago.

I consult for several OEMs, and they are beginning to panic. At several, ROS, or Return on Sales (a closely watched metric) is down by 70% (+,-), over the last 45 days. They thought it was a blip at first, when ROS was down 25% and it just kept going. I will not name specific OEMs and risk violating my NDA.

Return on Sales is a primary indicator of a company's health. Some OEMs are now cutting production which is still no where near pre-Covid levels.

We are about to see massive incentives (rebates) at many OEMs. Once these start, used car values will plummet even further (because new become much less costly) Days to turn on used cars is skyrocketing (drawdown of 18.2% in October which was the largest drawdown ever see Zerohedge article). This will put some dealers out of business as they will find themselves millions of dollars in the hole on their used car inventory. Only the ones with large reinsurance reserves or with significant cash on hand will survive.

One of my points is; if you are in the market for a car, truck, CUV, SUV wait until about February. Prices will be 25% (or more) lower than they are now. Notice all the dealerships near you are jam packed with inventory again.

I was at a conference last week where JD P..... showed some data on a huge crash in EVs. The message was all the customers willing to own one bought one. No onw else wants one. BTW, the mileage range on all of them is grossly overstated.

I can't post links or support this via other websites. It MAY be an opportunity to short some of them. I can't, of course.

Sorry this is wordy, but it is just another indicator that we are again on the cliff of a major economic calamity. Act accordingly...

UPDATED:

Used Car Prices:

[link to www.cargurus.com (secure)]

And a shoutout to Liz...(EV's crashed 32.4% YOY)

[link to www.recurrentauto.com (secure)]

and Forbes weighing in with specific data:

[link to www.forbes.com (secure)]

This data is now stale and I will tell you it has gotten much worse! EV production is stopping at many OEMS.

DO SOME RESEARCH YOURSELF

I call BS.

You have no "inside knowledge" to share.

It's generally known that "legacy" OEM's are broken. They can't sell EV's and they can't sell ICE. The "market" for EV's is skyrocketing/beyond the inflection point now and the legacy OEM's can't adapt. Nearly all of them will fold.

Let me clarify, I'm not an owner of an EV. Would consider making my next truck a cyber truck in 3+ years. To me the critical missing component is range. I need 600+ miles range. Cybertruck currently does 500.

Battery plants are being built "all over the place" to fill the battery storage for the grid gap. There is an insatiable demand by utility companies for MWhrs of batter storage. It's a great business model for them, way cheaper than buying power from coops or generating peak power using NG and other sources. Battery buffering for peak demands is really a game change for utility companies. So apparently you have no idea what's going on in the battery space either.

Regardless of what "you" might think or want, in 10 years all cars and trucks will be EV's. I don't like that any more than most, but it's reality. There are many, many reasons beyond consumer demand for this. I would say that the hidden demand items are two fold:

1) Insurance companies will drive you to autonomy navigation to manage costs and if you don't go that way you won't be able to afford insurance. EV's are inherently "safer" than ICE and its not just about the propulsion technology, it's about the "the care is a software platform" issue. Only "new companies" like Tesla truly understand how to do this. They OEMs are totally and absolutely incapable of making that transition.

2) With autonomous driving will come the era of robo-taxies. All the young ones will want a side hustle of renting their auto out (uber style) without actually having to do the driving. That's coming in under 5 years. When it does, it increases the value of your auto by a factor of 7. Literally. That's because the average person only uses their auto less than 15% of the time. The legacy OEM's won't be able to bring this capability to market (see point 1 above.)

Horseshit.

EV's are dead market beyond a the ones that have already purchased one.

The world revolves around oil. You can't get a reliable EV that will haul goods. The cyber "tractor" is a joke. All they're good for is local deliveries. They can't haul a real load cross-country.

Cargo ships run on oil. They're not going to be replaced anytime soon are they?

You greenies just have no concept of reality.

I call BS.

You have no "inside knowledge" to share.

It's generally known that "legacy" OEM's are broken. They can't sell EV's and they can't sell ICE. The "market" for EV's is skyrocketing/beyond the inflection point now and the legacy OEM's can't adapt. Nearly all of them will fold.

Let me clarify, I'm not an owner of an EV. Would consider making my next truck a cyber truck in 3+ years. To me the critical missing component is range. I need 600+ miles range. Cybertruck currently does 500.

Battery plants are being built "all over the place" to fill the battery storage for the grid gap. There is an insatiable demand by utility companies for MWhrs of batter storage. It's a great business model for them, way cheaper than buying power from coops or generating peak power using NG and other sources. Battery buffering for peak demands is really a game change for utility companies. So apparently you have no idea what's going on in the battery space either.

Regardless of what "you" might think or want, in 10 years all cars and trucks will be EV's. I don't like that any more than most, but it's reality. There are many, many reasons beyond consumer demand for this. I would say that the hidden demand items are two fold:

1) Insurance companies will drive you to autonomy navigation to manage costs and if you don't go that way you won't be able to afford insurance. EV's are inherently "safer" than ICE and its not just about the propulsion technology, it's about the "the care is a software platform" issue. Only "new companies" like Tesla truly understand how to do this. They OEMs are totally and absolutely incapable of making that transition.

2) With autonomous driving will come the era of robo-taxies. All the young ones will want a side hustle of renting their auto out (uber style) without actually having to do the driving. That's coming in under 5 years. When it does, it increases the value of your auto by a factor of 7. Literally. That's because the average person only uses their auto less than 15% of the time. The legacy OEM's won't be able to bring this capability to market (see point 1 above.)

P.S. Tons of retirees were murdered with the jab, such as my father and two of my aunts, but they were the older retirees. The fresh retirees are still kicking with mostly vaccines injuries, such as 2 of my brother, one that had a heart attack, and they other that ended up with arrhythmia, and had to go on medications to control it.

The open border is to replace all the old dead retirees, and the workforce retirees retiring right now.

The problem is the illegals are all unskilled workers, although they do pay taxes, many with fake Social Security numbers. I found my Social Security number being used by an illegal when I went to open a new checking account. You can't do any banking without a Social Security number, and the illegals need banking to survive, and transfer money around. Uncle Sam doesn't do anything about illegals stealing Social Security numbers, because all they really want are the taxes.

Half the Republican Congress and all of the Democrats are in on this transfer of wealth program in the hopes that these illegals pick up where the Baby Boomers left off but it is NOT happening. Trump inadvertently pointed this out by saying these countries are not sending their best people. Which is true. A brain drain from other countries like Europe for example would bring potential future tax payers, but what is going on with these Africans, Central Americans, Venezuelans, Chinese and so forth are crimes. It starts with their payments to the Cartels and the Biden kick back mafia. That black market is now the biggest economic driver in the USA displacing a company like Walmart for example. So we are not getting the taxes and so forth from about 25 million inhabitants of the USA. So the illegal population inside the USA is now greater than the entire population of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Honduras.

In contrast, again as part of the Biden money laundering schemes, the US Congress has funded 461 billion dollars in illegal alien related assistance. That is more than the combined economies of all of Central America and part of South America.

So it appears to me that the US strategy is one of short term gain for their mafia members in the White House and Congress and their government agencies, and not one of building a new tax payer base as the kid that can't do math from Honduras is NOT going to become the next Elon Musk. It just isn't going to happen like that. So there is no brain drain into the US outside of maybe a handful of Russians and Europeans that amount to nothing in the tax game.

Good then I get to repo those f*ggots in 2024.

VW JETTA / NISSAN SENTRA ~$17,000 BRAND NEW IN 2021

NOW THEY WANT ~$24,000+ IN 2023

THAT'S 40% INFLATION RIGHT THERE!

I call BS.

You have no "inside knowledge" to share.

It's generally known that "legacy" OEM's are broken. They can't sell EV's and they can't sell ICE. The "market" for EV's is skyrocketing/beyond the inflection point now and the legacy OEM's can't adapt. Nearly all of them will fold.

Let me clarify, I'm not an owner of an EV. Would consider making my next truck a cyber truck in 3+ years. To me the critical missing component is range. I need 600+ miles range. Cybertruck currently does 500.

Battery plants are being built "all over the place" to fill the battery storage for the grid gap. There is an insatiable demand by utility companies for MWhrs of batter storage. It's a great business model for them, way cheaper than buying power from coops or generating peak power using NG and other sources. Battery buffering for peak demands is really a game change for utility companies. So apparently you have no idea what's going on in the battery space either.

Regardless of what "you" might think or want, in 10 years all cars and trucks will be EV's. I don't like that any more than most, but it's reality. There are many, many reasons beyond consumer demand for this. I would say that the hidden demand items are two fold:

1) Insurance companies will drive you to autonomy navigation to manage costs and if you don't go that way you won't be able to afford insurance. EV's are inherently "safer" than ICE and its not just about the propulsion technology, it's about the "the care is a software platform" issue. Only "new companies" like Tesla truly understand how to do this. They OEMs are totally and absolutely incapable of making that transition.

2) With autonomous driving will come the era of robo-taxies. All the young ones will want a side hustle of renting their auto out (uber style) without actually having to do the driving. That's coming in under 5 years. When it does, it increases the value of your auto by a factor of 7. Literally. That's because the average person only uses their auto less than 15% of the time. The legacy OEM's won't be able to bring this capability to market (see point 1 above.)

Most of the cobalt needed to manufacture EV batteries is mined by child labor in the congo (DRC). Child labor is being utilized in cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to meet the demand for EV vehicles.

This young children will be LOSING THEIR JOBS! How will these children survive if auto manufacturers slow EV production? How will these children support their families? What else can 8, 9 and 10 year olds do for work?

Biden must do something, or these kids will be unemployed and not able to work 80 hours a week! Biden should mandate that every American turn in their gas cars and purchase EV vehicles now so these children will not lose thier jobs.

When the majority of people can't afford to eat or have a place to live anymore, they stop buying cars.

And yet they want to build battery pants all over US. WTAF.

Fix the damn thing yourself then. Everyone's got youtube.

[link to fred.stlouisfed.org (secure)]

Look at that chart.
Yes, its real.

Yes, its going to go even lower.

Nation is in serious.. and I mean SERIOUS decline.

I call BS.

You have no "inside knowledge" to share.

It's generally known that "legacy" OEM's are broken. They can't sell EV's and they can't sell ICE. The "market" for EV's is skyrocketing/beyond the inflection point now and the legacy OEM's can't adapt. Nearly all of them will fold.

Let me clarify, I'm not an owner of an EV. Would consider making my next truck a cyber truck in 3+ years. To me the critical missing component is range. I need 600+ miles range. Cybertruck currently does 500.

Battery plants are being built "all over the place" to fill the battery storage for the grid gap. There is an insatiable demand by utility companies for MWhrs of batter storage. It's a great business model for them, way cheaper than buying power from coops or generating peak power using NG and other sources. Battery buffering for peak demands is really a game change for utility companies. So apparently you have no idea what's going on in the battery space either.

Regardless of what "you" might think or want, in 10 years all cars and trucks will be EV's. I don't like that any more than most, but it's reality. There are many, many reasons beyond consumer demand for this. I would say that the hidden demand items are two fold:

1) Insurance companies will drive you to autonomy navigation to manage costs and if you don't go that way you won't be able to afford insurance. EV's are inherently "safer" than ICE and its not just about the propulsion technology, it's about the "the care is a software platform" issue. Only "new companies" like Tesla truly understand how to do this. They OEMs are totally and absolutely incapable of making that transition.

2) With autonomous driving will come the era of robo-taxies. All the young ones will want a side hustle of renting their auto out (uber style) without actually having to do the driving. That's coming in under 5 years. When it does, it increases the value of your auto by a factor of 7. Literally. That's because the average person only uses their auto less than 15% of the time. The legacy OEM's won't be able to bring this capability to market (see point 1 above.)

The sales side (or variable operations) in the Retail Automotive sector is car-shing. Service (fixed ops) isn't fairing much better. I'm very glad I sold my store a few yrs ago.

I consult for several OEMs, and they are beginning to panic. At several, ROS, or Return on Sales (a closely watched metric) is down by 70% (+,-), over the last 45 days. They thought it was a blip at first, when ROS was down 25% and it just kept going. I will not name specific OEMs and risk violating my NDA.

Return on Sales is a primary indicator of a company's health. Some OEMs are now cutting production which is still no where near pre-Covid levels.

We are about to see massive incentives (rebates) at many OEMs. Once these start, used car values will plummet even further (because new become much less costly) Days to turn on used cars is skyrocketing (drawdown of 18.2% in October which was the largest drawdown ever see Zerohedge article). This will put some dealers out of business as they will find themselves millions of dollars in the hole on their used car inventory. Only the ones with large reinsurance reserves or with significant cash on hand will survive.

One of my points is; if you are in the market for a car, truck, CUV, SUV wait until about February. Prices will be 25% (or more) lower than they are now. Notice all the dealerships near you are jam packed with inventory again.

I was at a conference last week where JD P..... showed some data on a huge crash in EVs. The message was all the customers willing to own one bought one. No onw else wants one. BTW, the mileage range on all of them is grossly overstated.

I can't post links or support this via other websites. It MAY be an opportunity to short some of them. I can't, of course.

Sorry this is wordy, but it is just another indicator that we are again on the cliff of a major economic calamity. Act accordingly...

UPDATED:

Used Car Prices:

[link to www.cargurus.com (secure)]

And a shoutout to Liz...(EV's crashed 32.4% YOY)

[link to www.recurrentauto.com (secure)]

and Forbes weighing in with specific data:

[link to www.forbes.com (secure)]

This data is now stale and I will tell you it has gotten much worse! EV production is stopping at many OEMS.

DO SOME RESEARCH YOURSELF

VW JETTA / NISSAN SENTRA ~$17,000 BRAND NEW IN 2021

NOW THEY WANT ~$24,000+ IN 2023

THAT'S 40% INFLATION RIGHT THERE!

I am literally having my coffee break Inside a major manufacturing plant in Canada. Would prefer not to give the name but we build automated robotic cells for tier one automotive companies. Not ten feet away is the cell that makes the battery tray for a very well known truck. Last week my crew and I started building this cell. Today we are taking it apart. The company we are building it for has put it on hold for a year. That usually suggests it will be canceled. EV are not working in Canada. Especially with our cold weather. Our customer used US taxpayer money to build this cell. Easily $100 grand already spent on just the bases, a couple of material handlers and some assorted parts.
EV will most certainly not be the answer.
Ok break is over and I will be continued to start tearing this cell back down. Crazy times.

I sell new Toyotas and sales were very strong last month. I sold 65 units myself. Made around 30k last month before taxes. This month has been a little slower so far but end of month always picks up. On track to do prob 50 units. 60k tundras and 40k Tacomas are still selling fast. Have a year wait on sienna and grand hybrid highlanders

evs are sitting on the lot, rotting.

The correct term is oxidizing and rusting

Or "Collecting Dust"