Will China Invade Taiwan This Summer?

One – China is eyeing both the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing (and possibly widening) war in Israel and Gaza and they are weighing the benefits and costs of a strike on Taiwan against other determining factors that impact all of these conflicts. These other factors cover everything from how much the U.S. is prepared to keep supporting its allies, a quickly looming U.S. presidential election with a chance of executive change in November, and larger long-term geopolitical concerns for China that would be affected by an invasion, to name a few. Frankly, if China were serious about invading before a U.S. presidential election – to attack while the U.S. seems preoccupied this summer – it would have to start pre-invasion preparations fairly soon, given the scope of what a conventional invasion would require. On all questions, China has a lot to consider and a short time to do it.

Two – While there are concerns regarding how despotic regions often project via foreign engagement to distract and rally dissatisfied populations (an old trick, and China is certainly dealing with internal economic and demographic challenges that might give way to starting a war abroad) conventional invasion carries a lot of downside risk. As China’s economy stutters, and it increasingly relies on manufacturing and exports, it needs the world community to purchase the products it makes…and that includes the U.S. One must ask, “Would China gain or lose more economically by launching an invasion that would be sure to upend the entire world economy and possibly start a global war?”

Three – A wide spectrum of military factors suggest that China may not be ready to launch an attack this year. While China’s military capabilities have been advancing rapidly, a full-bore invasion of Taiwan would be a colossal undertaking that – even if short in time duration – would still require significant logistics, commitment, contingency planning, and materiel support.

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Last Edited by Emeraldlight on 03/26/2024 12:46 AM