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Change is Exponential, not Linear

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 580631
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12/31/2008 05:31 PM
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Change is Exponential, not Linear
Please view these images.

[link to singularity.com]

[link to www.kurzweilai.net]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/31/2008 05:33 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
a good new years themed thread.
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2008 07:45 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
bump
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2008 07:47 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
The "events" selected to appear in the first graph are totally arbitrary. Was the change from reptiles to mammals really the same as the change from computers to personal computers?
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2008 07:49 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
Change is exponential. Change is Glacial. Change comes in spurts of usually less than a dollar
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2008 07:49 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
The "events" selected to appear in the first graph are totally arbitrary. Was the change from reptiles to mammals really the same as the change from computers to personal computers?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 575994


It takes shorter time for steps in things

like it took longer for the earth to form than to life, than to multicellular life, than to mammals.
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2008 07:52 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
It takes shorter time for steps in things

like it took longer for the earth to form than to life, than to multicellular life, than to mammals.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 583542

I know that's what the graph is saying, but the steps are not the same. Lifeless earth to earth with life is a huge change, while computers to personal computers is a much smaller change.
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2008 09:24 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
It takes shorter time for steps in things

like it took longer for the earth to form than to life, than to multicellular life, than to mammals.

I know that's what the graph is saying, but the steps are not the same. Lifeless earth to earth with life is a huge change, while computers to personal computers is a much smaller change.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 575994



yes, thats whjat exponential means

thast the point of the graph

to show theres change in progressively smaller amounts of time.
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2009 02:46 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
bump
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2009 02:47 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
I think the singularity already happened and is in 'soft take off' mode.
malu

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01/03/2009 02:49 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
synchronism

Thread: 1908-2008
"By way of deception, thou shalt do war."

Israel's Mossad

"The truth shall set you free."

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Motto
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2009 03:00 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
Wow! this is like blither to the nth degree.
loosecannon

User ID: 585240
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01/03/2009 03:08 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
Change is exponential. Change is Glacial. Change comes in spurts of usually less than a dollar
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 583276



mostly true imo. Change cascades in avalanche moments of release mych like earthquakes responding instantly to long pent pressures.

Creative destruction. A natural phenom and not at all an exponential process as some falsely perceive.
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2009 03:18 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
Wow! You throw ten dollar word around like you actually know what you're talking about. Too bad you don't.
Normal Is Subjective

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01/03/2009 03:28 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
Change is exponential. Change is Glacial. Change comes in spurts of usually less than a dollar
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 583276


Change is really the only universal constant, the only variables are how much and how fast.
I thought I'd beat the inevitibility of death to death just a little bit.
starbattle
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01/03/2009 03:50 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
Change is exponential. Change is Glacial. Change comes in spurts of usually less than a dollar


Change is really the only universal constant, the only variables are how much and how fast.
 Quoting: Normal Is Subjective


No wonder I can not have peace of mind!
malu

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01/03/2009 07:55 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
Wow! You throw ten dollar word around like you actually know what you're talking about. Too bad you don't.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 585203


Wow! You throw A ten dollar word around like you actually know what you're talking about. Too bad you don't.


idiot
"By way of deception, thou shalt do war."

Israel's Mossad

"The truth shall set you free."

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Motto
Anonymous Coward
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01/10/2009 10:24 PM
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Re: Change is Exponential, not Linear
[link to exopoliticsradio.com]





GLP