Death, Taxes, and Mr. Market Calling the bluff | |
First User ID: 845580 United States 12/20/2009 04:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 526155 Canada 12/20/2009 04:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845663 United States 12/20/2009 05:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Nah. Don't buy the author's position that the dollar will get stronger over the next few years. If that is the case, why is Bill Gross of PIMCO selling his Treasury holdings and going in all cash? Obviously, he sees inflation ahead, and is going super short term to keep pace with the eventual rise in interest rates as the world dumps our bonds. If deflation were actually on the horizon, I'd be buying 10 year notes and 30 year bonds like there was no tomorrow. But there will be a tomorrow; it's just going to be super ugly as rates soar through the roof with double digit inflation rates. |
Dervish NLI User ID: 832592 Saudi Arabia 12/20/2009 05:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | How is anyone in the US going to be able to AFFORD to pay their taxes and pay off that bailout? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 526155Can you imagine if a business man did to an individual person what the US govt. and Fed are doing to the entire United States of America? That debt cannot be paid off. Thats the plan anyway. The only thing of value will be the LAND you own that can feed you when you can't afford to buy anything. When the bossman says you work for 1 loaf of bread a day, you work for 1 loaf or you go hungry. Hyperinflation will not occur because that debases the wealth of the elite. You know, the guys who run the system,they won't let it happen. I have said for years on this site that the goal is to "put us in our place" by keeping us dumb and hungry and happy for scraps. Its serfdom all over again,except this time its permanent. The only thing that will save us is the arrival of alien space brothers,Jesus V. II , the Mahdi or some form of global enlightenment. Since I do not buy into religion or have much faith in our fellow man, I went and bought a farm. the last curse in pandoras box was hope. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845680 United States 12/20/2009 05:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845658 Canada 12/20/2009 05:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 802656 United States 12/20/2009 06:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | "...the bottom will be in when the Dow/ Gold ratio reaches around 1..." Gold bugs are right, gold is a storeholder of wealth. If the DOW declines to 5,000 then gold appreciates to 5,000. If the DOW declines to 500 it has fallen nearly 95% but gold has only fallen about 50%. Which would you rather hold? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 802656 United States 12/20/2009 06:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 1 more thing. This time around it will be far worse than the Great Depression due to labor specialization. In the 1st Great Depression a much larger percentage of the population was involved in agriculture a very general profession. Now we have 1,000's of professional specializations dependent on the existing global economic structure. All those specializations will have to learn new skills, and the more specialized someone is, the harder will be the fall. This does not end well. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 380182 Australia 12/20/2009 06:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | go and watch myspacesecrets on youtube here => [link to www.youtube.com] He has been spot of for years. |
ERIN User ID: 845708 United States 12/20/2009 06:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the United States in some elite company--only Japan, Lebanon and Zimbabwe are higher. That's only the start. Add household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting off-balance-sheet swaps and derivatives) and our total debt is 557% of GDP. Less than three years ago our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the first time." Add the unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we're at 840% of GDP. The world has not seen such debt levels in modern history. This debt is not serviceable. Imagine that total debt is 557% of GDP, without considering entitlements. The interest on the debt will consume all the tax revenues of the country in the not-too-distant future. Then there will be no way out but to create more debt in order to finance the old debt. It assures a period of economic devastation. In a last, desperate attempt, politicians at the federal and local levels will raise taxes to astronomical heights to raise revenues. And that only assures destruction of the economy. Forget the fable of economic recovery. Unless there is a change in Washington by next year's election, there will be no way to turn back. Japan's recession is now 19 years old. It has the highest debt-to-GDP level (227%) of any industrialized country. The Fitch rating agency is talking about a potential downgrade of Japan's debt. Japan's stock market is still down 75% from the high in 1990. We predict it will make new bear market lows next year. That will make it a 20-year-long bull market [bear market makes more sense - Mish] on the way to 25 years. The bulls in the U.S. should consider that possibility in the formerly great United States of America. I do not believe the bullish theory that the U.S. situation is different than Japan's. Ours is so much worse. [link to globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 368888 United States 12/20/2009 07:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | "...the bottom will be in when the Dow/ Gold ratio reaches around 1..." Quoting: Anonymous Coward 802656Gold bugs are right, gold is a storeholder of wealth. If the DOW declines to 5,000 then gold appreciates to 5,000. If the DOW declines to 500 it has fallen nearly 95% but gold has only fallen about 50%. Which would you rather hold? Ding ding ding, we have a winner folks. 1. increase your pantry 2. pay off your debts 3. if you have any extra, gold/silver bullion. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845708 United States 12/20/2009 07:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845708 United States 12/20/2009 07:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Don't Monetize the Debt The president of the Dallas Fed on inflation risk and central bank independence. [link to online.wsj.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845708 United States 12/20/2009 07:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Jim Willie sent out the following note this afternoon: FW: contact with strong ties to info sources huge demands for physical gold are coming from entities holding allocated gold accounts they have deposits at gold bullion banks they are showing up unannounced, with full paperwork, demanding gold to be handed over paperwork consists of lists, bars, dates, serial numbers, weights, and smelter hallmark brands this is a full blown run on the bullion banks it is unclear whether they only doubt their gold remains in possession, or if fake gold is held they are being shown the stacks of shiny pretty gold bars, and urged not to take possession but the entities are not convinced their particular own gold bars are there big clearing houses are owed gold bullion, and the bullion banks do not have it at the same time, the delivery process has been corrupted big cash bribes are being offered in bids to settle in cash without delivery in futures contracts in fact, the cash bribes are patterned in a reduction over consecutive days this gives the impression of the extraordinary period being only a brief segment of time this is a full blown run on the bullion banks we are fast entering the FRAMEWORK of divergence between paper gold and physical gold my source confirmed that the divergence is an end game symptom geez! we might see a $970 gold price before the system just shuts down this is a run on the gold banks did I mention this is a run on the gold banks ?? soon we might not have any prices listed on the gold exchanges soon we might hear of an important default, from a party using courts and legal staffs soon the physical gold price will be some average of five known private party large volume traders this is a run on the gold banks / jim [link to harveyorgan.blogspot.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845708 United States 12/20/2009 08:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 12.7 trillion donated to bankers, solving a problem they created, buy bonds, or gamble in the markets? Inflation on the way, could the US default on its debt? Food aid and unemployment rising together, yet another bank collapse, Dubai bailed out. [link to theinternationalforecaster.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845708 United States 12/20/2009 08:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo America's Social Security Trust Fund will go bankrupt; both gold and the Japanese yen will crash; and China's currency will devalue as bad loans catch up with the over-stretched banking system – all in the course of 2010. [link to www.telegraph.co.uk] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 709239 United States 12/20/2009 08:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845708 United States 12/20/2009 09:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value=" [link to www.youtube.com] name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src=" [link to www.youtube.com] type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 841284 United States 12/20/2009 09:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Bob Chapman's analysis is very similar. "It looks like the stock market is finally ready to rollover. It is in a well-defined head and shoulders pattern that began in September. This is what happens when trillions are given to the financial sector and a pittance to the public. This is a control planner’s formula for disaster. The present dollar rally could end at 78 or 80 and then the test of 71.18. Our government rigged this rally using the currency swaps they created out of thin air in March. If banks do not increase lending by 20% in 2010, a second credit crisis will beset markets. Stocks are way over valued having baked in a strong recovery with the help of TARP funds. This market reminds us of the alcoholic who has to have a drink upon rising and says he is not an alcoholic. All Wall Street knows is profits and they could care less about unemployment. The debasement of our currency means nothing. Speculation wages again with no thought of lower financial profits in the first quarter and a distinct chance of a second credit crisis. Ignored is the government’s manipulative presence in the market, or market fundamentals. Today’s speculation reflects the lack of trust, confidence and lack of fiscal and monetary discipline. The theme is we had better make it while we can, because there may be no tomorrow. As a result the probability of a steep market correction is strong. What we are involved in economically and financially is not a common correction, it is a correction in a bear market and few, even professionals, see this. This happened in the early 1930s and by the end of 1940 we still had not exited depression. We had to arrange a war to extricate ourselves." Much more at the link: [link to www.theinternationalforecaster.com] |
Reality Is B.S
User ID: 845785 United States 12/20/2009 09:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is true. The only thing people in the U.S. HAVE to do is die and pay taxes. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 709239Well, I do my best to not pay taxes, and I am fighting dying every day! Only a fool would pay taxes into this system at this point. Throwing more erroneous useless information into the original arguement. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 779573 United States 12/20/2009 09:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845814 Ireland 12/20/2009 09:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | "All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." --John Adams (1735-1826) Founding Father, 2nd U.S. President Still true, John Adams. Still true. The Real Cause of the Current Financial Crisis [link to www.youtube.com] "Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." - John Maynard Keynes, 1919 [link to en.wikiquote.org] "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." - Ludwig Von Mises, Human Action, a Treatise on Economics, (Fox & Wilkes, 4th rev. ed., 1963) [link to en.wikiquote.org] Ten Lost Years [link to www.youtube.com] The Money That Is Sold Abroad Is You [link to www.youtube.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 773082 United States 12/20/2009 09:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The global economic situation is unprecedented in history. The fact is nobody knows if we'll get hyperinflation or a super depression. My guess is that shadowstats has it right; hyperinflationary depression, the worst of both worlds. We'll soon find out... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 839787 United States 12/20/2009 10:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Excellent read OP. It is obvious that the dollar will rise at least on the short term due to all the debt defaults that are happening (and will happen). Just look at how gold fell from almost $1300 to its current levels. I disagree though with the following assertions 1)Long-term treasuries will rise on the long term This assumes that there will be constant demand for US treasuries, that US treasuries will always be perceived as risk free and that the US government will not run into any cash flow problems when it comes to debt service. The ever increasing supply of treasuries seems to negate a lot of the appetite for demand, and there are simply not enough dollars to buy treasuries at this rate of increase (which is what China has mentioned recently). The increased supplies of treasuries and falling tax receipts will may lead to at least some to doubt the US's ability to repay its debt (this has already happened - check out the news regarding Australia's shadow finance minister's statements about the US debt). Finally, the burgeoning US debt will at some point bite the country's ass, for if the conditions mentioned earlier materialize (increased debt, falling demand due to shortage of dollars, falling tax receipts) and when sovereigns begin to publicly doubt the US's debt's risk free status then the country may have to default on its debt, or print its way through it. 2) Gold will fall to $600 This may be possible on the short term, but I find it highly unlikely on the long term. Since there is a strong chance that there will be problems in the treasury market, there seems to be two possible scenarios **A failure in the treasury market (nobody wants to buy) will increase the dollar's value and lower gold's, but on the long run will be bullish for gold, as a debtor nation's failure to secure additional debt will ultimately lead to questions regarding its ability to repay them, which will naturally lead to doubts regarding the value of the currency it prints. **A debt default on the part of the US will naturally lead to a decline in the value of the currency it prints, which is bullish for the dollar Note that if either scenario materializes the US dollar will most likely lose its reserve status, which will lead to a decline in its value as its reserve status forms a large part of its appeal as a safe haven. Also note that in the 1930s the dollar was pegged with gold (yes after 1933 gold was banned in US, but foreign countries could still exchange dollars for gold), thus the deflation which occurred in the 1930s could be attributable to a rise in the value of gold itself, and not necessarily the paper dollar. This is very likely especially given that gold was legal tender in the US prior to 1933. Anyway I guess 2010 will be an interesting year. Good luck yall. Store non-perishable food (honey, white rice, sugar, canned food etc...) |
Eagle # 1 User ID: 822411 United States 12/20/2009 10:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You have a lot of correct figures, but your whole assumption on defationary sprial leaves OUT MANY variables, such as: 1. The government/crooked politicians/banksters ARE in control and they DON'T want their gravy train to derail ! 2. The people ARE armed, and when denied food via price, shortage, whatever, they will NOT listen to hungry children cry and wives entrete them into SOME sort of action. 3. You ASSUME people with money buying bonds that pay 3.5 % in THIRTY YEARS, while inflation IS NOW at 7%. 4. You ASSUME bonds ARE the 'safe haven', while GOLD/SILVER has occupied THAT role for thousands of years. 5. You ASSUME that FIAT paper will STILL be accepted, while it's destruction continues around the world. Voltare (Sp?) was right; "The intrinsic value of all FIAT money is ZERO." Nice set of assumptions and well written. I see the hyperinflation FIRST; then the deflationary spiral, even though it seems that the trillions spent have not YET affected prices. But massive bank failures, as a result of the 500 Trillion in Derivatives overhanging the world, are STILL to make their appearance, along with the overvalued 'assets' in the banking system. Eagle |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 822411 United States 12/20/2009 11:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845897 United States 12/20/2009 11:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ERIN .... All I can quote is the old expression that " Figures don't LIE, BUT, liers FIGURE." Quoting: Eagle # 1 822411You have a lot of correct figures, but your whole assumption on defationary sprial leaves OUT MANY variables, such as: 1. The government/crooked politicians/banksters ARE in control and they DON'T want their gravy train to derail ! 2. The people ARE armed, and when denied food via price, shortage, whatever, they will NOT listen to hungry children cry and wives entrete them into SOME sort of action. 3. You ASSUME people with money buying bonds that pay 3.5 % in THIRTY YEARS, while inflation IS NOW at 7%. 4. You ASSUME bonds ARE the 'safe haven', while GOLD/SILVER has occupied THAT role for thousands of years. 5. You ASSUME that FIAT paper will STILL be accepted, while it's destruction continues around the world. Voltare (Sp?) was right; "The intrinsic value of all FIAT money is ZERO." Nice set of assumptions and well written. I see the hyperinflation FIRST; then the deflationary spiral, even though it seems that the trillions spent have not YET affected prices. But massive bank failures, as a result of the 500 Trillion in Derivatives overhanging the world, are STILL to make their appearance, along with the overvalued 'assets' in the banking system. Eagle whoa....that's a real ballsy call. fucking douchebag. growing tiresome of the armchair economists shoehorning every scenario to fit their collective thesis-which is invariably....gold to the moon.....hyperinflation.....all our debts can be paid off by going to work for 3 seconds. goldbugs need to pull their heads out before they get shit on. btw unless there is eternal hyperflation, it will be followed by deflation. again nice call eagle #dumbass |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 550635 United States 12/20/2009 11:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | How is anyone in the US going to be able to AFFORD to pay their taxes and pay off that bailout? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 526155Can you imagine if a business man did to an individual person what the US govt. and Fed are doing to the entire United States of America? Wait till cap and trade, health care reform kicks in. Then Emanuel takes all the youth and makes them work for free for three months a year. Wait till power bills triple from cap and trade. They seek riots in order to collapse the dollar. They may eventually get it, but I believe they greatly underestimate the outcome. So far, everything they try is a failure. Their riot creation will be too. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 845904 Canada 12/20/2009 11:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
ERIN User ID: 845708 United States 12/21/2009 12:01 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value=" [link to www.youtube.com] name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src=" [link to www.youtube.com] type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> |