SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Hello!

AURORA SURPRISE: A stream of solar wind hit Earth on Jan. 25th. The impact sparked an unexpected G1-class geomagnetic storm. "Suddenly, the whole sky was moving and dancing. It felt like aurora was hitting us with a hammer onto the head," reports Markus Varik, who sends this picture from Tromsø, Norway:

https://imgur.com/ejRYq52

"For a moment, local magnetometers dipped down to more than -1000 nT!" says Varik. "A significant magnetic disturbance was underway, and the auroras were visible despite bright moonlight."

The solar wind was expected. It emerged from a small hole in the sun's atmosphere, which forecasters had been tracking for days. The surprise occurred when a crack formed in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured in, fueling a storm in disproportion to the size of the stream.

"That," says Varik, "was a pleasant surprise."

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What if a Worst-Case Coronal Mass Ejection CME Hit Earth - New Study


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YOU ROCK, SIMPLE27! THANKS!!


The Oracle's Cookie

Jupiter at Solar Conjunction - Sun is Directly in Between Earth and the Gas Giant Planet


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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Feb. 1-2 when a solar wind stream hits Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. Solar wind speeds could jump to 600+ km/s when the stream arrives, sparking bright Arctic auroras.

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...dont worry....I'LL FART!...UH.

Incoming

SOLAR WIND SPARKS ALASKA AURORAS: A stream of solar wind is blowing around Earth faster than 500 km/s. First contact with the gaseous material late on Feb. 1st sparked bright red and green auroras over Alaska. Sacha Layos photographed the display outside Fairbanks:

https://imgur.com/mInppqR

"It was a truly delightful night," says Layos. "Reds and ribbons filled the sky overhead while I huddled under my parka to avoid a biting wind chill. 35mph gusts at -15F = no thank you! :)"

In addition to making auroras, this solar wind stream is gently rattling Earth's magnetic field. Magnetogram data collected by Stuart Green in Preston UK shows the ongoing activity:

https://imgur.com/lcfjmrw

"The expected solar wind has arrived, twitching magnetometer needles around the globe, including my own here in the UK," says Green. "It never ceases to be a thrill when the effects of space weather are detected in my own back yard."

Deconstructing Green's plot: A tremor early on Feb. 1st heralded the solar wind's arrival. It was caused by dense interplanetary plasma scooped up and pushed toward Earth by the solar wind stream--much like a snowplow pushing snow down a winter street. The stream itself punched through late Feb 1/early Feb. 2. Solar wind velocities shot up from 300 km/s to 500 km/s, and Earth's magnetic field has been disturbed ever since.

Arctic sky watchers should remain alert for auroras as the solar wind continues to blow on Feb. 2nd and 3rd.

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Last Edited by joinca on 02/02/2021 09:29 PM

Solar Storm and BIG QUAKES go hand-in-hand. Today's
is no exception. Just happened around 11:30 P.M. EST
on 2-02-2021

7.0 Pt. quake on Easter Island--no word on TSUNAMI RISK
yet.

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Wow!


The Oracle's Cookie

A Large “Solar Prominence” Erupting from the Surface of the Sun


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MIND-BENDING AURORAS: Usually, when aurora tour guide Marianne Bergli sees mind-bending auroras over Tromsø, Norway, she is surrounded by clients. Last night, she was all alone. "The lights were incredible--just fantastic," she says. "And I enjoyed the display all by myself."

https://imgur.com/V6JMv4t

This is what happens when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hits Earth during a global pandemic: Lots of auroras, few tourists. Despite the lack of witnesses, though, the outburst really happened. "Every color in the heavens cycled through the sky," she says. "It. Was. Amazing."

In the wake of the CIR, solar wind is now blowing around Earth at speeds near 600 km/s. If these conditions persist, more Arctic mind-benders are possible on Feb. 3rd. Says Bergli, "you are welcome to join us."

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comet impact around end april -may.

CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: What made the auroras of Feb. 2nd so good? It was a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, creating density gradients and shock waves that can rock Earth's magnetic field. A CIR hit Earth on Feb. 2nd and ... see below above.

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Ears have been ringing on an off last 48 hrs. The last hour or so has been very intense.

SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: Earth is about to cross a fold in the heliospheric current sheet--a vast wavy structure in interplanetary space separating regions of opposite magnetic polarity. The crossing, called a "solar sector boundary crossing," is expected late on Feb. 6th and could trigger geomagnetic activity around Earth's poles.

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CRACKS IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: Minor cracks are opening in Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 6th as the interplanetary magnetic field near our planet tips south. A solar wind stream due to arrive on Feb. 7th could flow through the gaps, igniting polar auroras.

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A "FLUX ROPE CME" AND JUPITER: On Feb. 4th, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) watched a flux rope CME sail into space almost directly in front of Jupiter.

https://imgur.com/wW12hjG

It's called a "flux rope CME" because this CME is literally a rope--a helical twist of magnetic fields hundreds of thousands of kilometers long. When flux ropes are viewed from the side, they look like a coiled lasso. This lariat did not snare anything, though. The CME is going to miss both Earth and Jupiter.

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THE SOLAR WIND IS HERE: A high-speed stream of solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 7th, sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms and auroras around both poles--north and south. The gaseous material is flowing faster than 500 km/s from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere.

"Tonight, after months of relative inactivity the Aurora Australis burst into life," reports Ian Griffin, who sends this picture froom Smails Beach, Otago Peninsula, New Zealand:

https://imgur.com/tuQmqT7

"For a few brief minutes, the aurora displayed beams and fast moving activity which were a delight!" he says.

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Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3820
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 1453 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3819
Valid From: 2021 Feb 06 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Feb 07 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3819
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0747 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3818
Valid From: 2021 Feb 06 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Feb 07 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1308
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0553 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Feb 07 0543 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

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Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1575
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0325 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2021 Feb 07 0230 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Feb 07 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1574
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0324 UTC

CANCEL WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Cancel Serial Number: 1573
Original Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0228 UTC

Comment: Will resend with correct dates

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1573
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0228 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2021 Feb 07 0230 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Feb 07 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1307
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0243 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Feb 07 0238 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1307
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0243 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Feb 07 0238 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1307
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0243 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Feb 06 0238 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1573
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 07 0228 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2021 Feb 06 0230 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Feb 06 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUNSPOT GENESIS: A new sunspot is emerging in the sun's southern hemisphere. So far it is small and quiet, posing no threat for strong flares.

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https://imgur.com/Ju68Tjr

AN AREA OF INTEREST ON THE SUN: A small sunspot emerging near the sun's southeastern limb may be more interesting than it looks. This image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows why:

https://imgur.com/CJmWWU4

The sunspot is breaking through the sun's surface right next to a dark magnetic filament. Rapid evolution of the sunspot could de-stabilize the region, causing the filament to erupt. Amateur astronomers with safely-filtered telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

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Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3821
Issue Time: 2021 Feb 08 2333 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Feb 08 2331 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Feb 09 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.