SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

https://imgur.com/03yCio2

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Good morning, Simple!

I'm still very rusty in my CME prediction skills but I'm still going to take a stab at it.

CACTus detection software calculated an avg. velocity of 516 km/s. I think this is way too low. I believe there is a software bias which underestimates speeds when the source is near the 0 meridian and overestimates the limb events. My hunch is about 900-960 km/s. Not exactly a 'kill shot', but a respectable CME for a change.

The CME appears on the STEREO for 2 images about 35 mins. after the flare peak. This seems very fast to me. I remember waiting over a hour to see CMEs appear beyond the occulting disk in the past.

STEREO A first appearance:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

After 2 hours:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

UH....I THINK U PEOPLE MIGHT ACTUALLY 'SCORE' THIS THYME..UH..

If we have a bigger eruption in the next 24 hrs. things could get really interesting. When CMEs pile up we have the recipe for severe geomagnetic storms. Don't forget that AR2882 is still Earth-facing; and due to its low latitude and hefty size, the possibility of stronger events is in the cards.

Impressive for sure!

In this SDO movie of the M1 flare I notice that the big central spot wasn't even involved in the flare!

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

The flaring came from the small delta spots of opposing polarities above the main spot. If the Gentle Giant ever awakens we could see X-flares. He'll be with us for another week so stay alert.

Latest HMI Magnetogram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Have no fear, the US Dept. of Commerce is on the case!

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Oct 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2882 (N17E06,
Dho/beta-gamma) produced an M1/2b flare at 09/0653 UTC. Associated with
the event was a full-halo CME signature which was first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09/0712 UTC. A Type II radio sweep
(608 km/s), Type IV radio sweep, and Tenflare (430 sfu) were also
observed with the event. The CME is assumed to be Earth-directed is
currently being analyzed and modeled to estimate onset timing at Earth.
The regions area remained stable and only subtle development was
observed in the penumbra north of its largest spot.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 09-11 Oct due to the flare potential
from Region 2882.

Another spotless C-flare. I guess they're not that rare after all, lol.

C2 flare from plage region in the far SE quadrant......

GONG pic:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

SolarDemon movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

NOAA's Solar Summary was a cut'n'paste repeat of their earlier post--with one additional item...CME arrival expected 'midday 10/11'.

Geospace .24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet, with isolated
periods of unsettled possible from potential coronal hole influence,
on 10 Oct. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 11 Oct due to the
arrival of the 09 CME. Active levels to G1 (Minor) storm levels are
likely on 12 Oct with lingering CME influence.

NOAA Enlil model:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

SWPC also failed to notice 2 more spotted regions. An emerging bi-polar sunspot in the NW and a tiny bi-polar region in the SW. Both spots were visible all day but have yet to produce any activity.

Latest Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Latest Magnetogram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Restless sunspot AR2882 erupted this morning, Oct. 9th (0640 UT), producing a strong M1.6-class solar flare and an Earth-directed CME. NASA's Solar Dynamics captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:
[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere. This, in turn, caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean: blackout map. Aviators, ham radio operators, and ships at sea may have noticed strange propagation effects at frequencies below 25 MHz.

New images from SOHO confirm that the explosion hurled a CME almost directly toward Earth. This is called a "halo CME" because it appears to completely surround the sun:Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere. This, in turn, caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean: blackout map. Aviators, ham radio operators, and ships at sea may have noticed strange propagation effects at frequencies below 25 MHz.
The storm cloud will probably reach Earth late on Oct. 11th or Oct. 12th, potentially sparking G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms. A better estimate of the CME's arrival time may emerge from NOAA computer modeling, underway now. Stay tuned for updates. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Related threads:

About this flare:
Thread: M1.6 Solar Flare. CME Heading to Earth. High Magnitude Earthquake Warning for La Palma, Spain 10.11.2021-10.17.2021
About this flare / issues:
Thread: News Nuclear/EMP Watch! Weather Woes, Solar Storms, Chernobyl meltdown? Radiation? Summer sizzle? 5 SIREN ALERT (Page 49)
Flares / effects in general:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

C2.3 flare

LDE

https://imgur.com/qUMWxyG

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Simple27 on 10/10/2021 08:35 PM

The C2 originated just beyond the NW limb and apparently caused a CME, too.

Ejecta from the flare can be seen here:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Unlikely this CME would have an Earth-directed component.

AR2882 has lost its Gamma classification and my 2 little regions were numbered finally (Yay!).

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 284 Issued at 0030Z on 11 Oct 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 10 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2882 N18W14 157 0260 Dho 07 04 Beta
2883 N27W60 203 0030 Bxo 02 02 Beta
2884 S20W27 170 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta

NOAA?SWPC Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2882 (N18W14, Dho/beta) was
relatively quiet throughout the period. Penumbral decay was observed in
the spots north of its largest spot. New Regions 2883 (N27W60, Bxo/beta)
and 2884 (S20W27, Bxo/beta) were numbered and were inactive. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 11-13 Oct due to the flare potential
from Region 2882.

UH.........HELLO. NEW THREAD SAYS SOLAR FLARE GONNA HIT LA PALMA AT 5AM EST?!....


COULD ONE OF YOU LOVELY SOLAR-TARDZ CONFIRM OR DENY THIS...??!

It is not going to "hit La Palma", however we do have an incoming CME tomorrow.

...UH...SO....I CAN STILL GO TO DENNY'S?..

For now

CME is running a little late.

I’m at work today so I’ll check it out when I get home.

The Bz will determine whether we have a minor or major storm.

I also noticed that ACE proton spike. It was way too early for the CME and perfectly correlates to the C2 CME lift-off. The west limb is often very connected to Earth magnetically.

Still no sign of a CME from the M1 flare.

ACE data plots:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM, SLIGHTLY DELAYED: A CME expected to hit Earth on Oct. 11th is running late. As a result, NOAA forecasters have shifted their prediction of a possible G2-class geomagnetic storm from Oct. 11th to Oct. 12th. G2-class storms are moderately strong, and can produce naked-eye auroras in northern-tier US states.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

SUDDEN IMPULSE DETECTED @ACE & DSCVR-

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Only 14 hours late. Not bad for NOAA, lol.

Bz SOUTH -16.... could be a strong storm.

SW Velocity jumps to near 500 Km/s.

Not much density thus far.....

DSCVR SW Data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 184
Issue Time: 2021 Oct 12 0155 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 12 0215 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 12 0315 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2021 Oct 12 0147 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2021 Oct 12 0200 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Oct 12 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.