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Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes

 
Q
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09/15/2005 08:51 PM
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Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Most GLP folks had already speculated on this so here are some of the facts.
=========================

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]


´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
By Helen Briggs
BBC News science reporter

Image: Nasa/JPL
Warm waters "fuel" the biggest storms
Records for the past 35 years show that hurricanes have got stronger in recent times, according to a global study.

This fits with mounting evidence which suggests the biggest storms around the world - hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones - are intensifying.

Some US scientists say that greenhouse warming may be driving the most severe events, such as Katrina, although more research is needed to be sure.

Their assessment of hurricane activity is published in the journal Science.

The idea that global warming might have an impact makes sense in theory, at least, since tropical storms need warm ocean water to build up strength.

But most scientists believe there is currently insufficient evidence to make such a claim, partly because of the lack of reliable long-term data.

Satellite data

Now, scientists at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Georgia, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, have analysed global tropical cyclone statistics since satellite records began.


I think probably the sea surface temperature increase is a manifestation of global warming
Dr Peter Webster
They found that there has been a sharp rise in the number of category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones - the most intense hurricanes that cause most of the damage on landfall - over this time period.

Between 1975 and 1989, there were 171 severe hurricanes but the number rose to 269 between 1990 and 2004.

The author of the study, Dr Peter Webster, told the BBC News website: "What I think we can say is that the increase in intensity is probably accounted for by the increase in sea surface temperature and I think probably the sea surface temperature increase is a manifestation of global warming."

Natural variation

The debate is likely to continue, however, as some scientists argue that the present hurricane surge is part of a 60 to 70-year cycle linked to natural effects.

They believe climate change due to human activity will not significantly affect hurricanes and that damage caused by increased development along coastlines is a bigger factor.

Julian Heming, hurricane expert at the Met Office in Exeter, UK, says that a longer term record is needed to establish a firm link between global warming and more powerful hurricanes.

He said: "I would say that this paper corroborates the widely held view in the scientific community that whilst global warming may not be having any impact on the frequency of tropical cyclones or even the proportion which reach hurricane strength, it may have an impact on the small proportion of tropical cyclones which attain the highest strength (category 4 and 5)."
Anonymous Coward
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09/15/2005 09:22 PM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Brace for more Katrinas, say experts Tue Aug 30,10:55 AM ET



PARIS (AFP) - For all its numbing ferocity, Hurricane Katrina will not be a unique event, say scientists, who say that global warming appears to be pumping up the power of big Atlantic storms.

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2005 is on track to be the worst-ever year for hurricanes, according to experts measuring ocean temperatures and trade winds -- the two big factors that breed these storms in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic.

Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based consortium of experts, predicted that the region would see 22 tropical storms during the six-month June-November season, the most ever recorded and more than twice the average annual tally since records began in 1851.

Seven of these storms would strike the United States, of which three would be hurricanes, it said.

Already, 2004 and 2003 were exceptional years: they marked the highest two-year totals ever recorded for overall hurricane activity in the North Atlantic.

This increase has also coincided with a big rise in Earth´s surface temperature in recent years, driven by greenhouse gases that cause the Sun´s heat to be stored in the sea, land and air rather than radiate back out to space.

But experts are cautious, also noting that hurricane numbers seem to undergo swings, over decades.

About 90 tropical storms -- a term that includes hurricanes and their Asian counterparts, typhoons -- occur each year.

The global total seems to be stable, although regional tallies vary a lot, and in particular seem to be influenced by the El Nino weather pattern in the Western Pacific.

"(Atlantic) cyclones have been increasing in numbers since 1995, but one can´t say with certainty that there is a link to global warming," says Patrick Galois with the French weather service Meteo-France.

"There have been other high-frequency periods for storms, such as in the 1950s and 60s, and it could be that what we are seeing now is simply part of a cycle, with highs and lows."

On the other hand, more and more scientists estimate that global warming, while not necessarily making hurricanes more frequent or likelier to make landfall, is making them more vicious.

Hurricanes derive from clusters of thunderstorms over tropical waters that are warmer than 27.2 C (81 C).

A key factor in ferocity is the temperature differential between the sea surface and the air above the storm. The warmer the sea, the bigger the differential and the bigger the potential to "pump up" the storm.

Just a tiny increase in surface temperature can have an extraordinary effect, says researcher Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

In a study published in Nature in July, Emanuel found that the destructive power of North Atlantic storms had doubled over the past 30 years, during which the sea-surface temperature rose by only 0.5 C (0.9 F).

Emanuel´s yardstick is storm duration and windpower: hurricanes lasted longer and packed higher windspeeds than before.

Another factor in destructiveness is flooding. Kevin Trenberth of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research suggests that hurricanes are dumping more rainfall as warmer seas suck more moisture into the air, swelling the stormclouds.

The indirect evidence for this is that water vapour over oceans worldwide has increased by about two percent since 1988. But data is sketchy for precipitation dropped by recent hurricanes.

"The intensity of and rainfalls from hurricanes are probably increasing, even if this increase cannot yet be proven with a formal statistical test," Trenberth wrote in the US journal Science in June. He said computer models "suggest a shift" toward the extreme in in hurricane intensities.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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09/16/2005 01:40 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Thanks 1250, great info
neti
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09/16/2005 08:51 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
I find this particularly interesting.


"The indirect evidence for this is that water vapour over oceans worldwide has increased by about two percent since 1988."


The evaporation of water produces a cooling effect in the atmosphere, but not in the water, apparently.
It says in ´UNDERSTANDING LATENT HEAT´:

"When water undergoes a phase change (a change from solid, liquid or gas to another phase) the temperature of the H20 stays at the same temperature. Why? Energy is being used to either weaken the hydrogen bonds between H20 molecules or energy is being taken away from the H20 which tightens the hydrogen bonds."

[link to www.theweatherprediction.com]

I would have thought that the increased evaporation might have masked the degree of ocean warming, but apparently not, for it says in the reference that the temperature of the water remains unchanged with evaporation, but that it´s the surrounding air which surrenders its heat to the water molecules.

So it is then that the air temperature, which reflects global warming, is being masked by the increased water vapor in the air.


Which feeds into this link.

"On one hand, analyses of thermometer measurements of near-surface global (land and sea) air temperatures suggest the planet has been warming in recent decades. But satellite measurements of the planet´s lower atmospheric temperature show no warming from 1979 to 1998•."

The Schumann Resonances and Human Psychobiology
[link to www.nexusmagazine.com]

•The lower atmosphere unchanged (or cooling) trend noticed between 1979 to 1998, modified by a correction factor:

"the older radiosonde instruments used in the 1970´s were not as well shielded from sunlight as more recent models. What this means as that older radiosondes showed warmer temperature readings during the day because they were warmed by sunlight.

Nowadays, radiosondes are better insulated against the effects of sunlight, but if analyzed together with the old data—which showed temperatures that were actually warmer than they really were—the overall effect looked like the troposphere was cooling.

The discrepancy between surface and atmospheric measurements has been used by for years by skeptics who dispute claims of global warming.

´Now we´re learning that the disconnect is more apparent than real,´.."

Key claim against global warming evaporates, Satellite and weather balloon data based on faulty analyses, studies find
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

scratching Is the air temperature being buffered by the increased water vapor in the air over oceans, and is global warming actually MORE SEVERE than what we think?
neti
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09/16/2005 08:54 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
scratching Is the air temperature increases being buffered by the increased water vapor in the air over oceans, and is global warming actually MORE SEVERE than what we think?
Q (OP)
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09/16/2005 09:08 PM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
good thinking neti.

I think another factor throwing out current ocean temperature numbers not being accounted for and hence askew readings are resulting.

Submerged volcanoes have increased in a number of areas, which in turn are cranking up the heat of the water more so than normal.

If the heat of the water is crancked up a bit then I guess the point of evaporation is reached faster than it normaly would be, which in turn will no doubt increase the speed of the cycle further!

Now as this happens TD´s are more likely to form in areas we are not used to seeing and the instensity of these storms in other areas also intensifies.

The hurricanes are brought about by nature to cool the water by turning and agitating the water with enormous force and size, so to cover as larger area and penetrate as deep as needed to cool the water back down.

I bet the temps in the gulf droped substantialy after the hurricane.

Now we have a hurricane traveeling up the east coast to cool down the downstream currents.

There are many more factors to the cycle equation of nature.

she always wants BALANCE.

cheers
neti
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09/16/2005 09:29 PM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
You´d have to wonder then, with the underseas volcanos and the ocean´s warming trend, what´s going on in the mantle, and whether our core - the core of the Earth - is a nuclear reactor.

Global warming might be having more of an impact upon the planet than just the greenhouse effect of air pollution.
neti
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09/17/2005 03:03 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Put together-

"water vapour over oceans worldwide has increased by about two percent since 1988."

(second article above)

With,

"the Earth is now out of energy balance, with 0.85 ± 0.15 W/m^2 more solar energy coming in than terrestrial heat radiation going out to space"

Global Temperature Trends: 2004 Summation
[link to data.giss.nasa.gov]


And you have a POSITIVE FEEDBACK loop.

The increased water vapor from evaporation adds to the particulate matter in the atmosphere, which in turn adds to the greenhouse effect.

With a warmer atmosphere, more water gets evaporated incorporating heat from the atmosphere in the water vapor. The warmer atmosphere reduces surface radiation from the planet, which inturn feeds back into increasing the temperature of the mantle and the core. More underwater volcanos go off raising the temperature of the ocean (there are heaps of articles on increased ocean temps and its affects on deep ocean circulations, and decreases in plankton and krill populations which feed the food chain).

Southern Ocean and Antarctic Circumpolar Current
[link to www.marine.csiro.au]
(with colored diagram)

Then, as Q. said, "the point of evaporation is reached faster than it normaly would be, which in turn will no doubt increase the speed of the cycle further!"

Q. was referring to tropical depressions (TD) which have increased in severity over the past thirty years, but it also refers to the overall trend of global warming.

[Sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic has increased by 0.5°C in the past 30 years: see 2nd article, above]

Positive feedback is inimical to the health of an organism.

NEGATIVE FEEDBACK is required for life, because it stops runaway processes.


Strangely, global warmning, a POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP, is a mirror of national governments´ GNP/GDP imperative, which is one of CONTINUAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, despite environmental factors and what Nature is telling us to the contrary.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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09/17/2005 05:38 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Hey neti, thanks for the info.

You never cease to amaze me with your excellent abilities of dicsernment and superior language and vocal skills over me.

I am terrible at spelling etc...

Reading on here at Earth Mothers feedbacks.

The volcanoes may also becoming more active to re-supply the plankton which in turn will kick start the food chain again.

These little planktons are fundamental to the entire ocean life system.

We have to meet one day neti, your a good soul brother or sister.
Norseman

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09/17/2005 05:42 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
The tiniest microbe has everything to do with our balance. Mother Nature is not amused. Like a dog scratching fleas is more a measure of understanding for the vast majority of dumbasses on this planet. Don´t get me started.
neti
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09/17/2005 05:48 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Q.,

I have a text file of notes, mainly from GLP pages, which I´ve collected over a couple of years. Most of this info has been up before..

I respect you too, Q., because you´re very cluey....


You wrote:

This came to me lastnight.

Perhaps a message to be heard in it.


You are for sure in the know of what needs to be done.

When the garden is happy other worlds will open to us.

I was thinking about how we could use technology to tap into our Earth for feedback on her health but then for some reason a message came to me as I was looking into the South feeling a great gust on my face.

The message said to drop most of our known technology for this and instead feel what the garden needs. To be truly in touch with her is what she wants, and by doing this will allow our spirits to grow strong and pure again.

together we can be one so to speak.

I look forward to these changes as it will bring abut a new hope for all, a new sense of purpose and meaning back into our lifes. Something to strive towards, as each step towards the goal is fullfilled so to will our synergy with all grow.

Sounds like a wounderfull relationship to develop, based on trust, peace, compassion, unconditional love and respect, all wraped up around honor.

(August 27th)


Love,
neti.
neti
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09/17/2005 05:55 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Keep going, Norseman.. Express yourself! Please.


All I know is: WE´VE GOT TO LIVE WITH LESS. Individually that´s got to be a choice.

Cheers,
neti.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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09/17/2005 06:09 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
have to agree Neti, just a few items are needed to be truley comfortable with our surroundings.

A computer is a must :)

I dumped using a car over a year ago, in fact in the last 5 years I have used a car maybe 20 times, its harder at first, yes.

But it is easy to grow used to not relying on one.

Also I may of watched TV 10 times in the last 6-7 years.

I very rarely ever have to use paper, constantly re-programming my habbits to never scribble stuff down on paper etc.. Its all electronic.

In 5 years I have never developed a film as everything is now digital.

Any left over food in our house goes back to nature and not in the rubbish bin.

I have perhaps purchased take away food 5 times in as many years.

I have only drunk a few cans/bottles of softdrink in my life as 95% of my liquid intake is fresh boiled water.

A shower only lasts 3 minutes for me to save water.

Washing the clothes is only once every 2 weeks, save on chemicals and water.

The garden gets some water only in the last hours of the evenning, to prevent evaporation and get the most out of what precious water we have left.


All these small things add up.

If we all did this, there would be a huge shift.
neti
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09/17/2005 06:25 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
You´ve planned it out well, Q..

And yes, "All these small things add up."


I do my two bits, but don´t seem to be nearly as organized as you are... I wash clothes by hand and walk to the shops, but we do have a car for our weekly grocery shopping.

It would be nice to reduce GDP though, and then help one another through a recession. We have to stop feeding the system of perpetual economic growth, and cause the elite to come down a peg or two. imo.
Q.  (OP)

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09/17/2005 07:05 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Yep, we need to pull our heads in a lot;

chemicals
toxins
pollutants
biohazards
virus strains getting stronger
Clones
GM food etc...

its all bad for the Earth.

Our urban biohazard swamps and de-forrestation is beyond a joke now.
neti
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09/17/2005 07:49 AM
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Yes, we do. headbang I´ll be back after some sleep. Cheerio for now, Q., and thank you.
Q.  (OP)

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09/17/2005 07:51 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
And goodnight to you my friend.

Dream of a clean happy earth for us all will you :)

flower
neti
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09/17/2005 08:22 AM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Yes, I will. And love to you, Q.
Anonymous Coward
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09/17/2005 09:59 PM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
bump
neti
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09/17/2005 10:29 PM
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Re: Hurricanes /Typhoon/Cyclones have becme stronger - ´Warming link´ to big hurricanes
Thanks for bumping it, AC 1498. This is a crucial thread.





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