HURRICANE IRMA THREAD: BREAKING: Irma finally downgraded to a Tropical Depression. 11 Deaths in US!!!p.713

Went from a Tropical storm to a 3 in a matter of hours. Wow.

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

some nice links here:

Thread: Joe Bastardi Hurricane Irma, Sept. 9 updates page 10

Harvey did something close to the same thing. It went from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 4 in less than 60 hours. Pretty wild.

Irma is a monster, but we have a few GLP meteorologists saying it's nothing to even watch for

Maybe we'll see a 200 mph storm. I wonder what the survival rate would be?

just like Harvey did. Hmmm?

000
WTNT41 KNHC 312032
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall
convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to
rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB
support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt
increase from yesterday at this time.

Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement
cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the
eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for
this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment
for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles
and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast
intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend,
Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to
be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be
strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC
prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line
with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional
hurricane models at that time.

Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt.
There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the
hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the
next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At
long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the
strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south
differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[link to www.weathernerds.org]

Ryan Maue‏Verified account
@RyanMaue

Irma is maximizing its potential over marginal ocean temperatures - evidence that other factors matter as well for major hurricanes.

my girl ,vacancy now ,sud us and i ( advertissement)
script for you said,
check this game,gaz or othe and change aéroport if nécesseray
or other vigil this time,
thanks for me and my girl(my girld it.s a survivant 2004.
a big problem for...a mother,don.t pass this a new)
luis,xxx.

Thread: Is Hurricane Harvey being used by TPTB to sway Trump?

Thread: H.I.J.K = Hijack? (Harvey - Irma - Jose - Katia) - 4 Storms Take Out The USA?

But the first afected will be Puerto Rico...

Its freaking exploding

It's impressive, and exploding in not so favorable factors!

I'll worry next week if it approaches. WAY too far out there to be concerned today. Enjoy your Labor Day weekend 1st.

September 11th...

Thread: Hurricane,Cyclone ,Typhoon watch thread I disagree .I think these meteorologists use GFS model as base for forecast.And I thought GFS is the best one .They are predicting turn to NE then north out of sea.With huge ridge of higher pressure East of it.There is no way this hurricane is gonna travel north with ridge blocking it.Also I doubt in GFS forecast for pressure of 897 mb in peak.Only five atlantic hurricanes reached pressure under 900 mb.I think Euro is more accurate in this matter

and luis said this,check and understand for this,is not a
freak party a ...
it.s a real time,luis a very any time ,i am a connenxt
,look and it.s a very gard for a many people,undestand
this (time)and pray for mondial.
many pray.xxxxxxx.

Both this storm and Harvey seem to defy physics in the way they behave. Seriously, it's as if they are under influence from some divine being, and sent towards to U.S. as some form of punishment. Incredible...

Cooler water temps and some dry air

With this kind of monster storm authorities will need days to prepare, hopefully the models will be consistent by the middle of next week

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx
And the 12z EPS intensity circles. Almost all show a storm sub 964mb off the SE coast. #Irma More than 60% sub 950
8:49 PM - Aug 31, 2017

I'm siding with the Euro currently as well. It did a good job with Harvey and the current models are mirroring some of hurricane history's most notorious paths.