TROPICAL STORM OLGA: Multiple tornado warning polygons in effect for Southwest Alabama!!!p3

We have a big cold front moving through south Texas tonight, with thunderstorms and heavy rain expected. Wonder if it may join up with this tropical system?

An area of low pressure currently located in the Bay of Campeche will move northward in the western Gulf of Mexico through late Friday before being absorbed by a cold front pushing across the South.
[link to weather.com (secure)]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located over the Bay of
Campeche. However, recent satellite data indicate that the
circulation is elongated and not well defined. This system
could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with
a cold front by late Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force
winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFD...

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Updated October 24, 2019 at 18:00 UTC

Invest 97L
Located at 20.9°N, 94.6°W
Minimum Pressure: 1007mb
Maximum Wind: 25kt

Other related info from the one buoy close-by:

NDBC
Location: 22.124N 93.941W
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2019 18:40:00 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (80°)
Water Temperature: 84.6 F

Tropical Storm Olga forming in the Gulf? Flash Flood Watches issued.
POSTED 3:31 PM, OCTOBER 24, 2019, BY SCOT PILIE'
[link to wgno.com (secure)]

The panhandle of Texas is like the whole of the Midwest. One day you've heat and tornadoes, the next it's cold and you've blizzard conditions. My area has a good chance of flooding rains later tonight.

They've been heavily chemtrailing for 2 days now here in Tampa Bay area. I am watching the murder clouds rolling NW. Earlier they were moving wnw.

Recon is scheduled to go out at 12:30 PM CDT. I wonder if this will get named before being absorbed by the cold front.

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 25, 2019:

Location: 24.7°N 94.8°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

It is now Tropical Depression 17 per the NHC website

000
WTNT42 KNHC 251432
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system in the
western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation.
In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to
the northeast of the low-level center. Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Seventeen. The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt, and it is possible based on last night's
scatterometer data that this is conservative.

A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states
should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in
forward speed during the next couple of days, with the center
crossing the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. The
track guidance is in good agreement, and the forecast track lies
close to the various consensus models.

A surface cold front associated with the baroclinic trough is
quickly approaching the center of the depression, and the tropical
cyclone is expected to merge with the front during the next 12 h.
Based on this, the cyclone is expected to become a gale-force
post-tropical low before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The
low should weaken after landfall, with dissipation expected just
after 48 h. There is a chance that the system could briefly become
a tropical storm this afternoon before it merges with the cold
front. However, even if this occurs it will make little difference
to the impacts on the northern Gulf coast.

Key messages:

1. Since depression is expected to merge with a cold front and
become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall
and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local
National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 25.6N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 28.2N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1200Z 32.6N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z 43.2N 85.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)]

and 'd for updates

Last Edited by NOLAangel on 10/25/2019 11:14 AM

Updated: Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate
that a tropical cyclone is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico,
and advisories will be initiated on this system later this morning.
The system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post-
tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force
winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of
Mexico today and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

It's raining now and going to rain all day today and tomorrow here in Little Rock.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
LA...SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST AL...

...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes and isolated damaging winds will be possible
through tonight across portions of the central Gulf Coast States.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Two rounds of potential severe are anticipated during the period.
The first round is ongoing within the warm conveyor region centered
across the MS/AL coast. With mid to upper 70s surface dew points
offshore and low 70s having reached the coast, slow northward
surface-based destabilization is anticipated across southeast MS and
southwest AL. A few supercells have been observed this morning,
mainly in the coastal waters. This activity should continue to shift
slowly north as a diffuse warm front advances. The greatest relative
tornado threat should exist across southwest AL and southeast MS
amid 25-30 kt 0-1 km shear prior to individual cells weakening with
northern extent in a cooler/more stable boundary layer north of the
front. The severe threat within this warm conveyor regime should
subside towards early evening.

A second round of tornado/wind potential may redevelop tonight as
cyclogenesis occurs in the northwest Gulf with the resultant low
tracking north-northeast into the Lower MS Valley. The primary
uncertainty will be the northward extent of surface-based
destabilization given the time of day along with extensive prior
convection. However, low-level wind profiles will be substantially
stronger compared to this afternoon yielding rather enlarged
low-level hodographs. Have expanded level 1 and 2 severe risk areas
to the west/north near the surface cyclone track to account for this
relatively more conditional threat.