TROPICAL STORM OLGA: Multiple tornado warning polygons in effect for Southwest Alabama!!!p3

Forecast for 97L

97L was headed to the north-northwest at about 10 mph on Thursday morning. By Friday, a trough of low pressure over the central U.S. will force 97L on a more north-northeasterly track, and will begin funneling moisture from the disturbance into Louisiana, eastern Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. This system will likely spread rain farther northeastward into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday evening into early Saturday, with a widespread region of 3 – 5” of rain likely. Another heavy dose of rain is expected across the region next week, which could push 7-day rainfall totals into the 5 – 7" range (see Figure 1).

As 97L approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday, wind shear will increase and dry air will invade the Gulf system from the north. By Friday night, the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will rise to a prohibitively high 30+ knots, so 97L has a short window of opportunity for development, and the disturbance has relatively weak support for development into a tropical cyclone from our top computer models. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day odds of development into a tropical cyclone of 30%. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Olga.
[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]