Supply Chain disruptions and the new construction housing market.... Get ready for the big short 2.0 this spring

New construction is going to come to a screeching halt with supplies being delayed and cancelled.

Materials to build the inside of your new home come from China.

If you're thinking of selling an existing home, get is listed NOW. Before spring.

You didn't think they were gonna let you keep that home equity now did ya?

Central heat and air along with appliances are gone.

Negative interest rates won't save the market.

If homes literally cannot be built, supply drops. Existing home values increase.

Especially with the Fed pumping record free money into the markets.

Screws, bolts, plastics, roofing, tyvek, engineered wood, tile, carpet, cabinets, ....

You get it... It's over.

For a short time, this spring only, then the entire housing market collapses, including existing homes. Probably down 50%

You all know I'm right.

I do agree, when the dominos start falling, everything will deflate.

However, predicting a calamity that doesn't arrive on time can be costly.

Georgia-Pacific, Huber, Owens-Corning, Moose River Mill, USG, Certainteed, etc., etc. NO WAY with so many DOMESTIC building products available we experience some 'construction armageddon.'

Many of their "supplies" are made in China.

The cost to build a new house is going to skyrocket.


Stop being in denial, the new construction business is going to collapse and negative rates won't save the housing market.

As someone else already pointed out, wouldn't a drop in supply of new-construction homes result in an INCREASE in the values of existing-construction homes?

no tree grows to the sky

Yes, for a short time, like this spring and then all bets are off as credit fries up, lending tightens. If you are planning on selling, you need to do it NOW. After this spring, when sheople start to realize what's going on in the stock market, the collapse starts. After this summer prices are going to drop for existing homes and new construction is done until supply chain issues are resolved.

It's coming. You know it and I know it.

Negative rates won't fix this.

*Dries up*

I built my home in 2004. The cost of a sheet of 3/4 Advantech sub-flooring was $35/sheet. In fact, building products in general were at an all-time high. I didn't much care for that, but the house got built nonetheless. The housing market most certainly did not collapse then, nor will it now. There's a nationwide shortage of housing, and our workforce is growing. Our economy is market driven. From that will arise whatever solutions are necessary to combat the complications we face. In fact, WWII forced the entire nation to exist on rationed materials. Not only did we survive, WE WON A DAMNED WAR TOO. End of discussion.

I work building retail stores. A lot of the in store fixtures are manufactured in China. It will be interesting to see how this well affect our supply chain. The displays
Might be assembled or put together here but it all comes from China.

It's going to be bad. Very bad.

Anyone who disputes this is a sheep.

Just look at the repos going into the market every night.

We are so over due for a collapse.


I don't care much what others think it do, as I've got my shit together and I'm not looking to buy or sell.

But anyone who is considering selling, needs to do do now.

Americans have more credit card debt than ever in history, that alone is going to destroy what's left of the middle class.

Good luck. Y'all gonna need it.

I'll bet your house is a piece of crap. Cheap.

2004 was the height of the market, builders were slapping houses together cheaply.

Forget the crash in 2008 that was nothing.

You overpaid in 2004 and get ready for a 50% drop in value this year.

You know I'm right so don't even bother replying.

I'm a custom home builder, and my house is beautiful. Thank you for asking. Perhaps when you get out of your parents basement, work hard, develop a viable skill, contribute to the economy, and pass a basic course in economics, your outlook will change a bit.

Purchased all the critical stuff made in China weeks ago. Solar panels, charge controllers, and batteries.

Sure was nice while the party lasted.

Yup.

In case you forgot, this is glp, so we know you're lying and at best you over paid for your shitty cookie cutter double wide.

The crash is going to wipe out a lot of home equity.

Bank on it.

Every supply chain has redundancy and resilience. BS thread.