Excess Deaths Latest England/Wales UNADJUSTED RAW Government Death Data LATEST: 17% excess

Government Stats ***Updated Weekly (ish)***!

My aim here is to record the excess deaths for England & Wales.
The excess is mainly NOT due to COVID!

I have data going back to the start of 2022 in this table:
[link to ibb.co (secure)] (last updated for week 34, ending 26-Aug-2022)

...and I will update it here in the OP when I can, hopefully every Tuesday when the ONS comes out with new numbers.

So here goes:



[link to ibb.co (secure)]
Excess Deaths, 2024 up to week 15 (12-Apr-2024):
======================================
Reminder: the figures here are NOT ADJUSTED.
I use a straight average from 2015-2019 for each week of the year, and calculate the 2024 deaths for that same week, for comparison.

Week 15 summary:
-> Week 15: Overall excess 17% some likely due to Easter backlog.
-> 1,813 excess deaths largely made up of over 75's (1,420 / 1,813)

Heatmap up to Week 15:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Overall:
Week ending 05-Apr-2024: +17% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 05-Apr-2024: (Holiday week) -6% NO EXCESS compared to figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 29-Mar-2024: (Holiday week) -7% NO EXCESS compared to figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 22-Mar-2024: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 15-Mar-2024: +1% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 08-Mar-2024: +1% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 01-Mar-2024: +3% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 23-Feb-2024: +2% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 16-Feb-2024: +2% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 09-Feb-2024: +5% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 02-Feb-2024: +4% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 26-Jan-2024: 0% NO excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 19-Jan-2024: -3% NO excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 12-Jan-2024: -1% NO excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 05-Jan-2024: -2% NO excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.


Excess Deaths, 2024 up to week 14 (05-Apr-2024):
======================================
Reminder: the figures here are NOT ADJUSTED.
I use a straight average from 2015-2019 for each week of the year, and calculate the 2024 deaths for that same week, for comparison.

Reminder: Easter Good Friday Bank & Easter Monday Holidays in the UK were at the end of Week13/ Start of Weeek14, i.e. 29 Mar/1Apr, so those weeks have lower recorded deaths.
This happens because Easter isn't in the same week each year, and so the 5-year average by week can't cope.

Week 14 summary:
-> Week 14: A calm 'holiday' week. Expected 15%-20% (1/5th-1/7th) reduction in figures due to day off.

Heatmap up to Week 14:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]





Excess Deaths, 2024 up to week 13 (29-Mar-2024):
======================================
Reminder: the figures here are NOT ADJUSTED.
Reminder: Easter Good Friday Bank Holiday in the UK was at the end of Week13, i.e. 29 Mar. so that week ahs predictacly lower recorded deaths.
I use a straight average from 2015-2019 for each week of the year, and calculate the 2024 deaths for that same week, for comparison.

Week 11-13 summary:
-> Week 11: A 55% excess in 1-14y/o. This is a 2 Standard Deviation excess. Should be uncommon.
-> Week 12: Overall 6% excess, with an 18% excess in 15-44y/o. This is a 1.5 Standard Deviation event.
-> Week 13: A relatively calm 'holiday' week. Only babies with statistically significant (13%) excess.

Heatmap up to Week 13:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Overall:
-> Headline number is again governed by 85+yo's and they simply don't seem to be dying as much just now.





Excess Deaths, 2024 up to week 10 (08-Mar-2024):
======================================
Reminder: the figures here are NOT ADJUSTED.
I use a straight average from 2015-2019 for each week of the year, and calculate the 2024 deaths for that same week, for comparison.

Week 10 summary:
-> A relatively calm week. No age-groups with statistically significant excess.

Heatmap Week 10:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Overall:
-> Headline number is again governed by 85+yo's and they simply don't seem to be dying as much just now.




Excess Deaths, 2024 up to week 9 (01-Mar-2024):
======================================
Reminder: the figures here are NOT ADJUSTED.
I use a straight average from 2015-2019 for each week of the year, and calculate the 2024 deaths for that same week, for comparison.

Week 9 low-lights:
-> 54% excess death in <1yo age-group.
-> This^ is a >3.5 Standard Deviation event. Should not happen without a defined cause any more than 1-in-1000 weeks.
-> 28% excess death in 15-44yo age-group. This is a >2 S.D. event.

Heatmap Week 9:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
-> The 54% excess in <1yo (week 9) shows up bright yellow, a 3.5+ S.D. event.
-> The 100% excess in 1-14yo (week 5) shows up bright yellow, too.
-> These things should happen less than one in one thousand weeks, by chance.
-> This is not a chance event.

Overall:
-> As expected, the headline number is governed by 85+yo's and they simply don't seem to be dying as much just now.
-> This^ covers up the details about younger people dying in excess.



ONS Fudging the figures
======================
So, as well as changing their 'model' for excess deaths to automagically erase any signal by baking in any excess into the next estimate, the ONS simultaneously changed the format of the excel spreadsheet on Registered Deaths.

Bear With me.
What used to have ONE row per week, breaking down the registered deaths for all ages..
TABLE NOW HAS 815 ROWS added every week!
A row for each Sex, Age, and place of death.
-> Meaning that what used to be a copy-paste of a single row of 'death info', by age, now has to select data from within a quagmire!
-> I have developed some filters, macros to gather what I need to relate it to the last few years' data.
-> For example, to get the deaths for just one week, ending 16th Feb., you need rows 7,43,79,115,151,187,223,259,295,331,367,403,439,475,511,547,5​83,619,655,691,727
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]


Right, whining over. Let's get to it.
Excess Deaths, 2024 up to week 7:
========================
Reminder: the figures here are NOT ADJUSTED.
I use a straight average from 2015-2019 for each week of the year, and calculate the 2024 deaths for that same week, for comparison.

-> As expected, the headline number covers up the details about younger people dying in excess - like 30% or more, in some weeks.
-> In February, there was a week where 1-14yo's had a 100% excess death rate! Double.
-> Even considering the normally low numbers, and usual volatility that entails, my package picks this out as a >3.5 Standard Deviation excess over the expected (for that age-group and week).
-> Was there any child massacre or school-bus disaster that I missed in the week ending 02-Feb-2024?
-> 3.5 SD should happen less than a one-in-1-thousand weeks!


Heat-map tables (shows excess in young, covered up by 'headline number'):
-------------------------------------------------------------​----------
The 100% excess in 1-14yo shows up bright yellow: [link to ibb.co (secure)]

NB:I will try to get the "deaths at home" excess numbers for next time.








a quick note on 2024:
===============
2024 is off to a fairly average start, similar to 2015-19.
NB: the ONS seem to have changed the format of their spreadsheet from just England & Wales to cover all four nations of the UK.
The easy-to-manage single horizontal row holding all deaths by age for a certain week, has been turned into a column, by age and then by nation so harder to compare to prev.

Excess Deaths, 2023 full year:
=============================
Right, here is the excess death for 2023 up to Week 52.
You will see it dropped off a little at the end, because I think the ONS counted the last few days of December 2023 as "Week 1" of 2024.
Except for babies <1yo, and 65-74yo ages, the excess deaths in 2023 were uniformly higher than in 2022.
(I wonder why 65-74 went down..?)

Anyway, here is the set of charts showing 2022 and 2023 excess deaths, by age:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

And here is the spreadsheet of excess deaths by age, showing a heatmap of Standard Deviations from the 2015-19 mean
(yellow and purple are true outliers, i.e. results not expected more than once in several years of weekly data):
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Concerning the reduction in deaths for <1yo, this is easily understood.
Although it seems crass to say it - the expected deaths in 2015-19 for babies <1yo was 2,683.
A 10% reduction in births (likely true for 2022 & 2023, see below) would mean about 268 fewer expected baby deaths in the following year.
This group of <1yo's rotates 100% in a calendar year, so it's a 100% transfer effect from the birth rate to the expected deaths.
We saw 269 fewer-than-expected baby deaths in 2022 compared to 2015-19 so it matches perfectly there.
For 2023, the deaths are creeping up again vs. 2022, so either births are returning to normal, or the death rate is higher than 2022.
Who knows? I'd bet on the latter.
Baby deaths explainer: [link to ibb.co (secure)]

Prior weeks:
Week ending 29-Dec: -6%% i.e. fewer deaths than expected compared to figures for 2015-2019 for the same week (holiday week).
Week ending 22-Dec: +14% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 08-Dec: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 01-Dec: +9% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 24-Nov: +10% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 17-Nov: +9% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 10-Nov: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 03-Nov: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 27-Oct: +7% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 20-Oct: +5% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 13-Oct: +7% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 06-Oct: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 29-Sep: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 22-Sep: +12% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 15-Sep: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 08-Sep: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 01-Sep: +2% (Holiday week) excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 25-Aug: +10% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 18-Aug: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 11-Aug: +10% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 04-Aug: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 28-Jul: +7% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 21-Jul: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 14-Jul: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 07-Jul: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 30-Jun: +12% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 23-Jun: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 16-Jun: +14% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 09-Jun: +10% (Spring Bank Holiday) excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 02-Jun: +8% (Spring Bank Holiday) excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 26-May: +12% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 19-May: +14% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 12-May: +8% (Bank Holiday) excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 05-May: +2% (Bank Holiday) excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 28-Apr: +16% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 21-Apr: +18% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 14-Apr: -5% (Easter) NO excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 07-Apr: -2% (Easter) NO excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 31-Mar: +14% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 24-Mar: +14% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 17-Mar: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 10-Mar: -1% lower than figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 03-Mar: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 03-Mar: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 24-Feb: +4% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 17-Feb: +3% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 10-Feb: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 03-Feb: +10% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 27-Jan: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 20-Jan: +20% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 13-Jan: +26% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 06-Jan: +23% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 30-Dec: +20% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 23-Dec: +26% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 16-Dec: +15% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 09-Dec: +9% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 02-Dec: +9% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 25-Nov: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 18-Nov: +12% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 11-Nov: +12% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 04-Nov: +19% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 28-Oct: +15% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 21-Oct: +21% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week.
Week ending 14-Oct: +19% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week
Week ending 07-Oct: +17% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week
Week ending 30-Sep: +17% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week
Week ending 23-Sep: -6% lower than 2015-2019 for the same week, due to QEII funeral bank holiday (reduction estimated at 1/7th = 15%)
Week ending 16-Sep: +15% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week
Week ending 09-Sep: +17% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week
Week ending 02-Sep: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week
Week ending 26-Aug: +19% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week
Week ending 19-Aug: 21% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week







(three weeks worth of data...)
Stats for England & Wales, weeks ending 17,24-Nov. & 01-Dec, 2023.
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

Latest: We have overall +9%, 10%, 9% excesses in weekly all-cause registered deaths, relative to the same weeks in 2015-19.
Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


-There were 11,243; 11,385; 11,328 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 893; 1,006; 970 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 162; 111; 116 (of 11,243; 11,385; 11,328 respectively) and deaths involving covid: 259; 174; 177 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a falling trend, despite new pneumonia reports. (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,149; 3,258; 3,197 (+10%, +12%, +12% excesses respectively over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same weeks of 2,850; 2,898; 2,850) (Table 10)





Stats for England & Wales, weeks ending 10-Nov., 2023.
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

Latest 10-Nov: We have an overall +11% excess in weekly all-cause registered deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


Week ending 10-Nov.: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,489 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 1,157 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 230 (of 10,983) 209 and deaths involving covid: 311 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a flattening-to-falling trend (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,204 (+12% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,867) (Table 10)


(three weeks' worth of data...)
Stats for England & Wales, weeks ending 20,27-Oct & 03-Nov., 2023.
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

Latest 03-Nov:
We have an overall +11% excess in weekly all-cause registered deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
This was preceeded (20,27-Oct.), by two weeks of >50% excess death in 1-14 year-olds.
Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


Week ending 03-Nov.:
- +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
- There were 10,983 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 1,094 excess deaths.
- Deaths due to covid: 230 (of 10,983) and deaths involving covid: 332 (Table 3).
- Covid Death figures are in a flattening trend, after a mini Summer wave. (Table 3).
- Deaths at home: 3,200 (+16% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,753) (Table 10)


Weeks ending 20,27-Oct.:
- Overall excesses of 5% and 7% respectively.
- 52% & 53% Excesses in the 1-14 year-old age group - over 2 S.D., twice in a row.



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 13-Oct-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have an overall +7% excess in weekly all-cause registered deaths, relative to the same two weeks in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


Week ending 13-Oct: +7% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,544 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 733 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 235 (of 10,544) and deaths involving covid: 352 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a flattening trend, after a mini Summer wave. (Table 3).
-24% Excess in the 15-44 year-old age group - over 2 S.D..
-Deaths at home: 3,002 (+9% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,756) (Table 10)




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 06-Oct-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have an overall +6% excess in weekly all-cause registered deaths, relative to the same two weeks in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

(I have made a trimmed plot this week to show up the strange deaths in the young)

Week ending 06-Oct: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,103 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 547 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 179 (of 10,103) and deaths involving covid: 255 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a flattening trend, after a mini Summer wave. (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,884 (+8% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,670) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 29-Sep-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]
We have now passed 40,000 excess deaths in 2023 so far, at Week 40.
By comparison, at the same point in 2022 we had 32,818 excess deaths.
This week, we have an overall +6% excess in weekly all-cause registered deaths, relative to the same two weeks in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(I have made a trimmed plot this week, to show up the strange deaths in the young)

Week ending 29-Sep: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 9,979 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 603 excess deaths.
-We see another large excess (54%) in 1-14 yo age-group, this, after an extraourdinary 73% excess four weeks ago, 33% last time and 43% the week before that.
-Deaths due to covid: 153 (of 9,979) and deaths involving covid: 232 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a flattening-to-falling trend, after a mini Summer wave. (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,802 (+8% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,586) (Table 10)




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 22-Sep-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have an overall +12% excess in weekly all-cause registered deaths, relative to the same two weeks in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers: [link to ibb.co (secure)]
(Scroll-right for latest, and note I have marked (in green) the many 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 22-Sep:
-There were 10,384 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 1,120 excess deaths.
-There were excess registered deaths in all age-groups,
-We see another large excess (33%) in 1-14 yo age-group, this, after an extraourdinary 73% excess four weeks ago, and a 43% excess last time.
-We see a >2 sigma excess (19%) in registered deaths in 45-64 yo's
-Deaths due to covid: 172 (of 10,384) and deaths involving covid: 262 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a shallow-and-flattening trend-rise. (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,974 (+19% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,494) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 15-Sep-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have an overall +11% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same two weeks in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(Scroll-right for latest, and note I have marked (in green) the many 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 15-Sep: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,355 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 1,047 excess deaths.
-We see another gigantic excess (43%) in 1-14 yo age-group, this, after an extraordinary 73% excess just three weeks ago.
-Deaths due to covid: 173 (of 10,355) and deaths involving covid: 248 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a shallow trend-rise. (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,927 (+12% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,622) (Table 10)


FOREWORD 19-SEPT-23:
===================
The ONS is a disgrace...My updates are based only on what they publish for free - registered deaths.

The substack below might explain the strange periods of 'consistency' about which Diffster commented - how, for periods months, there is an excess with almost no variation in week-to-week numbers (e.g a 1,000 excess for weeks on end... )
------------------------

[link to metatron.substack.com (secure)]
"Thanks to the efforts (and expense) of a subscriber, the ONS have released a dataset of deaths by date of occurrence and age for England and Wales, "

"If you plot the two data series for all ages, you see what the lazy ONS management sees."

"The current registration-date data anomalies represent nothing more than catching up with deaths that occurred a long time ago, possibly over a year. Any analysis using this dataset is erroneous at best."

------------------------

The substack graph of "cumulative excess mortality" shows this consistency, too.
The cumulative excess graph's slopes are ~constant for a while, then the slope will flatten off, then start upwards, again with a very constant slope.
It's like they are dribbling out the death records.
I'll say this: You can't spot public health disaster with that kind of data, unless it's gargantuan.


With the above in mind, here are the excess deaths (registered) for the last two weeks - note that the week ending 01-Sept included another bank holiday:



Stats for England & Wales, weeks ending 01,08-Sep-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have +11% and +2% excesses in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same two weeks in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(Scroll-right for latest, and note I have marked (in green) the many 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 08-Sep: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,168 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 985 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 148 (of 10,168) and deaths involving covid: 218 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a shallow trend-rise. (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,764 (+5% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,626) (Table 10)


Week ending 01-Sep (bank holiday in here): +2% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 8,441 all-cause deaths registered, corresponding to 200 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid:108 (of 8,441) and deaths involving covid: 155 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,328 (+7% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,184) (Table 10)

================================================
I had to look more closely at the 1-14yo figure.
A 73% excess.
Nearly doubled.
Yes, it is only 11 extra deaths, but, short of a schoolbus wreck this kind of increase is statisitcaly very unusual.
It corresponds to a >2.5 Standard Deviation move, a ~one-in-100 week event.
================================================

Stats for England & Wales, weeks ending 25-Aug-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have +10% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same two weeks in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers - scroll-right for the latest..
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

(note I have marked (in green) the many previous 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 25-Aug: +10% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-A Statisically significant 73% (over 2.5 Standard Deviation) excess in the 1-15yo age-group.
(Wow, that is an outlier!)

-There were 10,086 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 927 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 136 (of 9,991) and deaths involving covid: 203 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures have begun a trend-rise. (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,849 (+12% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,533) (Table 10)



Stats for England & Wales, weeks ending 11,18-Aug-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have +10% and +11% excesses in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same two weeks in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many previous 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)


Week ending 11-Aug: +10% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-A Statisically significant 26% (over 2 Standard Deviation) excess in the 15-44yo age-group.
-There were 9,991 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 888 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 74 (of 9,991) and deaths involving covid: 108 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures have begun a trend-rise. (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,994 (+16% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,576) (Table 10)


Week ending 18-Aug: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-A 16% (over 1 Standard Deviation) excess in the 75-84yo age-group.
-There were 10,063 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 975 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 86 (of 10,063) and deaths involving covid: 125 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,894 (+14% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,533) (Table 10)

Stats for England & Wales, week ending 04-Aug-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have an +11% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 04-Aug: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-A Statisically significant 21% (over 2 Standarsd Deviation) excess in the 45-64yo age-group.
-There were 10,038 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 1,004 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 47 (of 9,659) and deaths involving covid: 68 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 2,994 (+16% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,589) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 21-Jul-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +6% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 21-Jul: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 9,659 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 565 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 39 (of 9,659) and deaths involving covid: 70 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 2,946 (+15% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,553) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 14-Jul-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +8% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
-> This hides a 2.5 SD excess (30%) in 15-44 age-group.
-> The highest weekly deaths so far in 2023 for ages 15-19 and 25-29.


Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 14-Jul: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,030 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 780 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 47 (of 10,030) and deaths involving covid: 77 (Table 3).
-A greater than 2.5 Standard Deviation (30% excess) in the 15-44 age-group.
-A greater than 1 Standard Deviation (29% excess) in the 1-14 age-group.
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 2,898 (+12% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,586) (Table 10)




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 07-Jul-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +6% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 07-Jul: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 9,736 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 551 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 56 (of 9,736) and deaths involving covid: 95 (Table 3).
-A greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation (20% excess) in the 15-44 age-group.
-A greater than 1 Standard Deviation (13% excess) in the 75-84 age-group.
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 2,891 (+11% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,604) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 30-Jun-2023 & WE 23-Jun-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..for two weeks, due to previously incomplete figures for WE 23-Jun-2023
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

WE 23-Jun: We have a +11% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
WE 30-Jun: We have a +12% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 23-Jun: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,472 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 1,068 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 98 (of 10,472) and deaths involving covid: 154 (Table 3).
-A greater than 2.0 Standard Deviation (21% excess) in the 45-64 age-group.

Week ending 30-Jun: +12% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,373 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 1,078 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 79 (of 10,373) and deaths involving covid: 129 (Table 3).
-A (admittedly not statistically significant due to large fluctuations in this age-group) greater than 1.0 Standard Deviation (31% excess) in the 1-15 age-group.

-Covid Death figures are roughly in a declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home WE 23-June: 3118 (+21% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,572) (Table 10)
-Deaths at home WE 30-June: 3161 (+23% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,572) (Table 10)



[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

I thought perhaps to wait and do 23-June & 30-June in a 1-er next time.

FYI the ONS, even with the 'data processing issues' are reporting 10,472 deaths.
In 2015-19, for the same week of the year, the average was 9,404.
So, it's over 10% even with their issues..



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 16-Jun-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +14% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 16-Jun: +14% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,700 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 1,282 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 107 (of 10,700) and deaths involving covid: 156 (Table 3).
-All age-groups registered an excess in all-cause mortality (4th time so far in 2023)
-A greater than 1 Standard Deviation (14% excess) in the 45-64 age-group.
-A greater than 1 Standard Deviation (18% excess) in the 75-84 age-group.
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 3052 (+16% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,625) (Table 10)

Stats for England & Wales, week ending 09-Jun-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +10% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 09-Jun: +10% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,940 all-cause deaths, corresponding to 963 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 136 (of 10,940) and deaths involving covid: 211 (Table 3).
-A greater than 1 Standard Deviation (15% excess) in the 15-44 age-group.
-A greater than 1 Standard Deviation (12% excess) in the 45-64 age-group.
-A greater than 1 Standard Deviation (15% excess) in the 75-84 age-group.
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 2,978 (+8% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,767) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 02-Jun-2023 (*another* 'short week' due public holiday)
==================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have an +8% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 02-Jun: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 8,839 deaths corresponding to 667 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 124 (of 8,839) and deaths involving covid: 189 (Table 3).
-A greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation (22% excess) in the 15-44 age-group.
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 2,515 (+21% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,723) (Table 10)



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 26-May-2023
==================================================
England & Wales Government O.N.S. stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]


We have a +12% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked (in green) the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 26-May: +12% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,111 deaths corresponding to 1,170 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 169 (of 11,111) and deaths involving covid: 262 (Table 3).
-A greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation (19% excess) in the 15-44 & 45-64 age-groups.
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 3,195 a 17% excess over the ONS' five year average years 17-19 & 21-22 for the same week of 2,723 see Table 10



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 19-May-2023
========================================================

England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +14% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked --in green-- the many recent short 4-day 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)
Week ending 19-May: +14% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,654 deaths corresponding to 1,465 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 204 (of 11,654) and deaths involving covid: 322 (Table 3).
-There is an excess in all age-groups, possibly related to the two successive holiday weeks.
-A greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation (20% excess) in the 75-84yo age-group.
-The >3 SD excess in babies was mirrored last week by a similar deficit, and corresponds to 13 deaths in the week.
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a stable-to-declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 3,375 (+22% excess over the ONS' five year average (years 17-19 & 21-22)



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 12-May-2023 (*another* 'short week' due public holiday)
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]


We have a +8% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
(Note this is another holiday week, typically 15-20% lower recording)

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked in the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom.)

Week ending 12-May: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,367 deaths corresponding to 793 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 207 (of 10,367) and deaths involving covid: 309 (Table 3).
-Despite the holiday, there is a greater than 1 Standard Deviation (16% excess) in the 15-44yo age-group.
-Also a greater than 1 Standard Deviation (11% excess) in the 45-64yo age-group.
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a stable-to-declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 2,861 (+11% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,684) (Table 10)



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 5-May-2023 (another 'short week' due public holiday)
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]


We have a +2% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
(Note this is another holiday week, typically 15-20% lower recording)

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
(note I have marked in the many recent 'holiday weeks' at the bottom of the spreadsheet.)

Week ending 5-May: +2% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 10,143 deaths corresponding to 204 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 203 (of 10,143) and deaths involving covid: 310 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a stable-to-declining trend. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 2,895 (+16% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,486) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 28-Apr-2023.
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]


We have a +16% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
(Note this is a 23.3% excess over the same week for the years 2017-19 & 2021-22, as our friend L77 has shown in the main covid thread..)

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 28-Apr: +16% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 12,152 deaths corresponding to 1,695 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 301 (of 12,152) and deaths involving covid: 459 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a stable-to-declining trend. (Table 3).

-All age-groups have above-average i.e. excess deaths - only the second time this year.
-There is a greater than 2 Standard Deviation (24% excess) in the 15-44yo age-group.
-There is a greater than 2 Standard Deviation (23% excess) in the 45-64yo age-group.
-Deaths at home: 3,417 (+23% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,771) (Table 10)


First non-Easter holiday week of April just got reported.
Sigh. It's back to SNAFU..
Stats for England & Wales, week ending 21-Apr-2023.
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +18% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Here are some 'heat map' tables showing the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 21-Apr: +18% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 12,420 deaths corresponding to 1,928 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 358 (of 12,420) and deaths involving covid: 538 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are roughly in a stable-to-declining trend. (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation (26% excess) in the 75-84yo age-group.

-Deaths at home: 3,434 (+29% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,663) (Table 10)




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 07-Apr-2023.
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

Well, we managed a week with overall no excess deaths!
215 less than the average for the week for the period 2015-2019.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

There are small (statistically insignificant) excesses in the 1-14y age-groups, but overall this is a good week!

-There were 10,089 deaths, 215 below the 2015-2019 average for the week.
-Deaths due to covid are now falling again: 361 (of 10,089) and deaths involving covid fell to 513 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 2,816 (+8% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,608) (Table 10)

I will look again next week.
I sincerely hope this trend continues.




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 31-Mar-2023.
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

Overall, We have a +14% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 31-Mar: +14% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,584 deaths corresponding to 1,461 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 432 (of 11,584) and deaths involving covid: 634 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,282 (+29% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,550) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 24-Mar-2023.
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

Notably, we have large excesses in the 1-14yo and 15-44yo age groups...
Overall, We have a +14% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
This is in a rising trend, and not looking good at all.
I did think perhaps Easter holidays might be an effect to consider, but it seems the expected deaths 2015-2019 are very stable at around 10k/month well into the Summer from here...

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
Notably, we have a 33% excess in the 1-14yo age-group. The highest (again!) it's been all year.
We also have a 26% excess in the 15-44yo age-group. This follows excesses of 23%, 22%, 21%, 32% in the prior four weeks for this age-group (15-44).
The 15-44yo excess of 26% corresponds to a >2-sigma result, another 1-in-20-week event, after four weeks which included a 1-in-100-week event....

Week ending 24-Mar: +14% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 12,052 deaths corresponding to 1,483 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 425 (of 12,052) and deaths involving covid: 624 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,421 (+22% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,797) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 17-Mar-2023.
========================================================
England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

Notably, we have large excesses in the 1-14yo and 15-44yo age groups...
Overall, We have a +8% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
We have a 32% excess in the 1-14yo age-group. The highest it's been all year.
We also have a 23% excess in the 15-44yo age-group. This follows excesses of 22%, 21%, 32% in the prior three weeks for this age-group (15-44).

Week ending 17-Mar: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 12,133 deaths corresponding to 928 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 376 (of 12,133) and deaths involving covid: 559 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,575 (+23% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,901) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 10-Mar-2023.
========================================================

England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

Do not be fooled by the overall number getting lower.. the overall number os dominated by 85+ year-olds, and I suspect shenannigans there (midazolam shortage, anyone?)
Notably, we have excesses in the 1-14yo and 15-44yo age groups: 24% and 22% respectively (+1 and +1.5 Standard Deviation excesses).
(Last week, was another +21% (+1.5 S.D.) excess in the 15-44yo age-group, which itself followed a ~1-in-100-week event of +32% excess..)..

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 10-Mar: -1% lower than same week in 2015-2019
-There were 11,410 deaths overall.
-Deaths due to covid: 363 (of 11,410) and deaths involving covid: 533 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,245 (+9% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,974) (Table 10)

Stats for England & Wales, week ending 03-Mar-2023.
========================================================

England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have an +8% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
Notably, we have a 21% (+1.5 Standard Deviation) excess in the 15-44yo age-group.
(Last week, a +2.5 S.D. excess should have been about a ~1-in-100 week event, i.e. about once in two years!)

Week ending 03-Mar: +8% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 12,049 deaths corresponding to 868 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 349 (of 12,049) and deaths involving covid: 513 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,484 (+21% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,869) (Table 10)

Stats for England & Wales, week ending 24-Feb-2023.
========================================================

England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +4% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:

Notably, we have a 32% (+2.5 Standard Deviation) excess in the 15-44yo age-group. The highest it's been all year.
(A 2.5 S.D. excess should be about ~1-in-100 week event, about once in two years!)

Week ending 24-Feb: +4% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,952 deaths corresponding to 408 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 280 (of 11,952) and deaths involving covid: 420 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,402 (+14% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,992) (Table 10)



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 17-Feb-2023.
========================================================

England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +4% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
Notably, we have a 32% (+2.5 Standard Deviation) excess in the 15-44yo age-group. The highest it's been all year.
(A 2.5 S.D. excess should be about ~1-in-100 week event, about once in two years!)

Week ending 24-Feb: +4% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,952 deaths corresponding to 408 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 280 (of 11,952) and deaths involving covid: 420 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,402 (+14% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,992) (Table 10)




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 17-Feb-2023.
========================================================

England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +4% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
Notably, we have a 32% (+2.5 Standard Deviation) excess in the 15-44yo age-group. The highest it's been all year.
(A 2.5 S.D. excess should be about ~1-in-100 week event, about once in two years!)

Week ending 24-Feb: +4% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,952 deaths corresponding to 408 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 280 (of 11,952) and deaths involving covid: 420 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,402 (+14% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,992) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 17-Feb-2023.
========================================================

England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +4% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]
Notably, we have a 32% (+2.5 Standard Deviation) excess in the 15-44yo age-group. The highest it's been all year.
(A 2.5 S.D. excess should be about ~1-in-100 week event, about once in two years!)

Week ending 24-Feb: +4% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,952 deaths corresponding to 408 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 280 (of 11,952) and deaths involving covid: 420 (Table 3).
-Deaths at home: 3,402 (+14% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 2,992) (Table 10)



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 17-Feb-2023.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +3% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
Things might be are cooling off for a bit.
This excess is well-within the scope of population changes (more aged) since 2015-19 average.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 17-Feb: +3% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 12,031 deaths corresponding to 406 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 265 (of 12,031) and deaths involving covid: 416 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are declining since mid-Jan. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 3,440 (+11% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 3,124) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 10-Feb-2023.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +6% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.
Things might be cooling off for a bit.
This excess is in the ballpark of population changes (more aged) since 2015-19 average.

Heat map tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 10-Feb: +6% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 12,672 deaths corresponding to 745 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 305 (of 12,672) and deaths involving covid: 446 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are declining since mid-Jan. (Table 3).

-Deaths at home: 3,767 (+21% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 3,124) (Table 10)




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 03-Feb-2023.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +10% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 03-Feb: +10% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 13,412 deaths corresponding to 1,208 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 332 (of 13,412) and deaths involving covid: 499 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are declining since mid-Jan. (Table 3).
-Deaths exceeded the 2015-2019 average in all age groups (unusual).
-There is a greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation 16% excess in the 45-64yo age-group.
(Note tha the UK 'booster' campaign was restricted to over-50's, starting in Sept. 2022)

-Deaths at home: 3,929 (+23% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 3,192) (Table 10)



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 27-Jan-2023.
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COMMENT: Drop is mostly due to the over70's not dying as much. There is still a really significant excess in the 45-64yo group.

England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +11% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 27-Jan: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 14,137 deaths corresponding to 1,376 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 407 (of 14,137) and deaths involving covid: 579 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are declining stable since mid-Jan. (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 2 Standard Deviation 20% excess in the 45-64yo age-group.
(Note tha the UK 'booster' campaign was restricted to over-50's, starting in Sept. 2022)

-Deaths at home: 4,132 (+24% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 3,345) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 20-Jan-2023.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +20% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


Week ending 20-Jan: +20% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 15,804 deaths corresponding to 2,591 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 562 (of 15,804) and deaths involving covid: 781 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are roughly stable since the start of the year. (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 2.5 Standard Deviation (24% excess) in the 45-64yo age-group.
-(Note, the 'bivalent booster' was restricted mainly to over 50's in the UK)
-There is also a greater than 2 Standard Deviation (29% excess) in the 15-44yo age-group.

-Deaths at home: 4,345 (+29% excess over the ONS' five year average (years '17-'19 & '21-'22) for the same week of 3,375) (Table 10)

Stats for England & Wales, week ending 13-Jan-2023.
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Well, it was Friday the 13th....

England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

For week 2 of 2023, we have a +26% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 13-Jan: +26% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 17,381 deaths corresponding to 3,559 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 654 (of 17,381) and deaths involving covid: 922 (Table 3).
-There is a 'greater than 2 Standard Deviation' 24% excess in the 45-64yo age-group.
-There is a 'greater than 2 Standard Deviation' 31% excess in the 75-84yo age-group.

-All age-groups 1yo-and-over showed excess deaths. (Note, the 'bivalent booster' was restricted mainly to over 50's in the UK)

-Deaths at home: 4,515 (+32% excess over the five year average for the same week of 3,433) (Table 10)


Scotland just reported 29% excess deaths for Week 2 2023
================================================
[link to www.nrscotland.gov.uk (secure)]

"The provisional total number of all deaths registered in Scotland in week 02 of 2023 (9th to 15th January) was 2,020 (450 or 29% above the 5-year average)."

-btw I think that 'average' includes 'pandemic' years, so it's HUGE.



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 06-Jan-2023.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

For week 1 of 2023, we have a +23% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 06-Jan-23: +23% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 14,983 deaths corresponding to 2,808 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 532 (of 14,983) and deaths involving covid: 739 (Table 3).
-There is a 'greater than 2 Standard Deviation' 24% excess in the 15-44yo age-group.
-There is a 'greater than 2 Standard Deviation' 27% excess in the 75-84yo age-group.

-All age-groups 15-and-over showed excess deaths. (Note, the 'bivalent booster' was restricted mainly to over 50's in the UK)

-Deaths at home: 3,699 (+20% excess over the five year average for the same week of 3,072) (Table 10)







Stats for England & Wales, week ending 30-Dec-2022.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

For week 52, we have a +20% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 30-Dec: +20% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 9,517 deaths corresponding to 1,563 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 279 (of 9,517) and deaths involving covid: 393 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are now roughly flat since mid-December, after being in a falling trend since 21st Oct 2022. (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation 26% excess in the 75-84yo age-group.
-All age-groups 45-and-over showed excess deaths. (Note, the 'bivalent booster' was restricted mainly to over 50's in the UK)

-Deaths at home: 2,540 (+37% excess over the five year average for the same week of 1,856) (Table 10)




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 23-Dec-2022.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

For week 51, we have a +26% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 23-Dec: +26% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 14,530 deaths corresponding to 2,982 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 308 (of 14,530) and deaths involving covid: 429 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are now in a mild rising trend since 2nd Dec 2022, after being in a falling trend since 21st Oct 2022. (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 2.5 Standard Deviation 27% excess in the 45-64yo age-group.
-There is a greater than 2.0 Standard Deviation 30% excess in the 75-84yo age-group.

-Deaths at home: 4,107 (+37% excess over the five year average for the same week of 2,987) (Table 10)




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 02-Dec-2022.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +9% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

Unfortunately NO HEATMAP from here as imgbb.com have seemingly stopped the ability to upload via tor :(

Week ending 02-Dec: +9% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,307 deaths corresponding to 950 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 196 (of 11,307) and deaths involving covid: 317 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a falling trend since 21st Oct. (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 1 Standard Deviation 26% excess in the 1-14yo age-group.
-There is also a greater than 1 Standard Deviation 10% excess in the 45-64yo age-group.

-Deaths at home: 3,231 (+20% excess over the five year average for the same week of 2,699) (Table 10)

Prior weeks:


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 25-Nov-2022.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +11% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


Week ending 25-Nov: +11% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,483 deaths corresponding to 1,103 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 215 (of 11,483) and deaths involving covid: 348 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a falling trend since 21st Oct. (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation 21% excess in the 15-44yo age-group.
-There is a greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation 16% excess in the 45-64yo age-group.

-Deaths in all age-groups over 14yo were above average for the week..
-Deaths at home: 3,330 (+22% excess over the five year average for the same week of 2,732) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 18-Nov-2022.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +12% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


Week ending 18-Nov: +12% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,579 deaths corresponding to 1,229 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 258 (of 11,579) and deaths involving covid: 423 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a falling trend since 21st Oct. (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation 19% excess in the 15-44yo age-group.

-Deaths in all age-groups over 14yo were above average for the week..
-Deaths at home: 3,295 (+23% excess over the five year average for the same week of 2,679) (Table 10)



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 11-Nov-2022.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +12% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 11-Nov: +12% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,538 deaths corresponding to 1,207 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 361 (of 11,538) and deaths involving covid: 518 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a falling trend (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 1 Standard Deviation 35% excess in the 1-15yo age-group. - but this corresponds to ~5 deaths, so not very significant.

-Deaths in all age-groups were above average for the week..
-Deaths at home: 3,302 (+22% excess over the five year average for the same week of 2,697) (Table 10)






Stats for England & Wales, week ending 04-Nov-2022.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +19% excess in weekly all-cause deaths, relative to the same week in 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


Week ending 04-Nov: +19% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,795 deaths corresponding to 1,904 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 418 (of 11,795) and deaths involving covid: 650 (Table 3).
-Covid Death figures are in a falling trend (Table 3).
-There is a greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation 23% excess in the 75-84yo age-group.
-There is a greater than 1.5 Standard Deviation 18% excess in the 45-64yo age-group.

-Deaths in all age-groups over 15yo were above average for the week..
-Deaths at home: 3,329 (+30% excess over the five year average for the same week of 2,563) (Table 10)


Stats for England & Wales, week ending 28-Oct 2022.
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England & Wales Government (O.N.S.) stats.
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +15% excess in weekly all-cause deaths relative to the same week-of-the-year average for 2015-2019.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


Week ending 28 Oct: +15% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,245 deaths corresponding to 1,486 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 428 (of 11,245) and deaths involving covid: 651. (Table 3)

-Deaths in age-groups over 15yo were above average for the week..
-Deaths at home: 3,160 (+26% excess over the five year average for the same week of 2,508) (Table 10)



Stats for England & Wales, week ending 21-Oct 2022.
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[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +21% excess in weekly all-cause deaths.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


Week ending 21 Oct: +21% excess over figures for 2015-2019, for the same week of the year.
-There were 11,938 deaths corresponding to 2,073 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 469 (of 11,938) and deaths involving covid: 687. (Table 3)
-There is a greater than 2 Standard Deviations 26% excess in the 75-84yo age-group.
-There is a greater than 2 Standard Deviations 20% excess in the 45-64yo age-group.

-Deaths in all age-groups were above average for the week..
-Deaths at home: 3,332 (+31% excess over the five year average for the same week of 2,542) (Table 10)




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 14-Oct 2022.
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ONS stats out today..
[link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

We have a +19% excess in weekly all-cause deaths.

My 'heat map' tables show the age-breakdown and numbers:
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Week ending 14 Oct: +19% excess over figures for 2015-2019 for the same week
-There were 11,699 deaths corresponding to 1,888 excess deaths.
-Deaths due to covid: 374 (of 11,699) and deaths involving covid: 565. (Table 3)
-There is a greater than 3 Standard Deviation 76% excess in the 1-14yo age-group.
-Deaths in all age-groups at/above 1yo were above average for the week..
-Deaths at home: 3,251 (+27% excess over the five year average for the same week of 2,563) (Table 10)




.....




Stats for England & Wales, week ending 26th August 2022.
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TABLES: [link to ibb.co (secure)]

So, what did I find this week?
-10,942 deaths - of which 1,785 were *excess* deaths (on a 2015-2019 average of 9,157 deaths for the week).
-That is 19% above average, based on 2015-2019 (previous weeks in 2022, going backwards in time were: Aug19:+21%, Aug12:+14%, Aug5:+18%, Jul29:+22%, Jul22:+21%, Jul15:+14%... above average!)
-Only 453 of the 1,785 excess deaths were 'involving COVID' (note this is the most generous measure of attributing the excess to covid!)
-ALL age-groups reported excess deaths - i.e. deaths above the 2015-2019 mean for the week in question.
-A two-Standard Deviation excess observed in the 45-64 age-group has now been running for two consecutive weeks.
-Excess deaths in the 1-14y category were 41% above average, though this figure does fluctuate a lot due to low statistics so it is only a significance of 1.5xS.D.

source: [link to www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]

Last Edited by S-man on 04/26/2024 06:20 AM