Storm: INVEST 98 Wednesday afternoon 12z Spaghetti Models with Florida in sights

Way to far out to worry.

NHC has it happening close to this at 70%....

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Pensacola Here- don't fall for the fear porn. Just keep an eye on it. Most of us are always prepared.

Will probably be the 1st major to and perhaps the only major this year to threaten the US mainland. Currently looking like central to Eastern gulf coast threat.

So when do you start worrying the day before when everyone else is worry and everything is empty in the stores and the gas stations are out of gas?

I don't think anyone's worrying at this point, but good to keep an eye on it for sure.

The point for posting was that there is a good chance it will make the gulf in a few days.

After that it is anyone's guess....

No need to worry. Just quietly go about getting your preps completed. When you do that, you won't be in the long lines or stymied if supplies run out. You'll already have yours ready.

If you are a FL resident, this is a practice you should engage in every hurricane season anyway.

The last time gas was low (lower than now!), we filled up about 6 gas cans, so we've got a small store of gas for our generators.

We always keep about 8 cases of water....and I've got a stack of tarps. Just bought some more duct tape and totes today in order to bug out if we need to. Fully stocked on food, so I will NOT need to hit the stores to grab bread and p/nut butter when the word comes down that this thing is headed our way.

That's my advice....start putting things together now and you won't need to freak out or worry.

Of course, what you'll do to "weather" the storm is a different kind of worry and that depends on where you live and how strong your dwelling is. Only you can know those details.

Forewarned is fore armed.

I live in Tampa Bay area, so please keep us updated. I pinned the Weathernerds link but a little tricky to use and I don't see NOAA having much up on that storm yet.

I like to follow Mike's Weather, he's from the area and posts good maps and info:

[link to spaghettimodels.com (secure)]

If you follow the link below, there is a red X. Hover over that X and it will give you the info on the disturbance. Chances of formation are 90% through 5 days now....

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)]

It looks like whatever makes it to gulf will stay weak - 980mb,making it only a category 1.

Done well. So three days to formation....

In Tampa Bay area our ground is saturated. We've had the wettest summer I can probably ever remember. Even a cat one could cause catastrophic flooding, not to mention a cat one is still enough to tear roofs down, power lines down, trees down, and put power out for weeks.

We are extremely densely populated here, and the past few years of all the northerners moving here has made it way worse. The last big storm to head this way had us out of even things like bread almost a week in advance. People were acting crazy.