Asteroid may be visible on Thursday.

MAY HIT A SAT. AND DEFLECT DOWN INTO U.S.!~

That's funny Justmetx had it at 3:17 east coast???

I would be worried more because of the satellites crashing into one another then them coming down over my head.

That margin of error from 3 different sources is worrying. They really don't know? Hopefully, NASA is the most accurate?

Last Edited by Lago on 01/25/2023 10:53 AM

EXTREMELY CLOSE ASTEROID FLYBY: There's no danger of a collision, but... Newly-discovered asteroid 2023 BU will make an extremely close approach to Earth this Thursday. On Jan 26th at 21:17 UTC (16:17 EST), the 5-meter-wide space rock will be just 3500 km above South America, well within our planet's belt of geosynchronous satellites. Europe's Virtual Telescope Project will live stream the flyby.

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

YES..THAT'S IT. HOW BIG IS THIS THING?

If you "enter full screen", pan-out using mouse, and go forwards/backwards in time using buttons, that looks awfully close!

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Lago on 01/25/2023 11:27 AM

"For accurate ephemerides, please instead use our Horizons system. This orbit viewer was implemented using two-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances."

Also, 2023 BL1 isn't coming nearly as close as 2023 BU, but 2023 BU is very small.

Anyway, I'd track it and stream it tonight, but unfortunately the forecast is calling for rain so no can do.

Last Edited by Astromut on 01/25/2023 11:16 AM

The real danger in all this is the Kessler Syndrome. A satellite gets busted up, and a piece hits another satellite, and on and one. It escalates, and before long, there is so much space junk, we can't safely get into orbit, or leave the planet.

Goodbye GPS, Starlink, and long-exposure astrophotography, since the space junk trails will make it tough to see.

Last Edited by IAMTHATGUY on 01/25/2023 11:29 AM

KESSLUH MAY INDEED BE THE CATALYST FOR LOTS OF PROBS. CASCADE.

What do you think the REAL likelihood is of this happening?

Tried Horizons system "no matching bodies found"

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Lago on 01/25/2023 11:35 AM

I found it with no issue. Did you use proper capitalization of BU?

THANKS! I am only an amateur, can you interpret this readout after clicking "generate ephemeris"?

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Lago on 01/25/2023 11:45 AM

Interpret what? It's a dynamic page, so I don't see whatever it is you're seeing.

2023 BU
start date jan27 end date Jan 28 time interval 1 hour

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Lago on 01/25/2023 03:36 PM

2023-Jan-27 00:00 05 36 25.46 -15 49 26.7 11.257 n.a. 0.00009763564414 -4.5253559 124.0871 /T 55.9081 5361.0333 220.58166 -35.57426 n.a. n.a.

Is that bolded underlined (me) number on January 27 a distance?

Last Edited by Lago on 01/25/2023 11:56 AM

It doesn't work like that. Whatever you're putting in is not copied in the link. When I go to the page I only see the settings I previously put in there for myself.

Depends on your table settings, which I can't see. But it looks like it's probably some kind of distance in AU.

Is this the one that's going to blast the Earth to smithereens?

That appears to calculate to about 9000 miles?

Last Edited by Lago on 01/25/2023 03:37 PM

This asteroid kicking off the Kessler Syndrome?

Massively UNlikely.

The Kessler Syndrome actually coming to pass?

Unless Earth gets an orbital hygene program going, virtually GUARANTEED.

changed time interval to minutes..


2023-Jan-27 00:28 00 34 17.24 -51 20 42.1 14. n.a. 0.00006671102255 0.2331987 56.7571 /T 123.2388 11480.331 268.99632 1.4454486 n.a. n.a.

Now we are down to about 5000 miles. Wondering what the % accuracy is?

This is now passing through the satellite belt..

"Our society relies on more than 800 satellites operating in the radiation belts for communication and navigation. The outer radiation belt is typically about 8,400 to 36,000 miles above Earth's surface. The most intense area of radiation within the outer belt is between about 9,000-12,000 miles above Earth's"

Last Edited by Lago on 01/26/2023 01:56 PM

Yes, this asteroid will be passing very, very close. It's very small though. If all you wanted to know was the miss distance and uncertainty, it's listed in the close approach table on the small body lookup page:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)]
That will show the minimum distance at 3-sigma.

The next question would be how long does it fly through the satellite belt?

0.00032 = about 30,000 miles

2023-Jan-27 02:54 17 22 56.09 +19 38 34.5 16.603 n.a. 0.00032274688621

0.00006 = about 5000 miles

2023-Jan-27 00:28 00 34 17.24 -51 20 42.1 14. n.a. 0.00006671102255

over 2 hours! Actually its double that time-close to 5 hours! (flying in and out) How fast is it traveling? Can anybody help?

Last Edited by Lago on 01/25/2023 01:22 PM

I found this snippet:

"Asteroids zip through space at astonishing velocities. The speed at which asteroids move depends on their distance to the Sun. The closer they are, the greater the speed. That said, even Earth-crossing asteroids, or NEOs, travel around 25 kilometers per second — yep, per second!"

OK 4 hours = 360,000 miles That's quite a time and distance to hit a satellite.

I guess there are too many variables to calculate the chances of a collision with a satellite?

Last Edited by Lago on 01/25/2023 01:42 PM