SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Well the tiny new spot did what the big Delta spot couldn't do (M) and then doubled down (X). Sadly this region will disappear from view soon.

its geoactive any way.... Hugh


so will blast ... will come


what is the velocity

next Q

Yeah, and it will get stable and uninteresting.

WOW WOW WOW!!!



Oh whoa, last time we had a storm in the Gulf too. Irma. :O

is excalating .... more ?

big big eq in 15 hours

SDO (HMI) pic of AR2838 shortly after the X-flare--

:AR2838_HMIIC:

M 1 flare!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

SDO image link: [link to sdo.oma.be]

Coronal Mass Ejection:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Possibly from the M 1 flare...

Finally.

:Issued: 2021 Jul 03 1830 UTC
:Product: documentation at [link to www.comesep.eu]
#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#
# COMESEP SEP Forecast message from BIRA-IASB (Brussels, Belgium), #
# forwarded by the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#

Forecast for a SEP radiation storm following a X1.5 flare with peak at
2021-07-03 14:29UT. The expected risk level is MEDIUM for a SEP storm of
protons > 10 MeV (occurrence probability: POSSIBLE; storm level: MODERATE).
The expected risk level is MEDIUM for a SEP storm of protons > 60 MeV (occurrence
probability: POSSIBLE; storm level: MODERATE).

[link to www.sidc.be]

https://imgur.com/klPpl9x

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Solarsoft close-up movie shows a blob of ejecta from the M 1 event (AIA 304):

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

SWPC Alerts for the X flare--

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1090
Issue Time: 2021 Jul 03 1624 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Jul 03 1437 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 357 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 118
Issue Time: 2021 Jul 03 1500 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2021 Jul 03 1418 UTC
Maximum Time: 2021 Jul 03 1429 UTC
End Time: 2021 Jul 03 1434 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.5
Optical Class: sf
Location: N25W86
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

That 1st Spear will touch us and will tansfer a lot of Power in to us...

Spining Earth rotation

Another M-flare event in progress...M1.5 from AR2838.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Wow! This little spot is an angry feisty li'l sucker.

SolarDemon movie of M 1.5 flare:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2021 Jul 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 185 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Jul 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2835 S18W43 055 0620 Dkc 10 33 Beta-Delta
2836 S26W50 062 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2837 N17E01 011 0020 Bxo 06 04 Beta
2838 N24W88 100 0030 Cro 04 03 Beta

Today was the highest Sunspot Number (72) since late Nov. 2020 when a flurry of sunspots kicked off Cycle 25.

The year in review courtesy of SOLEN.info:

[link to www.solen.info]

I'm still holding out hope that the largest sunspot 2835 has one good blast in him. More than half of these large spots are stable and disappointing flare-wise, in my estimation. Yet, AR2835 is a dominating presence on the Earth-facing disk.

Also note 2 new emerging sunspots in the northern hemisphere.

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Jul 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels today as Region 2838 (N24W88,
Cro/beta) produced an M2/Sf at 03/0717 UTC, an X1/Sn at 03/1429 UTC, and
an M1/Sf flare at 03/1703 UTC. Associated with the M2 and X1 flares were
CMEs off the W limb beginning at 03/0748 UTC and 03/1448 UTC. Two
additional CMEs were observed off the W limb at 03/0412 UTC and 03/0848
UTC but were likely from around the W limb as the source region was
undiscernible. Model results of the CMEs indicated no geoeffective
component.

Accurate sunspot/magnetic analysis of Region 2838 was hampered due to
limb proximity.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1:Minor Radio Blackouts) with
a chance for high levels (R2-R3:Moderate-Strong Radio Blackouts) on 04
Jul due to continued activity from Region 2838. Activity is expected to
slowly decrease to a chance for moderate levels with a slight chance for
high levels on 05 Jul as Region 2838 rotates around the NW limb. By 06
Jul, solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance
for moderate levels.

THAT's 4 CMEs from the west limb, in case your keeping score at home.....



Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 07/04/2021 03:06 AM

C-Flare 95%
M-Flare 55%
X-Flare 25%

When is the last time we saw those numbers? :)

Flaring Sunspot Blows M-Class Flare - Solar Update July 4, 2021


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Today's C 1 flare attributed to spotless region 2836.

movie:
[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

I believe this is more likely a filament activation. Several filaments lurking in the area, and one may have lifted off. However no significant CME I could find.

Filaments before C-flare:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

And after C-flare:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

c'mon team! UH