SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters say there is a 60% chance of M-class solar flares and a 15% chance of X-flares today. The most likely source is giant sunspot AR3190, which is directly facing Earth.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Yes, that fat fluffy filament in the SW lifted off dramatically. And then a smaller chunk of filament erupted near mid-disk. This second one may affect our spaceweather in a few days.

Right at the beginning of this GONG h-alpha movie (you can slow it down):

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

SEEDS movie of CMEs (2nd wave appears Earth-directed):

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Several more filaments are visible on the Earth-facing disk now.

GONG (Big Bear, CA):

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

[link to www.space.com (secure)]

NINE numbered regions still on the Earth-facing disk. Despite the lack of strong flares, AR3190 is classified as Beta-Gamma-Delta.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 24 Issued at 0030Z on 24 Jan 2023
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 23 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3190 S14W57 121 0720 Ekc 12 14 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3191 N10W71 132 0040 Cao 02 02 Beta
3192 N15W56 119 0130 Cao 04 05 Beta
3194 S25W70 131 0140 Dao 08 08 Beta
3196 N13W22 084 0020 Cso 03 04 Beta
3197 N24W10 072 0010 Axx 04 04 Alpha
3198 N27E03 059 0030 Cso 05 03 Beta
3199 N16E20 040 0080 Dai 07 12 Beta
3200 N21E47 013 0070 Cao 02 02 Beta

AR3190-


:3190_mag2:

EXTREMELY CLOSE ASTEROID FLYBY: There's no danger of a collision, but... Newly-discovered asteroid 2023 BU will make an extremely close approach to Earth this Thursday. On Jan 26th at 21:17 UTC (16:17 EST), the 5-meter-wide space rock will be just 3500 km above South America, well within our planet's belt of geosynchronous satellites. Europe's Virtual Telescope Project will live stream the flyby.

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)]

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

The Oracle's Cookie

A BIG UNSTABLE SUNSPOT: Giant sunspot AR3190 is turning away from Earth. It's still dangerous. The reason why is shown in this magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://imgur.com/nxDAubx

The sunspot's primary dark core is actually a huge pole of negative (-) magnetism closely surrounded by multiple islands of positive (+) polarity. This is exactly how solar flares get started. When + and - bump together in close proximity, magnetic reconnection can cause tremendous explosions. AR3190 poses a threat for X-class solar flares.

Even though AR3190 is not facing Earth, the broad spray of any X-flare will still illuminate our planet with X-rays and extreme UV radiation. Radio blackouts and other effects remain possible as long as we can see the departing sunspot.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

0.00007 au



Glad it's a small asteroid

Let there be no doubt that Cycle 25 has reached a new high level of both solar flux and sunspots. I personally prefer the F10.7 flux measurement as a standard.

Where we are now:

[link to www.solen.info]

If Cycle 25 turns out to be double-peaked like Cycle 24, we may see the first peak as early as this year... and a second Max peak in 2025.

Here's a comparison of Cycle 24 and Cycle 25:

[link to solen.info (secure)]

2023 should give us some outstanding outbursts of major flares and CMEs....shoon.

Strange eruption of C9.5 from AR3192 and friends.

Solarsoft cutout movie:

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Solar Demon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Lots of stuff going on there....

I have a gut feeling that AR3190 will explode at some point as it reaches the limb. We may even see an X4 flare and a crazy CME soon. Of course he may wait to be on the farside for the 'big event'. I'm hoping it pops in next 24 hrs.... If it does be prepared for a major proton storm.

AR3190-

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

High M ... jumpin... influences ... warmin Earth

Eruptive M 4.6 and CME from AR3190.

AR3192 erupted simultaneously....

GOES X-Rays:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

GOES SUVI images:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Solar Demon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Earth needs a bit of warming now.....

"Polar stratospheric clouds are rare. Earth's stratosphere is very dry and normally it has no clouds at all. PSCs form when the temperature in the Arctic stratosphere drops to a staggeringly-low -85 C. Then, and only then, can widely-spaced water molecules begin to coalesce into tiny ice crystals...."

Full report here:
[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

in did
Ty

its goin neutral vibration first


the Bzzzzzzzzz its - or +

STEREO diff movie of CME from the M4.7 event:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Not Earth-directed:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

M1.4 from AR3192 (appears to be another combination flare w/'90 & '92):

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Latest GOES SUVI loop:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

M2.0 flare from NW limb.... AR3192?

GOES UV images:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Today's update from SWPC--

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with a long duration M4.6 flare
at 25/1011 UTC, an M1/Sf flare at 25/1701 UTC, and an M2 at 25/2235 UTC.
The source region for the first two flares appears to be Region 3190
(S14W89, Dkc/beta-gamma). However, simultaneous brightening was observed
during the second event from a region just beyond the NW limb, providing
an additional flare signature. An M2 flare was then observed from Region
3192 at 25/2235 UTC. Lack of available coronagraph imagery is currently
preventing confirmation of any CMEs associated with the second or third
flare events. Analysis of available coronagraph and STEREO imagery for
the CME associated with the first flare (M4/Sf) indicated a miss well
west of Earth.

Regions 3190 and 3192 (N15W84, Cao/beta) are likely still the most
magnetically complex regions, but accurate analysis is vastly degraded
as they rotate around the west limb and out of view.

Region 3196 (N19W41, Cso/beta) exhibited minor growth, while the
majority of the previously existing spot groups were either stable or in
decay. New Regions 3202 (N13W47, Cao/beta) and 3203 (N18E31, Bxo/beta)
emerged and were numbered near the end of the period.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) and slight chance for an isolated X-class flare
(R3-Strong) on 26 Jan as Regions 3190 and 3192 rotate just beyond the
west limb. Probabilities drop slightly by 27 Jan as more of these two
regions exit the solar disk.

M4.7 Flare-

:M4.7flare:

TEN spotted regions on the disk!

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 26 Issued at 0030Z on 26 Jan 2023
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 25 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3190 S14W89 124 0680 Dkc 08 03 Beta-Gamma
3192 N15W84 121 0070 Cao 06 03 Beta
3196 N19W41 077 0060 Cso 08 08 Beta
3197 N20W32 094 0030 Cro 05 03 Beta
3198 N25W24 059 0070 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
3199 N18W08 043 0040 Cao 07 06 Beta
3200 N21E22 013 0050 Cao 08 07 Beta
3201 N24E44 351 0070 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
3202 N13W47 079 0010 Cao 08 05 Beta
3203 N16E32 004 0010 Bxo 08 03 Beta

AR3190 Long Good-bye-

:AR3190_goodbye:
:3190_magneto:

M flares coming in hot!

and light brown filaments uplifting ...

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

[link to www.virtualtelescope.eu (secure)]

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Happy TGIF!


The Oracle's Cookie

I just noticed this person's opinion hosting the topic
of "solar flares."

Thread: Solar Flares are Harmless and being afraid of them is an Irrational Fear of The Aurora Borealis, Micro-Nova-Gamma-Ray-Bursts are not Harmless

Anyone wish to comment on agreement/disagreement and why?

If you have ever seen any of my threads or posts you
will already know my "take" on the "harmless" solar flare.




The Oracle's Cookie

It is NOT that I don't "give a dam" about this idea
...but if you DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK...you'll find out that
solar flares are, indeed, dangerous at SOME levels.

The chart below shows just a few of the confirmed physical
dangers of higher-level solar outbursts (say over KP 6-7) and
(*as well as emotional/mental side-effects) of these flares:



Gamma Ray burst are different from solar flares, but
that is something you also would need to look into.


The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 01/29/2023 02:06 AM