WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

I don't know for sure, but I think it may have something to do with the weather. Coronavirus is not flu, but it probably prefers cold weather. India is reasonably hot at this time of year, Africa even more, so as South America. Probably the countries with the warmest climate will have a stronger attack of the virus in the winter.

[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]

I don't know, the weather in Hong Kong ,and New Delhi are about the same.

You must not have seen my post last night on page 67, there are 7395 cases in the USA alone, it is spreading and doesn't care about race.

According with Chris Matterson there are another 27 cruise passengers in critical condition

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Last Edited by TIO JUAN on 02/21/2020 01:06 AM

Truth wins out.

Diamond Princess ship was a real eye opener, but it is not a sample that can be extrapolated to a model.

However, it can be applied to cluster outbreaks, such as the church cluster in Daegu, South Korea.

I expect 200+ cases in Daegu church alone to be confirmed by the end of the week (February 23rd), with dozens more that are indirectly related to the church.


South Korea should have around 300 confirmed cases by week's end.


If this is the case, expect all future clusters to follow a 20-25% infection rate.

The U.S. and Europe are in the same boat : they aren't testing people, but for other reasons, not lack of testing kits, like India and Africa.

The U.S. and Europe are buying time, essential time that is needed to prepare for the outbreaks, which are less than 2 weeks away.


The U.S. and European governments are avoiding testing, using the flu season and the 85%-ish of the CV19 cases to be mild or asymptomatic, to hide the real numbers, to postpone panic...in order to buy time.


But this is not going to fly for much longer.

UPDATE :


Italy report 2 new cases, 1 in critical condition, a 39 year old Italian.


60 people who had contact with the 39 year old Italian are placed under quarantine, and will be tested.


According to the infection rate on Diamond Princess and South Korean cult church, Italy should confirm roughly 20% of those 60 in quarantine, which is 12 cases. Could be less, like 9 or 10, but it will still be close to the 20% cluster infection rate.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/21/2020 06:01 AM

what do you think about this?

[link to www.repubblica.it (secure)]

and this is not the only case in these days

It's probably a death not related to virus.


Sometimes it happens even to very young people.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/21/2020 06:27 AM

thanks

anyway on the same day
[link to palermo.repubblica.it (secure)]

and two days ago
[link to roma.repubblica.it (secure)]

death cause unknown in all cases
i don't know what to think

Update: 6 cases confirmed now

9 confirmed now.


By the end of the week will be 50+ in Italy. It will follow the cluster growth in South Korea.


Most likely 6-8 more cases will be announced today, or 12, if the Genoa cluster is confirmed.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/21/2020 07:00 AM

I never post here but for this thread will make an exception. This is one of the most important threads ever to come out of this website and should be permapinned. Thank you for your work on this op. I would bet that it is also being followed by tptb as well. Doesn’t seem like it’s getting much traction here overall. My guess is also by about the first to second week of March it will be clear that this thing is getting serious.

Thank you.

This thread was perma pinned and it will be again, if it delivers.

Lady Jane Smith is following the thread, and she will pin it if she thinks it needs to be pinned.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/21/2020 07:05 AM

OP south korea exploded to 208 cases last night

China is reporting people who recovered are having another infection

Iran is ballooning at the same pace as south korea. They both had just over 100 cases mid day yesterday. I dont see any updates about iran yet though

Edit: 208 cases in sk, not 500

Last Edited by mr. jingles on 02/21/2020 12:26 PM

China's Next Move - Don't be surprised to see China close its stock market due to "technical difficulties" or some other bogus excuse and say it will reopen in 3-5 days. It will never reopen. At least until this virus gets under control........interesting times for certain. Stay safe.

[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]

Virus on its way to full blown pandemic in japan

Last Edited by mr. jingles on 02/21/2020 10:11 AM

Excellent Question!

I hope the OP provides an answer.

My old model was based on a scientific model that was, at the date, used by every single epidemiologist.

My old model was scrapped because the targeted 800-1,000 cases did not took place when I expected them to.


And no wonder, since the latest data, also from all epidemiologists, was adjusted...so I adjusted my model as well.


The old model critical period failed to deliver, but not by much. About 40%, or 10-12 days.


The new model is much more stronger, and it is optimistic, could fail, in the other way, by couple days. If it's a bigger margin, like 6 days (regardless if it's +6 or -6 days), I will adjust the model again.


But, as it is right now...the current model is holding strong, after almost 10 days, with almost no error.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/21/2020 10:26 AM

[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]

For op

So...
Number of non-chinese dead = 0 Nothingburger!

Wait!

Number of non-asian dead = 0 Nothingburger!

Wait!

Number of white people dead = 0 Nothingburger!

Wait!

Now they have to be white americans for it to be real. What's next? White americans from Montana?

At the point we have around 40,000 symptomatic cases in the US, most of us will know of it through our friends and contacts.

Posters here on GLP do not count. It has to be within 3 degrees of separation from yourself.

That is a warning to bug-in long-term.

GREAT WORK...KEEP IT UP!

500 cases in South Korea? What's the source? My sources tell 208 cases.

Yes, white americans from Montana, anglo-saxon descents and lutherans. Otherwise it's all fake! Hahah.

I dont think its failing.

They arent releasing correct or truthful numbers on the global scale.



So your model is probably correct.

If you take their numbers and keep adjusting your model to fit their fake numbers it will eventually become inaccurate (which is what they want).