WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

The Virus Heat Map Is Getting Busy - I am back from my unavoidable trip, a charter plane trip from Texas to Laughlin NV and return. “Clueless” is the only word I can describe the USA general populations knowledge and attitude toward this virus. No masks anywhere. I feel fine (healthy) right now but lets see in 14-28 days from now. I will update if I begin to feel bad. Now, below is the bad news. But I do have some good news if you want to make some money in the 2-3 weeks ahead.

The virus is unstoppable. No authoritative body took the necessary actions OP mentioned it would take to contain the virus. So now we have a global event that will affect 100% of each of us. Maybe not health wise but with 100% certainty if will affect our standard of living, local economy and how we will live moving forward in our lives.

I firmly stand on my belief that “where you live will determine how you weather the virus and how you will survive”. Certain topics being discussed will become irrelevant at stages of the virus progression worldwide. I feel we are at about a 3 on a progression scale of 10 where 10 is Mad Max or peak hard times (again where you live) before we can begin to go back down to a 0 or close to it. Moving up the scale will be much quicker than moving down (back to normal). Here is my rational……

I am not convinced healthy, under the age of 70, individuals that prep themselves and take necessary precautions will die from this virus. I may be wrong but I am not convinced it’s a death sentence if you catch this virus like Ebola sort of was. The effect of 100,000’s of people catching this virus and seeking medical attention at the same time and you or a loved one trying to “get in line for medical attention” at the same time………now that may and probably will result in your death. On a future post I will elaborate more on this topic but I would suggest YOU get a finger oxygen meter and a CPAP machine to do in house triage if needed. A CPAP machine will do much more than an oxygen concentrator machine. Again more on this in a future post.

We have watched the complete dismantling of the Chinese economy and social fabric. Absolutely astonishing, all in about 60-75 days and at the direction of the CCP. China is done and the CCP will continue to embarrass themselves to the world and dig an even deeper hole in the coming weeks as the Chinese people will revolt (silently) and human atrocities come into the light for the west to view. I really think the CCP is done. That scares me because of what they are capable of (sorry but more on this in a future post).

It will not happen this fast in the USA or EU. India (for certain), Africa and the ME it will happen as fast as it did in China. But again I have to reiterate it all depends greatly on where you live. The USA markets tank on Monday Feb 24 and Tuesday Feb 25 was no mistake. It was a clear signal, Trump and the government want the public to take this virus seriously. Instead of going on TV and announcing the seriousness of the virus and causing panic, they decided to let the market tell the wise (bankers, CEO’s, smart people, GLP’ers, etc.) The PPT (plunge protection team) easily could have made the losses 200 points each day. But this is serious and the market told the wise that. For the next two to three weeks the DOW and USA markets will swing 300-800 points either way PER DAY. Search YouTube for the phrase “Iron Condor Option Trades”. There are 100’s of videos on how to trade them. Major cash can be made trading these type of options very safely during the next 2-3 weeks. Place stops or be a screen queen and watch the markets to exit the loss side asap. The USA markets will be 100% news driven for the next 2-3 weeks. Fundamentals mean nothing right now. 10000000% news driven for next 2-3 weeks. After that get your cash and close your account otherwise you may never see your money.

I have much more to post (only in this thread) about this virus and primarily the economy and human behavior. And how human behavior will react to the drastic economic developments that we know are coming in the days ahead. Stay tuned, Be safe.

Last Edited by IdeaMan1624 on 02/25/2020 11:06 PM

IdeaMan,

I appreciate your posts. Although speculative, I think they are rationally based and something to bear in mind. I really haven't seen anything I would strongly disagree with. I look forward to more of your analysis.

Thanks

I looked through the scientific papers. No where does it test drinking MMS. Looks at tests on baboon blood cells, used to disinfect types of viruses such as aids, air disinfectant. NO HUMAN TESTS. Don’t drink it.

Alright by March 5-6, we'll know if this is REALLY a nothingburger but I might give until 3rd week of March as some said. I am really surprised that for a country likes us that is close to China and has MILLIONS of Chinese, only 3 cases and 1 death from the virus, and even if we can't verify the virus, mass deaths should've happened already and wouldn't go UNNOTICED.

Good post thanks.
Looking forward to your next one

My very thought

Rather would like to see OP post something, and spared this topic from the options gambling crap.

I agree. This belongs in the main thread.

From Jan 31 to the present, the cases outside China show an average of 1.124x daily increase.

Assuming the actual number is 1.14x, here's what we can expect:

- Social media severely censored or shutdown in the next two weeks. Blame the Russians.

- Grocery stores stripped bare in the next two weeks (already happening according to Trinity)

- First quarantine zones in the US in March, travel restrictions, soft medical martial law

- Walmart running out of Chinese made products

- 1% of the US is infected early April

- Hospitals become increasingly packed at the same time

- Full blown martial law in April / May

- Mass deaths start in May (virus deaths outstrip normal death rates)

- A majority of those who will die will do so in June / July timeframe.

that is also what i have been thinking kabayan.......

Highly unlikely.

The only SOMEWHAT reliable data from outside China come from South Korea and Italy.

The other countries are irrelevant, because they are NOT testing people extensively, hence, if you bunch them up in the projection, you will get totally skewed data to the very low end.

The daily increase is not 1.124x, nor 1.14x.

The daily increase in CONFIRMED cases from South Korea is around 1.3x.
The daily increase in Italy is around 1.4x.

The daily increase in Italy will go to 1.3x, once more cases are confirmed.


This is the daily increase you have to consider when trying to see when the U.S. will reach certain phases.

HOWEVER, this is the daily increase of CONFIRMED cases, which is naturally HIGHER, because the testing is done in the clusters, where the number of cases is naturally higher.

On the other side, the number of undetected clusters are much higher then the detected ones, hence, the undetected cases are also much higher.


My model, which is built on Los Alamos Lab study, which was peer reviewed, considers a doubling of INFECTED people (both detected and undetected) every 2.5 days, which gives a daily increase of 1.4x, which is most likely LOWER then the REAL daily increase in the number of INFECTED people.


Anyway, if you want to predict the evolution of the epidemic in the U.S....look at my model.


This is what the U.S. will have, on March 3rd :

N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000

For a better estimation, add 10% to the following numbers:

1,834,000 infected in the U.S., with 161k presenting symptoms.

The next numbers are, after adding 10% :

Aprox. 2 million infected in the U.S. with 177k presenting symptoms.

Out of the 177k presenting symptoms, 15% are serious and 5% are critical, a total of 20% that will need hospitalization in the ICU wards.

That is 35,400 people in the U.S., on March 3rd, that will need ICU beds.


The U.S. have about 100,000 ICU beds, about 70-80% of them being IN USE.

This leaves 20-30k ICU beds available for the coronavirus serious cases.

Now, the U.S. CAN and WILL up the numbers of ICU beds, but by mid-March, the U.S. ICU systems will be overloaded.


Lock-downs will start in the U.S. MUCH SOONER then you think, as early as first week in March.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/26/2020 09:07 AM

It´s amazing central banks can print trillions to help banks, hedge funds and corporations but where are they now that we actually need the money for something important? Socialism for the super rich and capitalism for the poor.

Thanks for your update.

Could you give an idea on UK numbers at the point.
Just a rough idea.

Great work btw

U.K have roughly 45,000 infected at this moment.

Today we hear in an hour tact of new infections and wider couple got it in Italy and they went out for carnevale..another infected person works as a kindergardener..and as I am writing this one more in potsdam..fuck it were done,good luck every1

Is it time to bring in the tomato plants yet?

What are you estimates for India right now?

Why no news?

I may have interpreted the data wrong, but yesterday someone posted a medical study of the virus that showed the optimum temperature for transmission was @ 48 degrees F and that at increasing T's the transmission dropped off.

The OP who provided the link had the opposite opinion of the article.

If my interpretation was correct, we may indeed see a steady slow down in cases here in the US in a month and then going forward as daily T's rise.

Well, you might be able to leave them out until Friday.

Maybe.

Way to many clusters and unreported cases, you can put them in now. The economic crash will multiplie the dimension of this bad bad pandemic.

It’s 80 degrees in Singapore and Thailand . Bahrain 66. Japan and Iran 41
Italy, Spain Wuhan 53. SK 37. I’m not thinking temps have any impact.

Oh snap!

Thanks for staying on this OP, the nothingburger army numbers are dwindling with only the most psychotic still in denial.

Using OFFICIAL numbers the severe case to Infected case ratio is 20+%!!!

We KNOW this will be higher in reality.

Hospitals across the world will shut down.