WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Highly unlikely.

The only SOMEWHAT reliable data from outside China come from South Korea and Italy.

The other countries are irrelevant, because they are NOT testing people extensively, hence, if you bunch them up in the projection, you will get totally skewed data to the very low end.

The daily increase is not 1.124x, nor 1.14x.

The daily increase in CONFIRMED cases from South Korea is around 1.3x.
The daily increase in Italy is around 1.4x.

The daily increase in Italy will go to 1.3x, once more cases are confirmed.


This is the daily increase you have to consider when trying to see when the U.S. will reach certain phases.

HOWEVER, this is the daily increase of CONFIRMED cases, which is naturally HIGHER, because the testing is done in the clusters, where the number of cases is naturally higher.

On the other side, the number of undetected clusters are much higher then the detected ones, hence, the undetected cases are also much higher.


My model, which is built on Los Alamos Lab study, which was peer reviewed, considers a doubling of INFECTED people (both detected and undetected) every 2.5 days, which gives a daily increase of 1.4x, which is most likely LOWER then the REAL daily increase in the number of INFECTED people.


Anyway, if you want to predict the evolution of the epidemic in the U.S....look at my model.


This is what the U.S. will have, on March 3rd :

N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000

For a better estimation, add 10% to the following numbers:

1,834,000 infected in the U.S., with 161k presenting symptoms.

The next numbers are, after adding 10% :

Aprox. 2 million infected in the U.S. with 177k presenting symptoms.

Out of the 177k presenting symptoms, 15% are serious and 5% are critical, a total of 20% that will need hospitalization in the ICU wards.

That is 35,400 people in the U.S., on March 3rd, that will need ICU beds.


The U.S. have about 100,000 ICU beds, about 70-80% of them being IN USE.

This leaves 20-30k ICU beds available for the coronavirus serious cases.

Now, the U.S. CAN and WILL up the numbers of ICU beds, but by mid-March, the U.S. ICU systems will be overloaded.


Lock-downs will start in the U.S. MUCH SOONER then you think, as early as first week in March.

My model, which is built on Los Alamos Lab study, which was peer reviewed, considers a doubling of INFECTED people (both detected and undetected) every 2.5 days, which gives a daily increase of 1.4x, which is most likely LOWER then the REAL daily increase in the number of INFECTED people.


Anyway, if you want to predict the evolution of the epidemic in the U.S....look at my model.


This is what the U.S. will have, on March 3rd :

N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000

For a better estimation, add 10% to the following numbers:
1,834,000 infected in the U.S., with 161k presenting symptoms.

The next numbers are, after adding 10% :
Aprox. 2 million infected in the U.S. with 177k presenting symptoms.

Out of the 177k presenting symptoms, 15% are serious and 5% are critical, a total of 20% that will need hospitalization in the ICU wards.

That is 35,400 people in the U.S., on March 3rd, that will need ICU beds.


The U.S. have about 100,000 ICU beds, about 70-80% of them being IN USE.

This leaves 20-30k ICU beds available for the coronavirus serious cases.

Now, the U.S. CAN and WILL up the numbers of ICU beds, but by mid-March, the U.S. ICU systems will be overloaded.

Lock-downs will start in the U.S. MUCH SOONER then you think, as early as first week in March.

Any estimates on how long until this epidemic is officially over, with all lockdowns and quarantines worldwide being dropped? A year? Two years? Many are storing food, but there is much talk of "months" worth. I can't believe that will be enough. I'm thinking two years worth at least.

China cases are declining and they've been on lockdown for a couple of weeks. Not sure why anyone thinks we would need 2 years worth???

As much as I love a good case of gloom, but this isn't going to be what ends civilization. China is the worst case scenario. They didn't know what was coming. Outside of possibly the middle east, it will not be any worse anywhere than it was in China.

This is all just an opinion. I'm not a virologist or a statistician

Let me get this straight, you think the USA will go from 53 cases to 180,000 in the next week? Not buying it.

I think this is a serious issue, but all of these "models" that I saw several weeks ago were forecasting that half the world would be infected by now. Look at China, bad situation but not under control. IMO, that is the worst case scenario for the non middle east countries

VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :

February 15th, 16:30 GMT
A NEW, ADJUSTED MODEL IS NOW POSTED.
THE FORMED MODEL was deleted.

Important notes :

1.Testing kits are not reliable
2.African countries, India, South and Central America countries, Eastern Europe countries, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, other SE Asian countries, all former Soviet republics, most Middle East either don't have testing kits, laboratories or simply are unable/unwilling to detect/confirm the COVID19 cases.
About 70% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 4.4 billion people, labeled as Category B countries.
3.Western Europe, Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia, New Zeeland, Singapore are most likely not confirming COVID19 cases to postpone the panic and prop the markets.
About 30% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 1.9 billion people, labeled as Category A countries.
4.Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are considered as a part of the countries and cities outside China.
5.Confirmed cases are still announced the day after the testing is done (24hr lag).

The model is based on a number of 2,000-2,500 infected people outside China, on January 28th, with an infection rate that is doubling every 2.5 days.

Los Alamos Labs study, peer reviewed, acknowledges an infection rate doubling every 2.4 days..

[link to arxiv.org (secure)]

The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread
widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2
to 2.7. (from the study).

The previous model was based on an R0 of 2.4-2.6, with a 70-80% contagion chance, which resulted in an infection rate that was doubling every 22 hrs.. I was using the data that was known at that point.

World population outside China, with their respective share of infected cases (higher for India and Africa) :
India : 1,400,000,000 - (22,29%) - infected share: 27%
Africa : 1,216,000,000 - (19.35%) - infected share: 23%
North America : 368,000,000 - 5,85% : infected share: 5%
Central America + South America : 608,000,000 - 9.68% - infected share: 9%
Europe : 747,000,000 - 11.90% - infected share: 9%
Asia (minus China and India) : 1,900,000 - 30.25% - infected share: 27%

January(infected people):
28th : 2,000-2,500
29th : 3,200-4,000
30th : 4,400-5,500
31st : 5,600-7,000

February(infected people):
1st : 6,800-8,500
2nd : 8,000-10,000
3rd : 12,800-16,000

4th : 17,600-22,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,000-1,250
Serious/critical cases (18%): 202.

5th : 22,400-28,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,600-2,000

6th : 27,200-34,000 (275 confirmed, 20 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,200-2,750

7th : 32,000-40,000 (327 confirmed, 61 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,800-3,500
Serious/critical cases (18%): 567.

8th : 51,200-64,000 (354 confirmed, 64 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 3,400-4,250

9th : 70,400-88,000 (379 confirmed, 70 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 4,000-5,000

10th : 89,600-112,000 (461 confirmed, 135 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 6,400-8,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 1,296.

11th : 108,800-136,000 (517 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 8,800-11,000 (+3,485 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 13,355 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,403.

12th : 128,000-160,000 (523 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 11,200-14,000

13th : 204,800-256,000 (586 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 13,600-17,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,754.

14th : 281,600-352,000 (608 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 16,000-20,000

15th : 358,400-448,000 (697 confirmed, 285 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 26,100-32,000

16th : 435,200-544,000 (781 confirmed, 355 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 35,200-44,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 7,128.

17th : 512,000-640,000(896 confirmed, 454 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 44,800-56,000

18th : 819,000-1,024,000(999 confirmed, 542 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 54,400-68,000 (+20,048 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 81,248 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 14,624.

19th : 1,126,000-1,408,000(1,116 confirmed, 621 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 64,000-80,000

20th : 1,433,000-1,792,000(1,198 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 102,400-128,000

21st : 1,740,000-2,176,000(1,379 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 140,800-176,000
N.America share (5%) : 87,000-108,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 7,040-8,800
Europe share (9%) : 156,000-195,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,672-15,840

22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000(1,695 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288.
N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected
Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200
Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 16,120-20,160

23rd : 3,277,000-4,096,000(2,052 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 217,600-272,000
N.America share (5%) : 163,850-204,800 infected
Presenting symptoms : 10,880-13,600
Europe share (9%) : 294,930-368,640 infected
Presenting symptoms : 19,500-24,500

24th : 4,506,000-5,632,000(2,429 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 256,000-320,000 (+128,953 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 421,453 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 75,861.
N.America share (5%) : 225,300-281,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,800-16,000
Europe share (9%) : 405,000-506,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 23,000-28,800

25th : 5,735,000-7,168,000(2,754 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 409,500-512,000


26th : 6,964,000-8,704,000(3,316 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 563,000-704,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 114,030



27th : 8,192,000-10,240,000
Presenting symptoms : 716,500-896,000
N.America share (5%) : 409,600-512,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 35,800-44,800
Europe share (9%) : 737,000-921,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 64,500-80,600

28th : 13,107,000-16,384,000
Presenting symptoms : 870,000-1,088,000


29th : 18,022,000-22,528,000
Presenting symptoms :1,024,000-1,280,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 207,360.


March(infected people):
1st : 22,937,000-28,672,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,638,500-2,048,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,146,800-1,433,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 81,925-102,000
Europe share (9%) : 2,064,000-2,580,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 147,400-184,300

2nd : 27,852,000-34,816,000
Presenting symptoms : 2,253,000-2,816,000 (+610,807 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 3,145,307 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 566,165.


3rd : 32,768,000-40,960,000
Presenting symptoms : 2,867,500-3,584,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000
Europe share (9%) : 2,949,000-3,686,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 258,000-322,000

In the last days, most officially confirmed cases were detected roughly 7 days after symptoms appeared. There were some exceptions, with 15-21 days incubation period, but most were in the 7 day range.

However, a significant number of infected people will be asymptomatic for 12-14 or more days, which is roughly 40-50% of the infected people, at a given date. I will round it up to 50%.

The remaining 50% will be staggered for an additional 7 days, but in order to avoid adding a ton of numbers for every day, I will add them up every 7 days.

Applying this to my model, the number of symptomatic people on February 5th is about half the number of infected people on January 28th.

I will add the serious and critical cases (18% of the total) every 3-4 days and the days with the added staggered cases.

The current model points to an overload of the healthcare systems in Europe and the U.S. to start around mid-March, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to start feeling the pressure at the end of February.

The former model was pointing that the healthcare systems would start feeling the pressure around mid-February for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, with Europe and U.S. by early March.

The former model was off by about 2 weeks.

The new model will have its critical period between March 2nd-March 8th., when it will be adjusted again, if new information regarding the R0, contagion chance and other related information come to light.
---------------------------------------------------------

Part of the USA COVID19 Plan I believe will be self quarantine for up to 30 days in targeted cities maybe even States. The Plan foundation will be to use telephysican communications. Phone, video and internet. Starting with phone. So self quarantine, if you feel bad, phone 211 (or some other speed number) and give vitals or details and they will determine if you should go in to a hospital and most likely tell you what hospital to go in to. This will prevent overflow at hospitals and potential cross contamination of the virus. I also believe this "Plan" will be rolled out pretty soon, first big cluster maybe in the USA. They (Trump) want to roll this Plan out ASAP so other countries follow this procedure.

You should have brought the tomato plants in before Amazon sold out of N95 masks and 3rd party sellers want hundreds of dollars for them.

where in the flying hell are you getting some of that info?

So, sky high r0, stealth incubation spreading up to 94 days, repeated re-infections/no immunity, testicle damagedestruction, sudden death via cytokine storms, vectoring through the smallest moisture droplets (exhalation not just sneezes/coughs), dry surface survival up to 9 days, fizzes into the air out of sewers, hospitalizes about 1 in 5 and kills 15% of those (and 60%+ of those who can't be hospitalized but need it), lasts up to 6 weeks once symptoms appear, continues shedding after your symptoms vanish, and more. Do I have all these details right?

If so, how long until everyone just starts calling it the georgia guidestones virus? [link to images2.imgbox.com (secure)]

Way too many people do not understand numbers, and have low reading skills.


For those with low IQ, a breakdown on what exactly words and numbers really mean, and I am addressing this to U.S. anons in my thread.

1.Confirmed cases.
Definition for dummies : confirmed cases are only the cases that are confirmed by the governments.
2.Infected people.
Definition for dummies : infected people are those that have the virus and virtually are not tested.


There is a tremendous difference between CONFIRMED and INFECTED PEOPLE. The U.S., for example, have 15 CONFIRMED cases (outside those repatriated).

To think that there are 15 INFECTED PEOPLE in the U.S. is sheer stupidity.


If the U.S would test EVERYONE in the country, the U.S. would have over 170,000 CONFIRMED CASES. At that point, considering that all people are tested, CONFIRMED = INFECTED.


Look at South Korea. They have tested over 40,000 people, and found 1,766 infected people, which are also confirmed cases.


The U.S., like any other country is SWIMMING in virus. It is all over the place.
There isn't no invisible shield protecting the U.S. Planes from China were stopped on FEBRUARY 2nd.
But until that point, for a month, 300k Chinese people landed in the U.S.
And hundreds thousands more from Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, etc.

The screening at the airport is completely useless. Over 60% of the infected people DO NOT HAVE SYMPTOMS.

The U.S. have the most INFECTED people, after China...but the U.S. IS NOT TESTING.

The U.S. tested 445 people in almost 45 days.



My model is not wildly overestimating...it is actually UNDERESTIMATING.


But, please continue to refuse a model build on a study by the best epidemiologists in the world, and peer reviewed by tens of other esteemed epidemiologists.

So, sky high r0, stealth incubation spreading up to 94 days, repeated re-infections/no immunity, testicle destruction, sudden death via cytokine storms, vectoring through the smallest moisture droplets (exhalation not just sneezes/coughs), dry surface survival up to 9 days, fizzes into the air out of sewers, hospitalizes about 1 in 5 and kills 15% of those (and 60%+ of those who can't be hospitalized but need it), lasts up to 6 weeks once symptoms appear, continues shedding after your symptoms vanish, and more. Do I have all these details right?

If so, how long until everyone just starts calling it the georgia guidestones virus? [link to images2.imgbox.com (secure)]

This is huge!!!
Confirmation that there is an "Italian strain of the VIRUS"

Coronavirus, isolated from the Sacco, the Italian strain
Researchers from the Sacco Hospital in Milan have isolated the Italian coronavirus strain. Professor Massimo Galli, director of the Institute of Biomedical Sciences, announced it to ANSA, who illustrated the results of the research work that has been going on continuously since last Sunday, coordinated by Professor Claudia Balotta. The team includes researchers Alessia Loi, Annalisa Bergna and Arianna Gabrieli, precarious, together with the Polish colleague Maciej Tarkowski and Professor Gianguglielmo Zehender.

[link to tg24.sky.it (secure)]

Way too many people do not understand numbers, and have low reading skills.


For those with low IQ, a breakdown on what exactly words and numbers really mean, and I am addressing this to U.S. anons in my thread.

1.Confirmed cases.
Definition for dummies : confirmed cases are only the cases that are confirmed by the governments.
2.Infected people.
Definition for dummies : infected people are those that have the virus and virtually are not tested.


There is a tremendous difference between CONFIRMED and INFECTED PEOPLE. The U.S., for example, have 15 CONFIRMED cases (outside those repatriated).

To think that there are 15 INFECTED PEOPLE in the U.S. is sheer stupidity.


If the U.S would test EVERYONE in the country, the U.S. would have over 170,000 CONFIRMED CASES. At that point, considering that all people are tested, CONFIRMED = INFECTED.


Look at South Korea. They have tested over 40,000 people, and found 1,766 infected people, which are also confirmed cases.


The U.S., like any other country is SWIMMING in virus. It is all over the place.
There isn't no invisible shield protecting the U.S. Planes from China were stopped on FEBRUARY 2nd.
But until that point, for a month, 300k Chinese people landed in the U.S.
And hundreds thousands more from Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, etc.

The screening at the airport is completely useless. Over 60% of the infected people DO NOT HAVE SYMPTOMS.

The U.S. have the most INFECTED people, after China...but the U.S. IS NOT TESTING.

The U.S. tested 445 people in almost 45 days.



My model is not wildly overestimating...it is actually UNDERESTIMATING.


But, please continue to refuse a model build on a study by the best epidemiologists in the world, and peer reviewed by tens of other esteemed epidemiologists.

Italy foreign minister says 0,1% of Italian population is infected. It means 60,000 people [link to www.adnkronos.com (secure)]

Hey OP it looks like either this politician is reading glp or your model is spot on. According to your model there are today 27feb 59 000 to 74 000 infected in italy.

Thank you for your reply.

I highly doubt he is reading this thread. But I am almost sure that Italy have now a model that is similar to mine, albeit it's for their own country.

Well, my model is built on very solid data. I didn't invented it, I just took the numbers from the Los Alamos Labs study, and worked them a little bit for certain zones, adding a 5% error on the low side, to keep the numbers low as much as possible.


According to my model, there should be between 737,000 and 921,000 infected people in Europe, as a continent, with a 750 million people total population.

Italy represents 8% of the Europe total, which means that there are between 59,000 and 74,000 infected in Italy, as of TODAY.


The Italian Foreign Minister said that 0.1% of Italy's population (60 mil.) is infected, which is 60,000 people.


My model was, again, confirmed to be very solid, and this time, from the horses mouth : the Italian FM.

[link to www.adnkronos.com (secure)]

Hey OP, I'm following your thread since the beginning and I truly believe in your model, but actually the FM said that the 0,1% of the population is quarantined, not infected

"For those with low IQ..." exactly

Italy changes virus count methods at UN agency's urging

Italy is changing how it reports coronavirus cases and who will get tested in ways that could lower the country's caseload even as an outbreak centered in northern Italy spreads in Europe

[link to abcnews.go.com (secure)]

Because they are considered infected...also, think about ALL the other zones that are NOT in quarantine, but have cases.


I know, trying to find silver linings to downplay the bad stuff is in the human nature, but make no mistake, we're all fucked.


Not only Italy.


All of us.

Yes, I agree. Another important news today, the biggest city outside the quarantined zone (Cremona) has no more beds for patients (81 cases, 42 pneumonia of which 16 severe)