Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............

1 - 1.5 million cases next Friday.

I'm hoping for less. As of March 6, the experts were predicting 1 million worldwide by April 6. But then more and more states and countries implemented quarantines, lockdowns, border closures, and other social distancing measures. Hopefully that slows the spread of the virus and we come in under the predicted numbers.

as of this morning, We're at 350,000 worldwide, 35,000 USA

[link to www.arcgis.com (secure)]

3/23/20 mid-day update:

372,000 worldwide, 41,000 USA

UPDATEL So, right now there are 330,000,000 Americans, approximately, and almost 43,000 have been diagnosed with coronavirus.

That means more than 1 in 10,000 Americans have coronavirus. Don't think that's a lot? Twenty three days ago on March 10, we had only 1,000 US cases.

So, we have 43 times as many cases as we did 23 days ago.

What would happen if we have 43 times as many cases as we do today, when 23 days from now we reach April 15?

We would have 1,849,000 cases in the US.

About 1 in 175 Americans would have it.

We can slow the trends by not getting close to other people for a while...

At this moment on 3/27/20, we are already at 375,000 worldwide, 43,000 USA, so your USA guess was too low.

However, you still win the guessing game if your guess is the closest to the actual numbers on 3/27/20, without going over the actual numbers.

So its better to guess under the actual amount than over the actual amount.

1/21/20: 6,000 worldwide, 1 USA

1/21/20: The first USA case of the coronavirus was identified in Washington.
[link to www.nejm.org (secure)]

1/21/20: As of January 29, at least 6,057 people have fallen ill. The vast majority of these patients (5,970) are in mainland China, and most (3,554) are concentrated in Hubei province, home to Wuhan.
[link to www.vox.com (secure)]

Fast forward 62 days: March 23, 2020

3/23/20: 378,000 worldwide, 43,000 USA.......

Fast forward 4 days: March 27,2020

GUESS: ________worldwide, _________USA........

756k world-wide 98k USA.

I think you're pretty close. My guess was 700,000 worldwide, 70,000 USA, but given USA totals have more than doubled in the last 3 days, I think I may have lowballed it.

guess......

By 10 pm CDT Friday, 90,000 US confirmed, 1300 dead. 3000- critical/serious

My guess is looking good. I figured it doubles every 3.5 days

Last Edited by President Nixon on 03/23/2020 10:52 PM

By this time (1100 pm EDT)


115,000 U.S. 2,000 Dead

44,000 USA cases now. Will it more than double by 3/27? Maybe so. Closest to correct number without going over wins.

Fair guess. We just jumped to 46,000 US confirmed.
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

My 70,000 guess may be too low. We may hit that by Wednesday.

i have been watching the mortality, not total cases.
i guess that the number of total dead world wide by friday, 27. march will be about 28,000+ (28,000-30,000)

my post on the exponential growth is here:
Thread: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!

and thr stats i'm using are here:
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

Sound plausible. We're at 16,000 deaths. In the last 60 days we went from a few a day to, on 3/19, over 1,000 per day, and up to 2,000 a day by 3/24.
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

There after, the doubling case rates will go down due to social isolation and the death rates will go down due to due to use of hydroxychloroquine.

As of yesterday, I was inclined to think your guess may have been too high. However, as I wake up and see as of this morning March 24:

3/24/20: 396,000 worldwide, 46,000 USA

17,000 dead worldwide, 587 USA

That sounds promising!

3/11/20: 118,000 worldwide, 700 USA
3/18/20: 207,000 worldwide, 7,000 USA
3/20/20: 275,000 worldwide, 20,000 USA
3/24/20: 399,000 worldwide, 48,000 USA
^
as of 11:45am EST (3/24 numbers will keep increasing all day).
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

Can YOU look at the data and form an educated GUESS as to the total numbers we will see on Friday?

3/27/20: ............???????????????????

My guess: 700,000 worldwide, 70,000 USA


GUESS: ________worldwide, _________USA........

Whoever's closest without going over wins. Contest ends 3/27/20 at 10:00 EST.

Whats the use when there is little testing? We have no idea how many people have cov19.

Well my initial guess was way too low, but if things slow down my updated guess still might pan out.

We don't know how many more there are, true. But even with the ones we know, we can forecast how deaths will increase.

In the last 60 days, we went from a few deaths a day, then on 3/19 we got 1,000 deaths a day for the first time. Today, on 3/24, we may get 2,000 deaths a day. We are able to extrapolate that it will not take long to reach 10,000 deaths a day. That is why social distancing is needed before the numbers are recognize by all as too high. At that point, its too late.

Sure looks like it's accelerating......