Lockdown policy originated from computer simulation by high school student

How did a temporary plan to preserve hospital capacity turn into two-to-three months of near-universal house arrest that ended up causing worker furloughs at 256 hospitals, a stoppage of international travel, a 40% job loss among people earning less than $40K per year, devastation of every economic sector, mass confusion and demoralization, a complete ignoring of all fundamental rights and liberties, not to mention the mass confiscation of private property with forced closures of millions of businesses?

Whatever the answer, it’s got to be a bizarre tale.

...

"Laura, with some guidance from her dad, devised a computer simulation that showed how people – family members, co-workers, students in schools, people in social situations – interact. What she discovered was that school kids come in contact with about 140 people a day, more than any other group. Based on that finding, her program showed that in a hypothetical town of 10,000 people, 5,000 would be infected during a pandemic if no measures were taken, but only 500 would be infected if the schools were closed."

Laura’s name appears on the foundational paper arguing for lockdowns and forced human separation. That paper is Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza (2006). It set out a model for forced separation and applied it with good results backwards in time to 1957. They conclude with a chilling call for what amounts to a totalitarian lockdown, all stated very matter-of-factly.

"Implementation of social distancing strategies is challenging. They likely must be imposed for the duration of the local epidemic and possibly until a strain-specific vaccine is developed and distributed. If compliance with the strategy is high over this period, an epidemic within a community can be averted. However, if neighboring communities do not also use these interventions, infected neighbors will continue to introduce influenza and prolong the local epidemic, albeit at a depressed level more easily accommodated by healthcare systems."

In other words, it was a high-school science experiment that eventually became law of the land, and through a circuitous route propelled not by science but politics.

[link to www.aier.org (secure)]

(Less than 50%)


[Post-publication note: You can read the 2007 CDC paper here. [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] It is arguable that this paper did not favor full lockdown. I’ve spoken to Rajeev Venkayya, MD, who regards the 2007 plan as more liberal, and assures me that they never envisioned this level of lockdown: “lockdowns and shelter-in-place were not part of the recommendations.” To my mind, fleshing out the full relationship between this 2007 document and current policy requires a separate article.]

yep.

sounds like NWO commie agent mommy or daddy wrote that paper to me?

HS science fair... won 3rd prize!

I lived in Urayasu for many years and we still have a property there. Just wondering how this relates to the subject of this thread cause I feel liked I missed something?

ytube recommended it to me , i recommended to you an ex citizen small world big problems!

And 1 hour ago i was shoveling the mud(construction site) that went onto street cause i had a property flooded in another town.

Simulation wont exist without sharing!

The only mitigation that proves to work is to fully lockdown for a couple of months to stop the spread / burn out any clusters and do contact tracing - not some soft optional lockdown where you can still go get your nuts waxed or your clit pierced. Its going to be an ongoing prob for countries that partially lock down/open/lock down etc. Fuck I am glad im in NZ, they fully locked down, things are returning to normal now minus international tourist scum. No cases for days now, all clusters fully traced and only 21 deaths. compared to Sweden with no lockdown, a country with twice NZs population that has recorded 3800 deaths and is still getting 500+ cases a day - facts do not lie.

When NZ started to lock down (early march), the US only had 146 cases - if the US fully locked down then, they would be when NZ is now as well.  Fucking amateurs.
 

The only mitigation that proves to work is to fully lockdown for a couple of months to stop the spread / burn out any clusters and do contact tracing - not some soft optional lockdown where you can still go get your nuts waxed or your clit pierced. Its going to be an ongoing prob for countries that partially lock down/open/lock down etc. Fuck I am glad im in NZ, they fully locked down, things are returning to normal now minus international tourist scum. No cases for days now, all clusters fully traced and only 21 deaths. compared to Sweden with no lockdown, a country with twice NZs population that has recorded 3800 deaths and is still getting 500+ cases a day - facts do not lie.

When NZ started to lock down (early march), the US only had 146 cases - if the US fully locked down then, they would be when NZ is now as well.  Fucking amateurs.
 

How did a temporary plan to preserve hospital capacity turn into two-to-three months of near-universal house arrest that ended up causing worker furloughs at 256 hospitals, a stoppage of international travel, a 40% job loss among people earning less than $40K per year, devastation of every economic sector, mass confusion and demoralization, a complete ignoring of all fundamental rights and liberties, not to mention the mass confiscation of private property with forced closures of millions of businesses?

Whatever the answer, it’s got to be a bizarre tale.

...

"Laura, with some guidance from her dad, devised a computer simulation that showed how people – family members, co-workers, students in schools, people in social situations – interact. What she discovered was that school kids come in contact with about 140 people a day, more than any other group. Based on that finding, her program showed that in a hypothetical town of 10,000 people, 5,000 would be infected during a pandemic if no measures were taken, but only 500 would be infected if the schools were closed."

Laura’s name appears on the foundational paper arguing for lockdowns and forced human separation. That paper is Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza (2006). It set out a model for forced separation and applied it with good results backwards in time to 1957. They conclude with a chilling call for what amounts to a totalitarian lockdown, all stated very matter-of-factly.

"Implementation of social distancing strategies is challenging. They likely must be imposed for the duration of the local epidemic and possibly until a strain-specific vaccine is developed and distributed. If compliance with the strategy is high over this period, an epidemic within a community can be averted. However, if neighboring communities do not also use these interventions, infected neighbors will continue to introduce influenza and prolong the local epidemic, albeit at a depressed level more easily accommodated by healthcare systems."

In other words, it was a high-school science experiment that eventually became law of the land, and through a circuitous route propelled not by science but politics.

[link to www.aier.org (secure)]

(Less than 50%)


[Post-publication note: You can read the 2007 CDC paper here. [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] It is arguable that this paper did not favor full lockdown. I’ve spoken to Rajeev Venkayya, MD, who regards the 2007 plan as more liberal, and assures me that they never envisioned this level of lockdown: “lockdowns and shelter-in-place were not part of the recommendations.” To my mind, fleshing out the full relationship between this 2007 document and current policy requires a separate article.]

New Zealand is an island in the middle of nowhere with less population than an average American city.

You are retarded.

So you are saying that lockdown does not work ? doesn't really matter what size - you could have just 2 people, one infected with CV and one not infected - keep them apart and there will ever only be one infection, the original. Your type of logic is exactly what TPTB want you to think, anything that doesn't fit your narrative is not accepted.

They did a lock down during the black plague.

If you want to go back more, then Passover