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| 05:36 AM | ||
| Users Online Now: 1,497 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 495,072 | |
| Pageviews Today: 635,852 | Threads Today: 188 | Posts Today: 2,232 |
| 05:36 AM | ||
It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big | |
Wildebeests are Fake Gnus
 User ID: 78108511  United States10/27/2020 09:10 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Zalinsky
(OP) User ID: 45481864 United States10/27/2020 09:11 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation |  I don't know as single democrat who switched to voting for Trump. I do know many Republicans who are voting Democrat first time in their life. That's a huge unknown and big risk for this analysis. If a lot of registered Republicans cross over, it blows up this analysis completely. The analysis also blows up if more Republicans are voting early and not waiting until Election Day. The critical bit of data in the analysis is the surveys showing Biden supporters voting early and by mail and Trump supporters not voting until Election Day. If that holds true, Biden should have had a bigger lead in Democratic party ballots submitted up to now. versus Republican party ballots submitted up to now. But again, I don't have any evidence of either of these things happening. And there is strong polling evidence of Trump getting well above 15% of the black and above 30% of the Latino vote. Personally, I think he is going to pull huge Latino numbers - many Latinos came here to escape socialism and they culturally prefer strong, powerful leaders. Both of those factors favor Trump enormously. Last Edited by Zalinsky on 10/27/2020 09:13 AM |
| dogman17
User ID: 22556144 United States10/27/2020 09:11 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77952124 United States10/27/2020 09:14 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is not my original analysis. I am piggybacking on the efforts of this guy: Quoting: Zalinsky It's a good video that looks at existing voting patterns and ballots returned and tries to extrapolate them to see what kind of turn out Trump needs on election day to win. He also has made it Google Sheets model public, so for nerds like me, you can download it and play with the numbers yourself. He references very interesting data here: [link to targetearly.targetsmart.com (secure)] The guy shows Biden winning in every battleground state at the moment, usually with estimated leads of 3-4%. This is an oversimplification, but for Trump to win, he would need to win Election Day by about that much in reverse. What's interesting is when you combine it with data like the following two links, which show a huge difference between parties on who will vote on Election Day. In PA, this Emerson survey showed 81% of Trump voters will vote on Election Day, while only 36% plan of Biden voters plan to vote on Election Day. [link to www.wane.com (secure)] In FL, this Emerson survey showed 53% of Trump voters will vote on Election Day, while only 17% plan of Biden voters plan to vote on Election Day. [link to emersonpolling.reportablenews.com (secure)] Now, there are some huge assumptions here: Unaffiliated Voters will split 50/50 People will actually vote early/late as declared People will more or less vote their declared party The TargetSmart estimates are good But if those assumptions are sound, my numbers show the following: Turnout is huge. Trump is going to crush Biden. My FL numbers show a stupid blowout, greater than 55% to 45%. There is so much variability and so many assumptions, that it's not worth focusing on the exact numbers, but the fact is that Biden should have much bigger lead in Democratic submitted ballots than he has now if Election Day is really a dominant Trump day. I have similar results even in leaning blue states like NV and NH. Biden just doesn't have much of a lead there at the moment. If this is true, states like NM might even be in play. 5 stars z man |
| DuckNCover
User ID: 36300319 United States10/27/2020 09:16 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The only people voting for Biden are traitors, Marxists, or Satanic baby killers wanting more dead for the demon Moloch. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69575054 Just more delusional fantasies. Let me guess, Q told you, lol. A huge swath of normal, god fearing, hardworking Americans are fed up with trump's self centered schtick. Sure the lowest of the low IQ tout trump like he is a nascar driver. But that is a minuscule amount of votes. I mean Hillary very nearly won. Since then trump had his chance and blew it. Now everyone who voted Hillary will vote Harris. And a lot of former trump votes will now go to Harris. It has worn thin, and these people will sweep Harris into the presidency. I doubt that... Trump is the chosen one. He has God on his side. Democrats are devil worshipers and baby killers. They get by on lies and cheating, just like the Evil One... Just like Jesus performed a miracle in turning water into wine, watch as many voters turn to re-elect Trump... |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77582103  Bulgaria10/27/2020 09:16 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77137727 United States10/27/2020 09:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The only people voting for Biden are traitors, Marxists, or Satanic baby killers wanting more dead for the demon Moloch. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69575054 Just more delusional fantasies. Let me guess, Q told you, lol. A huge swath of normal, god fearing, hardworking Americans are fed up with trump's self centered schtick. Sure the lowest of the low IQ tout trump like he is a nascar driver. But that is a minuscule amount of votes. I mean Hillary very nearly won. Since then trump had his chance and blew it. Now everyone who voted Hillary will vote Harris. And a lot of former trump votes will now go to Harris. It has worn thin, and these people will sweep Harris into the presidency. I doubt that... Trump is the chosen one. He has God on his side. Democrats are devil worshipers and baby killers. They get by on lies and cheating, just like the Evil One... Just like Jesus performed a miracle in turning water into wine, watch as many voters turn to re-elect Trump... I will be looking forward to visiting GLP starting next Wednesday. Once President Harris is elected, perhaps the rump tards will begin disappearing and this site can revert to a conspiracy forum. Praying hard for both! God bless all true blue Patriots! |
| DuckNCover
User ID: 36300319 United States10/27/2020 09:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I don't know as single democrat who switched to voting for Trump. I do know many Republicans who are voting Democrat first time in their life. It's going to be a BidenBlowout Party! Or a Civil War the likes that makes the first one look like a Birthday Party... |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77582103 Bulgaria10/27/2020 09:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The only people voting for Biden are traitors, Marxists, or Satanic baby killers wanting more dead for the demon Moloch. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69575054 Just more delusional fantasies. Let me guess, Q told you, lol. A huge swath of normal, god fearing, hardworking Americans are fed up with trump's self centered schtick. Sure the lowest of the low IQ tout trump like he is a nascar driver. But that is a minuscule amount of votes. I mean Hillary very nearly won. Since then trump had his chance and blew it. Now everyone who voted Hillary will vote Harris. And a lot of former trump votes will now go to Harris. It has worn thin, and these people will sweep Harris into the presidency. I doubt that... Trump is the chosen one. He has God on his side. Democrats are devil worshipers and baby killers. They get by on lies and cheating, just like the Evil One... Just like Jesus performed a miracle in turning water into wine, watch as many voters turn to re-elect Trump... I will be looking forward to visiting GLP starting next Wednesday. Once President Harris is elected, perhaps the rump tards will begin disappearing and this site can revert to a conspiracy forum. Praying hard for both! God bless all true blue Patriots! I do feel bad, a little, because trumptard suicide rates will be sky high. [link to twitter.com (secure)] |
| Pukeko
User ID: 79547809 10/27/2020 09:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I was last registered as a Dem Currently independent I didn't vote in the last presidential election as I didn't live in the US I have not voted early yet because I work And the polls aren't open late yet Late this week they will be open after work so I will vote then Obviously I am not voting Biden |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77582103 Bulgaria10/27/2020 09:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77582103 Bulgaria10/27/2020 09:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I was last registered as a Dem Quoting: Pukeko Currently independent I didn't vote in the last presidential election as I didn't live in the US I have not voted early yet because I work And the polls aren't open late yet Late this week they will be open after work so I will vote then Obviously I am not voting Biden You could just mail it in. Rumptards shouldn't be allowed to vote.  |
| DuckNCover
User ID: 36300319 United States10/27/2020 09:25 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Too many people are focused on the Candidate... The Dems say orange man bad... The Reps say Biden is slow and not fit for President... People need to look at the platforms of both parties... Do you want Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. or Do you want Socialism leading to Government Control turning us into Argentina... It's really that simple... |
| Zalinsky
(OP) User ID: 45481864 United States10/27/2020 09:25 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I was last registered as a Dem Quoting: Pukeko Currently independent I didn't vote in the last presidential election as I didn't live in the US I have not voted early yet because I work And the polls aren't open late yet Late this week they will be open after work so I will vote then Obviously I am not voting Biden You could just mail it in. Rumptards shouldn't be allowed to vote. Don't you have some local politics to discuss in your forgettable and irrelevant European backwater? |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79048018 United States10/27/2020 09:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77582103 Bulgaria10/27/2020 09:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Too many people are focused on the Candidate... Quoting: DuckNCover The Dems say orange man bad... The Reps say Biden is slow and not fit for President... People need to look at the platforms of both parties... Do you want Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. or Do you want Socialism leading to Government Control turning us into Argentina... It's really that simple... We want free medical care and freedom to do whatever our lives bring us. We don't want to worry about how to pay the rent or ending up homeless. Mostly, we're tired of working for the white man. Socialism for the win! |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 69575054 United States10/27/2020 09:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| DuckNCover
User ID: 36300319 United States10/27/2020 09:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Too many people are focused on the Candidate... Quoting: DuckNCover The Dems say orange man bad... The Reps say Biden is slow and not fit for President... People need to look at the platforms of both parties... Do you want Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. or Do you want Socialism leading to Government Control turning us into Argentina... It's really that simple... We want free medical care and freedom to do whatever our lives bring us. We don't want to worry about how to pay the rent or ending up homeless. Mostly, we're tired of working for the white man. Socialism for the win! Socialism/Communism means you work for the Government who supplies you with everything. In turn you lose your Freedom. You become a minion... |
| Pukeko
User ID: 79547809 10/27/2020 09:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | And under socialism you get the lowest quality healthcare possible No tests No treatments Just a visit with a doctor who tells you that you are probably fine Until you are dead of cancer or blind These people are dumb |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77691073 United States10/27/2020 09:38 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So you’re saying you don’t believe this totally believable , can’t possibly be wrong poll that has Biden up by 4x Hillary’s lead at this same point in 2016? [link to news.yahoo.com (secure)] I mean sure Biden can’t get 12 people to show up for a free Bon Jovi concert, but it’s reasonable to believe he’s up by 12 percentage points right? |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78086220 United States10/27/2020 09:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 1. Jeff Bezos, increase of 121 billion since election 2. Elon Musk 79 bill since election 3. Steve Ballmer, microsoft stock 4. Mark Zuckerberg, 44 bill. Since election 5. Dan Gilbert,quicken loans 6. Bill Gates,35 billion since election 7. 8. 9. The walton's 10. Larry Ellison,oracle |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76825730 United States10/27/2020 09:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Didn't you weirdos say Hunter Biden died and Joe Biden stopped his campaign? What happened? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79547392 Biden DID stop campaigning No, he didn't! Yesterday he was in suburban Philadelphia and today he's in Georgia. President OBAMA is in Fla tomorrow and Harris in Texas Friday. Biden's going to the mid West. How many people showed up? And no, you cannot include the pumpkins in that count. |
| Jake
User ID: 77849624 United States10/27/2020 09:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Biden is doing much better than I thought, republicans you better come out and vote in record numbers or trump is fucked Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance! Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes." |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79221027  United Kingdom10/27/2020 09:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Too many people are focused on the Candidate... Quoting: DuckNCover The Dems say orange man bad... The Reps say Biden is slow and not fit for President... People need to look at the platforms of both parties... Do you want Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. or Do you want Socialism leading to Government Control turning us into Argentina... It's really that simple... We want free medical care and freedom to do whatever our lives bring us. We don't want to worry about how to pay the rent or ending up homeless. Mostly, we're tired of working for the white man. Socialism for the win! Now that would be nice....Dem voters hanging the people they voted for when they realise what socialism brings....oh the joy of watching screaming men in suits pleading for their life....Looking forward to watching a bit of....Strictly Come Spandau Ballet. |
| DuckNCover
User ID: 36300319 United States10/27/2020 09:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So you’re saying you don’t believe this totally believable , can’t possibly be wrong poll that has Biden up by 4x Hillary’s lead at this same point in 2016? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77691073 [link to news.yahoo.com (secure)] I mean sure Biden can’t get 12 people to show up for a free Bon Jovi concert, but it’s reasonable to believe he’s up by 12 percentage points right? I don't see it... You really think the Dem's are going to get the Bernie voters to vote. I think they will stay home and not participate... The Dems should have put Bernie instead of Joe in. It would have been a great debate to watch... |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77016676 United States10/27/2020 09:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| DuckNCover
User ID: 36300319 United States10/27/2020 09:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Who got richer during trump: top 10 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78086220 1. Jeff Bezos, increase of 121 billion since election 2. Elon Musk 79 bill since election 3. Steve Ballmer, microsoft stock 4. Mark Zuckerberg, 44 bill. Since election 5. Dan Gilbert,quicken loans 6. Bill Gates,35 billion since election 7. 8. 9. The walton's 10. Larry Ellison,oracle I'm a common working man. I've doubled my 401K plan under Trump. If Trump gets re-elected, I should be able to retire early. If Biden wins, I will have to work at least 2 years past my full retirement date... |
| Cartel™
User ID: 79524385  Canada10/27/2020 09:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| judahbenhuer
User ID: 75047855 United States10/27/2020 09:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A 2020 silent majority so grand that it can not be captured in one photograph. “My religious belief teaches me to feel as safe in battle as in bed. God has fixed the time for my death. I do not concern myself about that, but to be always ready, no matter when it may overtake me. That is the way all men should live, and then all would be equally brave.” -Stonewall Jackson "The Bible that is falling apart usually belongs to a person who is not." - Charles Spurgeon “I apprehend no danger to our country from a foreign foe . . . Our destruction, should it come at all, will be from another quarter. From the inattention of the people to the concerns of their government, from their carelessness and negligence, I must confess that I do apprehend some danger. I fear that they may place too implicit a confidence in their public servants, and fail properly to scrutinize their conduct; that in this way they may be made the dupes of designing men, and become the instruments of their own undoing. Make them intelligent, and they will be vigilant; give them the means of detecting the wrong, and they will apply the remedy.” “If we abide by the principles taught in the Bible, our country will go on prospering and to prosper; but if we and our posterity neglect its instructions and authority, no man can tell how sudden a catastrophe may overwhelm us and bury all our glory in profound obscurity.” -Daniel Webster |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77192746 United States10/27/2020 09:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
