World Really on Fire

Ukrainian Soldier Shows His Country's Destroyed Armored Personnel Carrier

Hundreds of Russian Iskander Rocket Launchers Coming

The problem with the slow-grind theory or "time is on Russia's favor, they can take as long as they want" is, for it to work, Putin would have to assume that US and NATO would sit on their asses and do fucking nothing.

In other words, this assumption severely underestimates the west's resolve and capability to wreak havoc, which it is gladly doing so, coupled with Ukraine's willingness to sacrifice thousands of troops in kamikaze attacks. Putin didn't anticipated that, didn't prepare contingencies for alternate outcomes and now Russia is having to adjust its strategy haphazardly, in reaction to NATO's initiative.

From the article I linked in my previous post:

Yet, despite the growing involvement of US/NATO, the Kremlin holds on to its limited operation, dangerous in its failure and miscalculation, as Russia’s dilly-dallying has convinced the West that the Kremlin has no stomach for real conflict, encouraging Washington to take another step toward sending troops by forming a “Ukraine Command".

[link to www.paulcraigroberts.org (secure)]

This is a great point. If true, once the west slows down or stops giving Ukraine weapons he would make his move. With the deteriorating economies of the west, it will probably take a very long time to replenish those weapons, if that is even possible. Once it’s over, assuming no nukes fly, Putin will have demilitarized the west to a certain degree and dethroned them of being top dog of the global economic hierarchy.

When I said that Putin wanted this to be a grind, I wasn't just talking about a grind of the Ukrainian forces. I meant to say that Putin was playing for NWO and did this war, in such a way, that would develop into a massive grind of lives on both sides.
This could very well be the case, if we have a more critical look at his actions (more like inaction) in Syria, Armenia, Turkey and other parts of the world.
All this US and NATO escalation is a direct result of His inaction.
Everyone messed with Russia in the last few years. USA, Britain, Israel, EU, Poland, Turkey, Azerbaijan, The Baltics.... It's a free for all. The whole world is pissing on Russia. Maybe that's his job. To just stay there and take it, in order to have no other option but nuke everyone.
I wouldn't be surprised that to be his strategy, or purpose in all this mess.

Last Edited by News_hungry on 10/01/2022 10:19 PM

Yes he’s walking a fine line indeed. Trying to drain the west of equipment without drawing them into direct conflict and dealing with their behind the scenes operational control. My thoughts are the west doesn’t want a army vs army war like WW2, they want a reason to launch nukes. Putin also has China and India’s backing so I’m sure that makes him willing to take elevated risks.

Barrel on a Polish built, 155mm, Krab, self propelled howitzer, ruptured because of the high wear.

https://imgur.com/jBEbCHu

These Self propelled howitzer didn't spend too much time on the battlefield and they are already blowing up.

The Ukrainians are complaining about the barrel life on the German PzH 2000 as well.

Interesting commentary on the current situation, which touches on Ukraine's recent "counteroffensive":

"The move to hold referenda and eventually annex the southeastern rim was accompanied with Putin’s long-awaited announcement of a 'partial mobilization'. Ostensibly, the initial order calls up just 300,000 men with previous military experience, but the door is left upon for further surges at the discretion of the president’s office. Implicitly, Putin can now ramp up the mobilization as he sees fit without needing to make further announcements or sign more paperwork. This is similar to American Lend-Lease or the 'Authorization for Use of Military Force' in America, where the door is opened once and the President is then free to move at will without even informing the public.

It was increasingly clear that Russia needed to raise its force deployment. Ukraine’s successful drive to the Oskil River was made possible by Russian economy of force. The Russian army had completely hollowed out Kharkiv Oblast, leaving only a thin screening force of national guardsmen and LNR militia. In places where the Russian Army has chosen to deploy sizeable regular formations, the results have been disastrous for Ukraine - the infamous Kherson Counteroffensive turned into a shooting gallery for Russian artillery, with the Ukrainian Army haplessly funneling men into a hopeless bridgehead at Andriivka.

So far in this war, Ukraine has achieved two big successes retaking territory: first in the spring, around Kiev, and now the late summer recapture of Kharkov Oblast. In both cases, the Russians had preemptively hollowed out the sector. We have yet to see a successful Ukrainian offensive against the Russian Army in a defensive posture. The obvious solution, therefore, is to raise the force deployment so that it is no longer necessary to hollow out sections of the front.

The initial surge of 300,000 men is being a bit muddled. Not all of the men being called up will be sent to Ukraine. Many will remain in Russia on garrison duty so that existing ready formations can be rotated to Ukraine. Therefore, it is likely that we will see more Russian units arriving in theater much sooner than expected. Additionally, many of the units originally committed to Ukraine have been off the front for refitting and resting. The scale and pace of Russia’s new force generation is likely to shock people. On the whole, the timing of Russia’s manpower surge coincides with the depletion of Ukrainian capabilities.

Ukraine spent the summer sending its 2nd tier conscripts to the front in the Donbas as it lovingly collected NATO-donated weapons and trained units in the rear. With generous NATO help, Ukraine was able to accumulate forces for two full scale offensives - one in Kherson (which failed spectacularly) and one in Kharkov (which succeeded in pushing past the Russian screening force and reaching the Oskil). Much of that carefully accumulated fighting power is now gone or degraded. Rumors circulated of a third offensive towards Melitipol, but Ukraine does not seem to have the combat power to achieve this, and strong Russian forces are in the region behind prepared defensive lines.

On the whole, therefore, Ukraine’s window for offensive operations has closed, and what remains is closing quickly. The last zone of intense Ukrainian operations is around Lyman, where aggressive Ukrainian attacks have so far failed to either storm or encircle the town. It is still possible that they take Lyman and consolidate control of Kupyansk, but this would likely represent the culmination of Ukrainian offensive capability. For now, the area around Lyman is a killing zone that exposes attacking Ukrainian troops to Russian air and ground fires.

The large scale view of force ratios is as follows:

Ukraine has spent much of the combat power that they accumulated with NATO help during the summer, and will have an urgent need to reduce combat intensity for refitting and rearming at precisely the same time that Russian combat power in the theater begins to surge.

Simultaneously, NATO’s ability to arm Ukraine is on the verge of exhaustion.

One of the more fascinating aspects of the war in Ukraine is the extent to which Russia has contrived to attrit NATO military hardware without fighting a direct war with NATO forces. In a previous analysis I referred to Ukraine as a vampiric force which has reversed the logic of the proxy war; it’s a black hole sucking in NATO gear for destruction.

There are now very limited stockpiles to draw from to continue to arm Ukraine. Military Watch Magazine noted that NATO has drained the old Warsaw Pact tank park, leaving them bereft of Soviet tanks to donate to Ukraine. Once these reservoirs are fully tapped, the only option will be giving Ukraine western tank models. This, however, is much harder than it sounds, because it would require not only extensive training of tank crews, but also an entirely different selection of ammunition, spare parts, and repair facilities.

Tanks are not the only problem, however. Ukraine is now staring down the barrel (heh heh) of a serious shortage of conventional tube artillery. Earlier in the summer, the United States donated 155mm howitzers, but with stockpiles of both guns and shells dwindling, they’ve recently been forced to turn to lower caliber towed trash. After the announcement of yet another aid tranche on September 28th, the USA has now put together five consecutive packages which do not contain any conventional 155mm shells. Shells for Ukraine’s Soviet vintage artillery were running low as early as June.

In effect, the effort to keep Ukraine’s artillery arm functioning has gone through a few phases. In the first phase, Warsaw Pact stockpiles of Soviet shells were drained to supply Ukraine’s existing guns. In the second phase, Ukraine was given mid-level western capabilities, especially the 155mm howitzer. Now that 155mm shells are running low, Ukraine has to make do with 105mm guns which are badly outranged by Russian howitzers and will be, in a word, doomed in any kind of counterbattery action.

As a substitute for adequate tube artillery, the latest aid package does include 18 more of the internet’s favorite meme weapon - the HIMARS Multiple Launch Rocket System. What is not explicitly mentioned in the press release is that the HIMARS systems don’t exist in current US inventories and will have to be built, and are thus unlikely to arrive in Ukraine for several years.

The increasing difficulties in arming Ukraine coincide with the rapid closing of Ukraine’s window of operational opportunity. The forces accumulated over the summer are degraded and fought out, and every subsequent rebuild of the Ukrainian first tier forces will become harder as manpower is destroyed and NATO arsenals are depleted. This depletion comes precisely as Russian force generation is surging, foretelling the Winter of Yuri...." [link to bigserge.substack.com (secure)]

Lyman fell during the day today. The Russian reserves that pushed into the pocket yesterday were used to slow down the Ukrainian advance, so the troops in Lyman could retreat.
Most of the troops managed to escape, but a lot of equipment and vehicles were destroyed during the retreat.

This map is from 3:00 PM local time.

https://imgur.com/j2SIeWF

Some drone footage of the Kherson offensive. Some accurate artillery rounds on target mixed in with the usual, must be Krasnopol.

Last Edited by SwampCreature on 10/02/2022 12:32 AM

The end result will be exactly that. His inaction is an invitation for more provocations, emboldening Russia's enemies until indeed there will be no alternative but to nuke everybody.

The nord stream destruction is just an example of that. If indeed the US is responsible for that, it just shows how far this will go until Russia snaps. I personally believe Putin has Russia and his people's best interest in mind, and he is as anti-NWO as humanly possible, but I'm not sure he has what it takes to make the decisive actions that are and will be necessary very soon. And if he does not, he probably will be replaced by hardliners who will take Russia in that direction, one way or another. The rubicon was crossed already, there's no going back.




Yes, that will be the end result for sure, regardless if he is planning for that or not. If he doesn't want this, so far he is doing the exact opposite of what he should be doing to avoid that outcome.

I don't know. The way he acted in Syria is very suspect. The Russians had very capable surface to air weapons in Syria, Throughout the war, everyone bombed the Syrians and Russia never fired a missile against any enemy aircraft. They just sat there and watched Israel bomb Syria every two weeks, for years, without firing a shot. Only the Syrian SAM's fired. The Russians only shot at ISIS drones.

I suspect that the reason Russia went to Syria was to prevent Turkey from taking over and getting close to Israel. They went into Syria to protect Israel from the Turks.

Russia's sole interest in Syria was to prevent the US to overtake the country and construct a gas pipeline connecting Qatar to Europe, bypassing Russia.

This article from 2015 gives a good summary:

[link to www.news.com.au (secure)]

So Russia made the bare-minimum to keep Assad in power and prevent US/Israel overtaking Syria, but without sparking a bigger conflict with those countries there, hence why it didn't shot down any Israeli plane etc.

Of course, Putin tolerated a lot of provocations for that, he was criticized by how he conducted the intervention there but in the end things worked out.

The syria template was used for the ukraine SMO. But Putin didn't seemed to grasp that the assumptions he made for his calculations, would become null and void from the moment he invaded Ukraine.

He really thought nobody would interfere and he would get away with a minimalist approach in Ukraine. Not understanding back then that by invading ukraine he would have to confront NATO NOW not 10 or 20 years in the future, that he should've went ALL IN, not pussy-footing as he did, not being properly prepared to deal with NATO right fucking NOW, it was a monstrous blunder.

Now it appears they are correcting course, belatedly, and if this time he doesn't make the right decisions, he will be replaced and someone else will lead Russia during the imminent war time period the world is about to enter. Its beyond his control now.

The thing with Putin is that he is obsessed with negotiations, legalisms and deals and none of that is available anymore to solve the current paradigm. He is no Stallin, he doesn't seem to have the mental structure to deal with what Russia is suffering now, and I suspect he will make more mistakes.

With this mobilization thing....lets see how LONG it will take for him to allow the decision-centers in Kieve to be wiped-out. It should've been from day 1. He is very stubborn. Watch how he will keep dragging his fucking feet even after the mobilization, sticking with his restrained approach until things derail so hard that either himself will snap and radically change course, or he will be a goner.

Ukraine won the battle of LYMAN (DECISIVE)

So on next Monday or Tuesday the 4 new regions will be approved by the duma and thats when they take is gloves off is that right?

War doesn't wait for formalities. The treaties were signed. They had a big celebration in Red Square. The Duma vote is a foregone conclusion. The hardliners and leaders for the guys doing the fighting - Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Group CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin are calling for immediate changes in leadership at the top. People in the DPR are not satisfied with the way the war has been going either.

Even Igor "Strelkov" Girkin is making waves on the social media circuit.

Last Edited by Pickle Lake on 10/02/2022 09:29 AM

Maybe in the beginning that was the American plan, but after Turkey took over the rebellion, both USA and Russia intervened to block the Turks from taking Syria and from getting to the Israeli border.
Look at a recent Syrian war map. USA took the east of Syria and Turkey took the north. If the pipeline theory was true, they could pull the pipe right now, straight through the US controlled territory and into Turkey and across into Mediterranean sea.

US and Russia intervened in Syria to help Israel, because Erdogan promised he'll liberate Palestine if he gets to the Lebanese border.
Putin and Trump were afraid Erdogan would unite the Muslims against Israel, so hey intervened to block his way south, to Israel.

Last Edited by News_hungry on 10/02/2022 10:04 AM

Lyman captured by Ukraine: UPDATE + [ Ukraine SITREP ] Day 220 (1/10): Kherson Offensive relaunched!

Ukrainian Armored Vehicles Hit by Russian Forces

Wounded Russian Soldiers. Ukrainian Soldiers Still Dropped Grenades

Russians doing a mystery thing. Probably disposing of a stash of Ukrainian sea mines using explosive rope from a deminer

BERLIN, October 2 - RIA Novosti. A demonstration against the German government's energy policy and anti-Russian sanctions is taking place in the city of Zwickau in the German state of Saxony.
The demonstration was organized by Freie Sachsen and Volksstimme Bürgerbündnis Zwickau (Zwickau People's Voice), both of which are considered right-wing extremists. In the announcement of the action, they called for a change of the cabinet and for a review of sanctions against Russia.
A similar demonstration had already taken place in Zwickau last week. Then several thousand people took to the streets.
After the start of the Russian military special operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, the West increased the sanctions pressure on Moscow. The European Union has already adopted seven packages of restrictions, including, among others, coal and oil embargoes. All this has caused problems for the Western countries themselves, provoking a sharp rise in inflation and food and gasoline prices.
For example, Germany is facing an energy crisis because of higher fuel prices and cuts in Russian gas supplies. The authorities were forced to introduce serious measures to save energy, and the population was urged to wash less often and reduce the temperature in the apartments. Due to the rise in fuel prices, especially gas, German industry has largely lost its competitive advantage, which has also affected other areas of the most powerful economy of the European Union. [link to ria.ru (secure)]

Ukrainian Troops Sentenced To Their Own After Getting Drunk on Front Lines

Ukrainian mobilized women

Ukraine was hit hard in Artyomovosk, 6 military command posts were destroyed by Russian missiles

2 M777s hit by artillery

That mistery is solved.
Sea mines and the Russians used a tank to fire at it, then presented it as "the destruction of an Ukraine ammunition dump with a single shot form a tank".

https://twitter.com/_/status/1576191414165463041

Don't shit where you eat Xiden?

NATO Rejects Ukraine Membership Bid; UK Tory Government Heading to Oblivion