Hurricane Season 2023

The Low with No Name..

https://twitter.com/_/status/1661400469917294592

I think Andy poo-poo'd any disturbance in this general region a few days ago. It's not just politics that gets a little wild & crazy these days lol.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1573304679915814912

Today.. more of a rain-maker disturbance perhaps and why NHC dropped it??

https://twitter.com/_/status/1661338507988615169

Sooo Dudes, I'm from Puerto Rico you know, Guam is a Territory of the USA and a Far one in the Pacific Ocean!

With the Default nearing, How Much Help would you think they are going to get!

At that moment the Government said that PR is far away, and help is more difficult to Delivered! What Would happen with Guam and a Possible future event in Hawaii?

Guam Got Destroy with Hurricane Mawar!

[link to www.military.com (secure)]

Crazy shit, Just Like Us!

The yellow X is baack. Should it stay or should it go?

https://imgur.com/FSHMQ6z

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Super Typhoon Mawar is headed towards the Philippines and it's currently a monster of a cyclone.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1661892699350355968

[link to www.cnnphilippines.com (secure)]

https://twitter.com/_/status/1661886559501549569

Last Edited by Humanitarianlike on 05/25/2023 08:45 PM

Primary focus here is Atlantic Hurricane season.

That said to get a more accurate picture of where Earth is with regards to oceanic cyclones we'll be looking at tropical cyclones globally this year.

There's a lot going on with La Nina's and El Nino's, heat domes, sporadic serpentine jet streams, dry air, shearing etc. A real mixed bag which suggests NWS and NHC predictions may be harder than normal this year, as it has been the last few years.

Arabian Sea water surface temps are over 90 F now.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1663566460139044866

The NHC has put another 10% on their tropical watch map 9 days after the last one. It went from 10% to 0% to 10% last week and is still hanging out off the NC/VA coast.

Unsure what to expect here other than central-western Florida will get much needed rain in the Tampa region.
Maybe we get Arlene when it clears Florida?

https://imgur.com/p5jaO80

Speaking of that Carolina Low..

https://twitter.com/_/status/1663635265955459072

OTAY now it's an Invest. Maybe to budget justify a hurricane hunter fly-through tomorrow??



Ryan Hall Ya'll may be right about forecasts, but I might have beat him to the punch. or maybe not..

https://twitter.com/_/status/1664002942091886592

Yup.. "10 of the 25 costliest U.S. storms in history were Category 1 or Tropical Storms."

https://twitter.com/_/status/1663989776423215107

June 1st and OFFICAL start to 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season.

That said the end of May wrought interesting forecasts and developments. None the least of which has been two disturbances around Florida.

https://imgur.com/cjAOCSk

https://twitter.com/_/status/1664288141929328641

https://twitter.com/_/status/1664276741618307075

ARLENE

.

The Power AND the Glory

https://imgur.com/2qxRPfd

NHC Miami just issued it's latest NE Gulf tropical forecast.

70% chance for development

"Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center."

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Arlene .. is that you?

https://twitter.com/_/status/1664350353565859841

it may be a bad year for hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes and other natural disasters

the sun spots are increasing and hitting their peak in 2024-25 and then subsiding again starting in 2026

this 11 year cycle is almost to its Peak!

Tropical Depression Two has formed.. and Florida is receiving scattered heavy t-storm cells.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1664373579268382728

https://imgur.com/ChaMVGE

Last Edited by Humanitarianlike on 06/01/2023 05:22 PM

If named Arlene today on June 1st it would be the first time since 2007.

IMO we've been in a slow steady escalation period since about 1980. For most people though the awareness came around 2000 or 2010-12 when the escalation quickened.

Mayan Calendar recycled in 2013 for a good reason.

I'll be interested to see the next solar cycle and how it stacks up against the historical. If we are indeed heading into a solar micro-nova in the next 3 decades or so these 11-year cycles should start to show big anomalies. This one is def anomalous to what was predicted in Dec 2019.

Anyhoo.. thanks for the comments metanoia.

https://imgur.com/pQrKXWa