SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 121
Issue Time: 2023 Jan 06 0149 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2023 Jan 06 0043 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 Jan 06 0057 UTC
End Time: 2023 Jan 06 0107 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.2
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S18E68
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

thanks! this is important!!

https://twitter.com/_/status/1611172156636790788

DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: Newly-emerging sunspot AR3182 poses a threat for strong solar flares. On Jan. 3rd it produced a probable X-class eruption on the farside of the sun, followed on Jan. 6th by a definite X-flare on the Earthside. Given the size and apparent complexity of this large active region, there's a good chance the explosions will continue in the days ahead. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR3182 is living up to the hype. Fully visible for less than 24 hours, the active sunspot has already produced an intense X1.2-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the eruption on Jan. 6th just before 0100 UT:

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

january 5:

FARSIDE SUNSPOT EMERGES: As expected, a large sunspot and complex sunspot group is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. Current images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal a primary dark core approximately 3 times wider than Earth:


This is the same sunspot group that produced a significant farside explosion on Jan. 3rd. No one knows exactly how intense that explosion was, but circumstantial evidence suggests it was X-class.

Now that the active region is turning toward Earth, our planet could be in the line of fire for the next blast--*if* there is a next blast. Solar Cycle 25 is notorious for producing active regions that explode on the farside, then quiet down when they turn to face Earth. Time will tell if a geoeffective flare is in the offing.

Meanwhile, amateur astronomers are targeting the behemoth using backyard solar telescopes.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Could you please tell us WHEN Solar Cycle 25 began,
Digital Mix guy?

I know Doug Vogt covers this in his many video series,
but I can't recall which videos in which it appears!

Thanks a bunch--and thanks for all the updates!

EDITED: 1-07-2023

Found this excellent reference on Solar Cycle 25
(current cycle we are in with our star)...it reports
Cycle 25 began December, 2019...expected to continue
through 2030....hum...interesting!
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]


The Oracle's Cookie


"Geeze...Is it St. Patrick's Day yet? I'm
REALLY ready for some GREEN!"




Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 01/07/2023 01:19 PM

That's good to know. Thanks for that info!!

CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: NOAA forecasters say there is a 20% chance of X-class solar flares today. If it happens, it will probably come from sunspot AR3182, now turning to tace Earth:

https://imgur.com/oqmjo6h

AR3182 has already produced X-class events on Jan. 3rd and Jan 6th, so another one would be in character. Of equal interest is sunspot AR3181, which has doubled in size in the past 24 hours and is now directly facing Earth.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

SO, UH..R WE GONNA GIT BLASTED BY THAT X RAY THINGY OR WHUT?UH

C9.3

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Gonna be an exciting day

..IM STARTIN' TA TINK DAT U SOLAR-TARDZ R THE NEXT 'Q'... ;)

Another New AR is coming over the SE limb. It seems very active, too.

THREE M-flares and CMEs, too.

M1.2, M1.4 and another M1.4.

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Latest 24-hr. SDO movies:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 8 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Jan 2023
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3177 S18W61 334 0020 Axx 05 03 Alpha
3180 N18W37 310 0100 Cso 07 03 Beta
3181 S21W07 280 0380 Dki 09 16 Beta-Delta
3182 S17E46 227 0510 Eki 12 23 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3183 S17W36 309 0200 Dso 09 09 Beta-Delta

Latest HMI images:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

AR3181 Quietly Facing Earth Now-

:AR3181:
:3181_mag:

AR3182 Beta-Gamma-Delta -
:AR3182_HMIIC:

Another eruptive M1 flare from SE Limb (AR3184?)----

GOES SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

SolarDemon quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

I would be watching the WHOLE WEEK with this kind
of line-up of "bad boy spots"...We could even get a
Carrington out of these puppies!

Got ya'll bookmarked!


The Oracle's Cookie

Another M1.1 from new AR3184. That makes five M1 flares from this sunspot in less than 24 hours.

GOES UV imager:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Earlier I noticed something very unusual. Minutes before the M -flare @ 1855z, there was a fast ejection of plasma 15 degrees south of where the x-ray flare soon appeared. Not sure what was happening there... maybe the CME was from a helmet streamer or exploding filament. It seemed to me that the M-flare was in reaction to the CME and not directly related. Interesting.

CME Far South of M-flare

:M1/cme:

SEEDS movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

This nonsense is so easily debunked that I'm completely bored with it. It just disappoints me that so many folks are suckered in by known pseudo-science charlatans like Davidson and others.....aaauugghhhh.

IT'S IMPOSSIBLE FOR X-RAY FLARES TO CAUSE AN EARTHQUAKE. Besides, we have a very good understanding of how EQ's are really caused.

" x rays are not able to penetrate Earth's atmosphere; they are absorbed at about 62 mi (100 km) above the surface. Thus, only with the advent of rocket and satellite astronomy have astronomers been able to study the wide-ranging phenomena which produce x rays."

[link to www.encyclopedia.com (secure)]

For further reference- The EM Spectrum:

[link to www.st-andrews.ac.uk (secure)]

M2.1 from Earth-facing AR3181.

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Be alert for Earth-directed CME.

Quicklook movie of M2.1 :

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Modest dimming wave detected:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

X1.9 flare!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

I had reported on my own thread to have a "HEADS-UP"
for possible x-class flares this past weekend/current week
--given the mega-explosion back-side of the sun last week
(1-03-2023) from a sun spot group NOW coming around the
bend (east limb of sun.)

"Solar Sensitives" should be especially watchful as well
--given these extreme energy sources can cause real physical
and emotional symptoms! I'll post this health chart on
the KP INDEX/GAMMA RAY BURST effects. If you don't know
what a "KP INDEX" is...I would highly suggest you begin
doing some "solar homework!" It's in our face now!

:SOchartLABLED:

NOTE: Chart from Ben Davidson @ SuspiciousObservers (dot org)
Red box w/arrow refers to larger gamma ray exposure
when the KP Index is at "zero" (that translates to be
our magnetosphere protection is below standard to offer
"sensitives" relief.) Physical/emotional/cognitive effects
of various intensities (0 thru 9) are described.




The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 01/09/2023 03:27 PM

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1.9-class solar flare (Jan. 9th @ 1850 UT). The source is hyperactive sunspot AR3184, described below in 'Where the action is.' A pulse of radiation caused a shortwave radio blackout centered mainly on South America: blackout map. Stay tuned for updates.

WHERE THE ACTION IS: A new, hyperactive sunspot is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb: AR3184. This 10-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured at least half-a-dozen eruptions, most of them M-class:



None of the debris plumes will hit Earth; the sunspot is not facing our planet. It will turn in our direction later this week. Meanwhile, amateur astronomers with solar telescopes should point their optics at the southeastern limb. It's where the action is.


[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

UPDATE: The event was not associated with a CME. The only real impact on Earth looks to be the strong, but short lived radio blackout during the flare itself. No further impacts should be expected.

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

What are you talking about not associated with a CME? Are you ignoring or missing the huge plasma that ruptured at the same time as the X flare popped?