SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Interesting article re: Mysterious “aurora blobs” confirmed as proton auroras



Snip….April 23 left Europeans and scientists alike mystified. On that night, expecting the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME), photographers and enthusiasts were outdoors, cameras at the ready, to capture the anticipated auroras. However, the lights that danced across the sky were not ordinary auroras.
Longtime aurora watcher, Heiko Ulbricht of Saxony, Germany, shared his awe, “The auroras began to tear themselves apart, forming individual spots and blobs which rose all the way to the zenith.” ….

Who knows what other unusual and new events we will be seeing moving forward.
Exciting times!
Your Friend

Link for above - [link to watchers.news (secure)]

Massive far-side CME!

I'm guessing old AR3296 finally popped an x-flare. Possible protons could reach Earth. Strong proton events have come from far-side blasts in the past.

STEREO cor 2 image:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

SoHO C3 image:

[link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

This eruption may have occurred around the same time as the SE limb event.... Sol is getting angry.

Initial CACTus diagnostics calculates CME velocity between 1600-1900 km/s. I believe this could be 2000 km/s or greater.

CACTus Details:
[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

STEREO Cor2 movie:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Protons are indeed beginning to rise slightly already. This is hours before I thought we'd see any.

GOES Proton Flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

April 23: wow!

Although auroras, also known as the Northern and Southern Lights, put on a mesmerizing show of light in the night skies of the polar regions, they can be visible all over the world if the solar storm is of strong intensity. The G4 Geomagnetic storm sparked auroras which were not only in the U.S., but also in Europe, New Zealand, Asia and as far as South of France.

a U.S. based astrophotographer not only captured auroras, but possibly a Lyrid meteor too, above Apple River, Illinois, U.S. Moeller told space.com in an email, "I was running a timelapse on my camera at the time to capture the dancing aurora. Suddenly a bright white/blue meteor streaked from the east to the west through the light pillars for about 4-5 seconds before burning up and leaving a big smoke trail. It was incredible!"

Other astrophotographers around the world shot this fascinating phenomenon too.



[link to tech.hindustantimes.com (secure)]



Last Edited by Digital mix guy Spock on 05/16/2023 04:41 PM

Sometimes during strong geomagnetic storms, protons rain down from the ring system, causing a secondary shower of electrons, which strike the atmosphere and make auroras. Earth-orbiting satellites have actually seen these protons on their way down. Ordinary auroras, on the other hand, are caused by particles from more distant parts of Earth’s magnetosphere and have nothing to do with Earth’s ring current.

Mystery solved? Not entirely. “We still don’t know why proton auroras seem to tear themselves apart in such a dramatic way,” says Nishimura. “This is a question for future research.”

PARTIALLY ECLIPSED X-FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an M9.6-class solar flare from a sunspot group hiding behind the sun's southeastern limb. In fact, the explosion was probably X-class albeit partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:




Although the underlying sunspot group is hidden from view, it nevertheless managed to touch Earth. Radiation ionized the top of our planet's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over North America. Ham radio operators and aviators may have noticed loss of signal and other unusual propagation effects for up to an hour after the peak of the flare (1643 UT).

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

X FLARE (but officially only an M)! The Sun just produce an M9.6 flare from a new region behind the SE limb (see earlier tweet). It only needed to be 4% brighter to be counted as an X event & as much of it was occulted by the limb it almost certainly was a X flare but how big? :(

https://twitter.com/_/status/1658546381995270144

Wow!

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels this period due to an M9.6 flare at
16/1643 UTC that originated from just beyond the southeastern limb. This
same area of bright, enhanced flux was also responsible for C-class
activity throughout the period and is likely old Region 3288, which
produced M-class activity during its last rotation. Concerning the
visible disk, Region 3305 (N09W16, Dai/Beta) remained the most
interesting spot group. However, it exhibited a small amount of decay
and was relatively quiet. Region 3308 (N12W00, Bxo/Beta) emerged and was
numbered, but was otherwise unremarkable. New spots were also observed
near S18W36 and S21E08, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await
USAF observatory reports before conducting a proper analysis.

Other notable activity included a disappearing filament centered near
S12E55 at approximately 16/1054 UTC, which analysis initially indicates
was mostly reabsorbed. A type II sweep was also reported at 16/1731 UTC
with an estimated speed of 886 km/s. Shortly after, an associated CME
was observed emerging from beyond the western limb in SOHO-NASA C2
imagery at approximately 16/1736 UTC. Although relatively impressive,
this event does not appear to have any Earth-directed component. A
southeasterly, narrow, faint CME first seen by coronagraph imagery near
16/1712 may likely be associated with the aforementioned M9.6 event, but
due to the source regions location is not anticipated to be
Earth-directed either.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class
flare activity (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) through 19 May.

*************************************************************​***********

Ughh, they forgot to mention a SLIGHT CHANCE FOR X-FLARES!

Major flares tend to come in bunches when the magnetics are complex. We can't yet assess the sunspot region, but I would assume it's still capable of big flares.

M 9.62 Flare-

:M9.62_304a:
:M9.6flare:

There's still lotsa filaments on the Earth-facing disk now.

GONG h-alpha images:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

No predicting if or when these could erupt to produce a CME. Stay vigilant.

A disappearing filament erupted with a C4 flare and CME from the SW quadrant. CME doesn't appear to be Earth-directed.

SIDC Solar Demon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Dimming animation:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

STEREO movie of CME:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

ALSO, a series of mid-level C-flares from beyond the NE limb (C7.4 was the largest).

SDO 24-hr. movies:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

More spots are coming over in north and south very soon.

A "biggie" today you guys--no info with the picture
just that it happened around 5:00 P.M. EST--just thought it was pretty dramatic!



Busy sun!


The Oracle's Cookie

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary

SRS Number 138 Issued at 0030Z on 18 May 2023
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3301 N15W37 036 0010 Axx 02 04 Alpha
3302 N18W33 032 0050 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
3305 N12W30 028 0110 Dai 10 19 Beta-Gamma
3307 S08E03 356 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
3308 N12W14 013 0020 Cro 04 04 Beta
3309 S18W53 052 0020 Cro 04 04 Beta
3310 S20E74 285 0250 Dho 05 03 Beta

New AR3310-

:bigSS_SE:
:bigSS_HMIBC:

I'm not 100% certain that M9.6 came from AR3110 though it's certainly big enough to produce large flares. I suspect that another sunspot lurks behind it beyond the SE limb. The unseen region beyond the NE limb was very active today almost reaching M-level x-rays. This region may also be very large and volatile ... we should get a glimpse tomorrow.

Check out the east limb in the 171 angstrom images from SDO:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity diminished to low levels this period. Region 3310
(S20E74, Dho/Beta) was numbered this period and responsible for a few
lower level C-class flares. Region 3305 (N12W30, Dai/Beta-Gamma)
continued a slow trend of overall decay while Region 3308 (N12W14,
Cro/Beta) exhibited slight growth with maturing leading spots developing
rudimentary penumbra. Despite this, the bulk of the C-class flare
activity was the product of a new bright area of enhanced flux just
beyond the NE limb, the largest of which was a C9.5 at 17/2148 UTC.

Region 3309 (S18W53, Cro/Beta) produced at C4.3/SF flare at 17/1530 UTC.
Associated with this event was a type II radio sweep which began at
17/1522 and measured 343 km/s. The resulting CME was first seen by
SOHO-NASA C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 17/1636 UTC. Although
a glancing blow at Earth around late on 21 May is not out of the
question, an Earth-directed component is not likely. Modeling of this
event is currently underway.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class
flare activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 20 May

CACTus CME details:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Possible glancing blow.....

BAFFLED! Yes, science is still trying to figure this stuff out. This research is investigating the 'Equinox Effect' relation to geomagnetic storms.



Space waves offer new clues to space weather
by Ginger Pinholster for Embry-Riddle News
Daytona Beach FL (SPX) May 17, 2023

<50% excerpt--

Describing the properties of space waves and the mechanisms that cause them to intensify is key to understanding and forecasting space weather, Kavosi noted: "Space weather events represent an increasing threat, yet in many cases, we don't understand exactly what controls it. Any progress we can make in understanding the mechanisms behind space weather disturbances will improve our ability to provide forecasts and warnings."

In trying to understand the causes of seasonal and diurnal variations of geomagnetic activity, researchers in the field have set forth several different hypotheses. For example, the Russell-McPherron (R-M) effect, first described in 1973, explains why auroras are more frequent and brighter in the spring and fall, based on the interplay of the Earth's dipole tilt and a small magnetic field near the sun's equator.

"We don't have all the answers yet," said Dr. Katariina Nykyri, professor of physics and associate director for the Center of Space and Atmospheric Research at Embry-Riddle, "but our paper shows that the R-M effect is not the only explanation for the seasonal variation of geomagnetic activities. Equinox-driven events, based on the Earth's dipole tilt, and R-M effects could operate simultaneously."

[link to www.spacedaily.com (secure)]

East limb coming in big and hot!

C 8.6 from beyond the NE limb. (In the SUVI images we can see a simultaneous filament liftoff on the NW limb).

SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

X-rays climbing again.....

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

DOUBLE-HEADER....M-FLARES....

M 1.0 and M 1.3 from NE limb.

GOES Ultraviolet Imager:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

He's coming in HOT....

about three days from rotation you suppose?

TRIPLE PEAKED M2.2... lasted more than 1 hour above M.

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

GOES X-Rays:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

M1.1

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

M 3.86 from NE limb.

SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Goin' back up! M 4 now!

M4.5....second peak... strong LDE in progress.

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Solarsoft has recorded 8 M-flares today!

Latest Events flare list:

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Solarsoft has a time-compressed close-up movie of the first 5 M-flares:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]