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As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68

 
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/11/2020 06:09 AM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
The commies are desperate!! They claim to have tested ALL of Wuhan!!

[link to www.indiatoday.in (secure)]

What utter BS

They would have had to test ~500,000 per day the last few weeks!

Utter BS

Do they think the world is stupid or just can't do math
 Quoting: ETpeace



Well, the commies are even more stupid than that, or have a very short memory span.

They said that 5 million people left Wuhan before lock-down.

And Wuhan is 11 million people city.

So...only 6 million left in the city...but they tested 11 million?
Did they brought back the 5 million that left?


Another reason why NOBODY should give a flying fuck on what China is saying.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/11/2020 06:12 AM
sunwatcher

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02/11/2020 07:23 AM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
"Feb 12th: Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100"
(OP)

fail

As of today 2/10/2020
910 reported deaths total
[link to wuflu.live (secure)]
871 in Hubei Province
37 the rest of China (highest in a single province 7)
2 deaths outside China (1 Chinese, 1 immunocompromised)
( Thread: Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is Not Proving to be Very Deadly Outside Hubei Province, Why Not? (Page 4) CK Dexter Haven)

and the cruise ship in Japan (a "real" "big lab") also has shown death rate progress opposite to what model points
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/11/2020 08:11 AM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
"Feb 12th: Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100"
(OP)

fail

As of today 2/10/2020
910 reported deaths total
[link to wuflu.live (secure)]
871 in Hubei Province
37 the rest of China (highest in a single province 7)
2 deaths outside China (1 Chinese, 1 immunocompromised)
( Thread: Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is Not Proving to be Very Deadly Outside Hubei Province, Why Not? (Page 4) CK Dexter Haven)
 Quoting: sunwatcher



and the cruise ship in Japan (a "real" "big lab") also has shown death rate progress opposite to what model points
 Quoting: and the cruise ship in Japan (a "real" "big lab") also has shown death rate progress opposite to what model points



Nowhere in my model death rate exists. And I specifically said that my model is not about death rate.

Proof that you haven't read the entire main post.

Also, my model is NOT FOR CHINA. Did you even READ the title?

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/11/2020 08:17 AM
IdeaMan1624

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02/11/2020 09:49 AM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
ITS LIKE A MASSIVE SLOW MOTION TRAIN WRECK - That’s what it feels like we are watching – a massive slow motion catastrophic train wreck as it is happening live. Lots and lots of conspiracy stories developing from aliens to the UN. Doesn’t matter at this point. The only thing that matters at this point is how serious is this virus going to be for each one of us. Sleep does not come as easily as usual, for many of us now. I am only posting in this thread as some of you know. Props to Lady Jayne Smith for keeping this thread short and clean. Hats off to you. I still believe OPs numbers are good. The issue I am focusing on now is Wuhan numbers and deaths outside of China. Ratios and reporting numbers should really start moving, starting tonight coming from outside of China. I am afraid the Wuhan numbers that will be reported beginning with todays or tomorrow’s numbers (numbers will be bogus of course) will start to decrease as these newly reported decreasing numbers will be interpreted by global media as the virus is dying and all will be normal soon. We are already seeing hints of this in the media. Do not be fooled by this.

Also the global supply chain is already beginning to decrease and freight ship activity leaving the China region is already slowing down. Large companies are already closing plants temporarily (yeah right) because of China supply chain issues. This is huge as these corporate measures will affect shareholders thus affecting the market price of the company’s share price. It is the prudent thing to do as a CEO but the equivalent of cutting off your leg to stay alive. This entire CoV event might be a global reset orchestrated to forgive sovereign (each countries) debt while culling the entire global herd too. See I told you there are lots of conspiracy theories. But this one (mine) is making more and more sense to me. It still does not change my firm belief that - Where you live will determine if/how you survive this ordeal.

Below I am providing some items you might want to get for this and any future event. They will come in handy and may not be available for too much longer (remember supply chain). Just search the term on Amazon or elsewhere. I do know all these items are still available at Amazon and can be delivered to your door next day delivery.

Oxygen Blood Level Meter (this is very important) - $15-$20
Virus Killing Light or Light Bulb - $16-$150
Make Your Own Colloidal Silver - $30- $200
Clear Lungs Supplement Extra Strong (Excellent, I use it daily) - $25
Cytokine Suppress Supplement - $17
IdeaMan1624
carterCZ

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02/11/2020 11:34 AM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Yesterday, Trump stated that several people had told him that, just like the normal flu, the corona virus would decrease in the summer months. That we were in good shape with only 11 cases so far. Implied that all we had to do is make it to April.

I have not read about whether you think this virus will be seasonal like most colds and flues are. Do you think we are ok if we can make it to April? Is there any indication the corona virus will be seasonal?
carterCZ
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 11:34 AM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

IMPORTANT TO READ:
A bioengenier designed a mask that actually its self-desinfectant and kills the pathogens trapped by the mask... using basically SALT (kitchen salt + surfactant) ... maybe easy to replicate... the main issue is that the salt, making sharp crystals, cuts the pathogen
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 11:36 AM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
ITS LIKE A MASSIVE SLOW MOTION TRAIN WRECK - That’s what it feels like we are watching – a massive slow motion catastrophic train wreck as it is happening live. Lots and lots of conspiracy stories developing from aliens to the UN. Doesn’t matter at this point. The only thing that matters at this point is how serious is this virus going to be for each one of us. Sleep does not come as easily as usual, for many of us now. I am only posting in this thread as some of you know. Props to Lady Jayne Smith for keeping this thread short and clean. Hats off to you. I still believe OPs numbers are good. The issue I am focusing on now is Wuhan numbers and deaths outside of China. Ratios and reporting numbers should really start moving, starting tonight coming from outside of China. I am afraid the Wuhan numbers that will be reported beginning with todays or tomorrow’s numbers (numbers will be bogus of course) will start to decrease as these newly reported decreasing numbers will be interpreted by global media as the virus is dying and all will be normal soon. We are already seeing hints of this in the media. Do not be fooled by this.

Also the global supply chain is already beginning to decrease and freight ship activity leaving the China region is already slowing down. Large companies are already closing plants temporarily (yeah right) because of China supply chain issues. This is huge as these corporate measures will affect shareholders thus affecting the market price of the company’s share price. It is the prudent thing to do as a CEO but the equivalent of cutting off your leg to stay alive. This entire CoV event might be a global reset orchestrated to forgive sovereign (each countries) debt while culling the entire global herd too. See I told you there are lots of conspiracy theories. But this one (mine) is making more and more sense to me. It still does not change my firm belief that - Where you live will determine if/how you survive this ordeal.

Below I am providing some items you might want to get for this and any future event. They will come in handy and may not be available for too much longer (remember supply chain). Just search the term on Amazon or elsewhere. I do know all these items are still available at Amazon and can be delivered to your door next day delivery.

Oxygen Blood Level Meter (this is very important) - $15-$20
Virus Killing Light or Light Bulb - $16-$150
Make Your Own Colloidal Silver - $30- $200
Clear Lungs Supplement Extra Strong (Excellent, I use it daily) - $25
Cytokine Suppress Supplement - $17
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


"Cytokine Suppress Supplement" ??? can u give an idea of this? brand? or whatever?
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/11/2020 11:55 AM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Yesterday, Trump stated that several people had told him that, just like the normal flu, the corona virus would decrease in the summer months. That we were in good shape with only 11 cases so far. Implied that all we had to do is make it to April.

I have not read about whether you think this virus will be seasonal like most colds and flues are. Do you think we are ok if we can make it to April? Is there any indication the corona virus will be seasonal?
 Quoting: carterCZ


The U.S. is lying big time, just like China.

There are easily thousands infected in the U.S., and dozens of deaths (hidden as pneumonia / flu) from COVID19, the government, including Trump, KNOW IT.


But they can't say it, for a very simple reason : MARKETS and PANIC.

Every single country is low-balling the numbers, big time, for the same reasons.


But the U.S. have to really keep this on the DL, because the entire system will flash crash if the U.S. would say the REAL number of infected and dead people from COVID19 in the U.S.

They have NO CHOICE, but to DELAY the panic for as long as they CAN.


And I kinda understand it...this is why I made my model to reflect the REAL numbers (or as close as I can get), because very soon, the number of serious cases will be that big, that everyone will know it.


When this WILL happen , not IF, the governments WILL announce it, panic will start, the markets, as rigged as they are, will crash, and it's everyone for themselves.


But it will not be before the government are READY for the outcome. And time is running out...3-4 weeks left, end of February - beginning of March, for US and EU.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/11/2020 11:55 AM
miabelieves

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02/11/2020 11:57 AM

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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Yesterday, Trump stated that several people had told him that, just like the normal flu, the corona virus would decrease in the summer months. That we were in good shape with only 11 cases so far. Implied that all we had to do is make it to April.

I have not read about whether you think this virus will be seasonal like most colds and flues are. Do you think we are ok if we can make it to April? Is there any indication the corona virus will be seasonal?
 Quoting: carterCZ


who knows, I haven't seen any input on tests of heat. I know flu B can be anytime of the year while A is seasonal. WE don't know enough about this virus to know. Guess we will come April/May/June, right?
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
IdeaMan1624

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02/11/2020 01:02 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Just search Amazon or the web for “Cytokine Suppress Supplement” you will find it and make your own decisions. I am not recommending any brand or A brand.

FYI on “this virus will not live in summer time”. Check out the weather in Singapore right now. Google it…..No WAIT I did it for you, see below. Wow is that summer weather now? See what OP is talking about listening to any government right now.

Singapore, Central Region, Singapore 10 Day Weather
1:41 am SGT
Tuesday
DAY HIGH / LOW PRECIP WIND HUMIDITY

FEB 11 20% NE 3 mph 96%
WED
FEB 12 89°78° 80% ENE 9 mph 76%
THU
FEB 13 90°77° 20% NE 9 mph 73%
FRI
FEB 14 90°76° 40% NE 8 mph 72%
IdeaMan1624
mr. jingles

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02/11/2020 01:34 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Yesterday, Trump stated that several people had told him that, just like the normal flu, the corona virus would decrease in the summer months. That we were in good shape with only 11 cases so far. Implied that all we had to do is make it to April.

I have not read about whether you think this virus will be seasonal like most colds and flues are. Do you think we are ok if we can make it to April? Is there any indication the corona virus will be seasonal?
 Quoting: carterCZ


The U.S. is lying big time, just like China.

There are easily thousands infected in the U.S., and dozens of deaths (hidden as pneumonia / flu) from COVID19, the government, including Trump, KNOW IT.


But they can't say it, for a very simple reason : MARKETS and PANIC.

Every single country is low-balling the numbers, big time, for the same reasons.


But the U.S. have to really keep this on the DL, because the entire system will flash crash if the U.S. would say the REAL number of infected and dead people from COVID19 in the U.S.

They have NO CHOICE, but to DELAY the panic for as long as they CAN.


And I kinda understand it...this is why I made my model to reflect the REAL numbers (or as close as I can get), because very soon, the number of serious cases will be that big, that everyone will know it.


When this WILL happen , not IF, the governments WILL announce it, panic will start, the markets, as rigged as they are, will crash, and it's everyone for themselves.


But it will not be before the government are READY for the outcome. And time is running out...3-4 weeks left, end of February - beginning of March, for US and EU.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


IF countries are lying to quell the markets THEN we will find out.
IF OP and his model are right THEN it will match coincidentally in due time

Everyone around me in San Diego are getting sick. Is it the virus? I dont think so, but immune systems are being taxed which wont help if it arrives very shortly.
Even im a little sick but i know its just a cold.

If yall dont think the countries will put thier economy first to allow central banks and private coorps to feast just a little while longer and then pull the plug... you gonna hate life soon

Last Edited by mr. jingles on 02/11/2020 01:38 PM
mr. jingles
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02/11/2020 01:41 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Yesterday, Trump stated that several people had told him that, just like the normal flu, the corona virus would decrease in the summer months. That we were in good shape with only 11 cases so far. Implied that all we had to do is make it to April.

I have not read about whether you think this virus will be seasonal like most colds and flues are. Do you think we are ok if we can make it to April? Is there any indication the corona virus will be seasonal?
 Quoting: carterCZ


The U.S. is lying big time, just like China.

There are easily thousands infected in the U.S., and dozens of deaths (hidden as pneumonia / flu) from COVID19, the government, including Trump, KNOW IT.


But they can't say it, for a very simple reason : MARKETS and PANIC.

Every single country is low-balling the numbers, big time, for the same reasons.


But the U.S. have to really keep this on the DL, because the entire system will flash crash if the U.S. would say the REAL number of infected and dead people from COVID19 in the U.S.

They have NO CHOICE, but to DELAY the panic for as long as they CAN.


And I kinda understand it...this is why I made my model to reflect the REAL numbers (or as close as I can get), because very soon, the number of serious cases will be that big, that everyone will know it.


When this WILL happen , not IF, the governments WILL announce it, panic will start, the markets, as rigged as they are, will crash, and it's everyone for themselves.


But it will not be before the government are READY for the outcome. And time is running out...3-4 weeks left, end of February - beginning of March, for US and EU.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Watch the Stockmarkets(USA). The insiders will have a heads up before the disclosure starts and the major indices will reflect that.
Get prepared as much as you can before hand, once the "Cat is out of the bag" panic will start and cascade very quickly.
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 01:48 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
OP...again much thanks for your daily updates. Im the same guy that wrote a compliment to you for your help only to get attacked by the trolls.


I figured too that alot of the nations (like US) would like about it for reasons you specified (to keep the markets propped up)

Regardless...and im being a simpleton here...the trend continues even with the lowball numbers. They still continue to go up.

And yes...there will be a time when the obvious cant be hidden anymore. Im keeping an eye on your dates around 3 to 4 weeks from now.
darth

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02/11/2020 01:49 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Yesterday, Trump stated that several people had told him that, just like the normal flu, the corona virus would decrease in the summer months. That we were in good shape with only 11 cases so far. Implied that all we had to do is make it to April.

I have not read about whether you think this virus will be seasonal like most colds and flues are. Do you think we are ok if we can make it to April? Is there any indication the corona virus will be seasonal?
 Quoting: carterCZ


The U.S. is lying big time, just like China.

There are easily thousands infected in the U.S., and dozens of deaths (hidden as pneumonia / flu) from COVID19, the government, including Trump, KNOW IT.


But they can't say it, for a very simple reason : MARKETS and PANIC.

Every single country is low-balling the numbers, big time, for the same reasons.


But the U.S. have to really keep this on the DL, because the entire system will flash crash if the U.S. would say the REAL number of infected and dead people from COVID19 in the U.S.

They have NO CHOICE, but to DELAY the panic for as long as they CAN.


And I kinda understand it...this is why I made my model to reflect the REAL numbers (or as close as I can get), because very soon, the number of serious cases will be that big, that everyone will know it.


When this WILL happen , not IF, the governments WILL announce it, panic will start, the markets, as rigged as they are, will crash, and it's everyone for themselves.


But it will not be before the government are READY for the outcome. And time is running out...3-4 weeks left, end of February - beginning of March, for US and EU.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Watch the Stockmarkets(USA). The insiders will have a heads up before the disclosure starts and the major indices will reflect that.
Get prepared as much as you can before hand, once the "Cat is out of the bag" panic will start and cascade very quickly.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78420351


Wife has been going to English classes with a group of Hispanic immigrants. Yesterday, she said a lot of the students had dropped out because they KNOW about the danger of the virus.

I was surprised, but Latin TV channels often reveal the truth about important news before the MSM.

Apparently, their channels are not censored like the MSM.
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 01:57 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Does it affect your model in any way now that it's confirmed airborne and this you can get despite being outside the 6 foot radius?
[link to www.msn.com (secure)]
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/11/2020 02:02 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Japan’s Ministry of Health is unable to test all passengers on the #DiamondPrincess cruise for #COVID19, because their number of test kits are limited. They need to first test high-risk passengers but also have to take care of elderlies and patients with other diseases.


[link to twitter.com (secure)]


If Japan, one of the richest and developed countries in the WORLD, cannot AFFORD to test 3,700 people...no wonder that the number of officially confirmed cases is THAT LOW, compared to my model numbers.


From the horses mouth : WE CANNOT TEST 3,700 because the number of test is LIMITED !

And this is not Gabon, Nigeria or Venezuela...IT'S BLOODY JAPAN !


I decided, AGAIN, not to modify my model. There is no point. It is clear that my model is correct or even OPTIMISTIC, if one of the richest country on Earth DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH KITS TO TEST 3,700 people !


There is no doubt any longer : the world is coming to a crossroad, very, very soon.


It's up to everyone to chose what to do, because the time is running short.

3-4 weeks, at most, and S will HTF.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/11/2020 02:02 PM
Fluffy Pancakes

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02/11/2020 02:18 PM

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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Well if this January 17th death in Torrance CA of a Peruvian woman...attributed to Coronavirus....Is true, it could seriously impact everything here sooner than thought. Here being the US.
Things are bad enough, there is no need to make anything up.

"Never interrupt an enemy in the process of destroying himself."...Q
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 02:24 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
You didn't account for new metrics to calculate what a counted case was. A case is no longer going to be counted if it is asymptomatic. Fix your model because New Accounting says everything is awesome.

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/11/2020 02:25 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
You didn't account for new metrics to calculate what a counted case was. A case is no longer going to be counted if it is asymptomatic. Fix your model because New Accounting says everything is awesome.

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76953217


My model is for infected people, no matter if they are confirmed or not, symptomatic or not.


I did accounted for that. My model needs no fixing.


Your READING skills need fixing.
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 02:53 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
You didn't account for new metrics to calculate what a counted case was. A case is no longer going to be counted if it is asymptomatic. Fix your model because New Accounting says everything is awesome.

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76953217


My model is for infected people, no matter if they are confirmed or not, symptomatic or not.


I did accounted for that. My model needs no fixing.


Your READING skills need fixing.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

This was intended to be a joke, you know humour but if you want to be that way I should point out you have edited your model as several people quoted your original post and you have significantly reduced your numbers. Inventing a new category called Serious.

Original Post
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100

New post
Feb 11th: 10,383,000 /12,979,000 infected / 94,480/ 118,100 with symptoms

Completely Invented
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 18,900 - 23,600



Original Post
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600

New Post
Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms

Completely invented
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100



Internet doesn't work the way you would like it.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/11/2020 02:55 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
You didn't account for new metrics to calculate what a counted case was. A case is no longer going to be counted if it is asymptomatic. Fix your model because New Accounting says everything is awesome.

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76953217


My model is for infected people, no matter if they are confirmed or not, symptomatic or not.


I did accounted for that. My model needs no fixing.


Your READING skills need fixing.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

This was intended to be a joke, you know humour but if you want to be that way I should point out you have edited your model as several people quoted your original post and you have significantly reduced your numbers. Inventing a new category called Serious.

Original Post
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100

New post
Feb 11th: 10,383,000 /12,979,000 infected / 94,480/ 118,100 with symptoms

Completely Invented
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 18,900 - 23,600



Original Post
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600

New Post
Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms

Completely invented
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100



Internet doesn't work the way you would like it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76953217


I had the serious cases category since January 28th.
Anyone who followed my thread from the beginning KNOWS this.

I deleted that data, and I said why...if you would read the damn MAIN POST, which you never did.


The ENTIRE reason of my model, since it was posted, was to determine WHEN the system will start to feel the pressure...and for that, I STARTED WITH THE SERIOUS CASES category from the beginning.


I DID NOT ADDED IT LATER !


The serious cases needing hospitalization was added later, smartass...BECAUSE NOBODY KNEW the ratio when I posted my thread.


Are you thick or something?

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/11/2020 02:58 PM
71cuda
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02/11/2020 03:45 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
I'm sorry you have to keep defending your model, it's the only logical information available. I am not a math wiz, keep up the good information .


I still watch the life insurers stocks, cause they are gonna pay, i doubt this will be an act of god or war. BUT if it was declared a bio-weapon, then insurance wont have to pay , examples would include Aegon/Transamerica, Metlife, etc
Anonymous Coward
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Thread: Source John Hopkins Univ.: Over 400 Confirmed Cases in USA!!

Source John Hopkins Univ.: Over 400 Confirmed Cases in USA!!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78463918
Italy
02/11/2020 03:57 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Op please give us some advice
Where can we hide?
How to treat the illness?
Anything you think may help
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 75039113
Argentina
02/11/2020 03:59 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
...


YES PLEASE!!!!

OP, your info is invaluable. Please don’t let the trolls discourage you. Those of us with an IQ higher than a beer can of Halcyon Daze malt liquor desperately WANT your insights.

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75214035


It's not about the trolls. It's about the model.

I expect the number of confirmed cases to rise significantly next week, outside China.

If they do not, I will rework the model, and the result will probably be that this virus is just not that bad outside China.

And if it's not that bad, I no longer care about numbers...we dodged the bullet.


The entire reason for my model is to see IF we're fucked or not.

From the beginning I said that February 15th-16th are CRITICAL DATES.

Basically, and I will put this as simple as I can, if by February 16th, the number of OFFICIALLY confirmed cases outside China is going to be around 800...it's BAD NEWS.


My personal expectation is that the number of cases outside China, on February 16th will be close to 1,000.

If we will have 800-1,000 or more confirmed cases at the end of February 16th, outside China, there is no point to update the model...it's SHTF at the beginning of March.

Numbers won't change the outcome.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thanks for the great thread!

That said, I've read your entire thread and maybe I'm missing something.

Why is 800-1,000 cases OUTSIDE of China so significant? That's just a drop of water in an ocean compared to the billions of people who live OUTSIDE of China.

Thanks for your time, patience, and consideration. hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


The vast majority of confirmed cases are serious enough to go to a hospital.

Those 800 confirmed cases are outside Africa, India, S&C.America, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other countries (who do not have testing kits or don't report cases), which are about 4.2 billion people.

There are 6.3 billion people outside China.

So, 800 confirmed cases for about 2.1 billion people, which is about 1/3rd of the cases outside China.

Hence, the real number of serious cases is actually 2,400, but only 800 are tested and confirmed usually 24-36 hrs. after testing.

Now, serious cases are roughly 18% of the total SYMPTOMATIC cases.

Which means that there are around 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases outside China, with 82% of them being mild cases and confused with a light flu, and will not go to a hospital, hence, they are undetected and untested and, ofc, not confirmed...but they ARE 13,300 REAL people.

Now, in order to have 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases, who are out of incubation phase which is usually 14 days, according to latest data, applying a 2.2 denominator (the R0) for each "hop", and a "hop" is maximum 24 hrs. (it is usually less) it means that there are 2.2 x 2.2 (13 times in row) = 11,165 infected but ASYMPTOMATIC people for 1 of the each 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases.

Which is 11,165 x 13,300, roughly 148,500,000 infected people in total (asymptomatic+mild cases+serious cases) OUTSIDE CHINA.

Yes, 800 is a drop in an ocean...the problem is that those 800 confirmed cases cannot exist if there aren't 148,5 MILLION infected behind them.


I hope I made myself understood.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

you couldnt have laid it out better! thank you! i really believe this is gonna happen. all is gonna change!
Anonymous Coward
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United States
02/11/2020 04:05 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
PLEASE CONTINUE WITH YOUR FINE WORK! hf

clappa
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78311287
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02/11/2020 04:25 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Thread: Source John Hopkins Univ.: Over 400 Confirmed Cases in USA!!

Source John Hopkins Univ.: Over 400 Confirmed Cases in USA!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78420351


That was a really bad graphic. There are 400 confirmed cases total outside China, not in the US.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78311287
United States
02/11/2020 04:54 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Op please give us some advice
Where can we hide?
How to treat the illness?
Anything you think may help
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78463918


Ciao,

The best thing you can do is try to prevent getting the virus. Wash your hands often, and do not touch your face. Take your shoes off at the door. Keep all surfaces as clean as possible. If you can, avoid the trains and metro or any crowded places.

Have extra food, water, toiletries, and medications in case of quarantine. Stay informed, do not panic. I am not a medical professional, but those are the steps I am taking. Take care.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78311287
United States
02/11/2020 04:54 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Op please give us some advice
Where can we hide?
How to treat the illness?
Anything you think may help
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78463918


Ciao,

The best thing you can do is try to prevent getting the virus. Wash your hands often, and do not touch your face. Take your shoes off at the door. Keep all surfaces as clean as possible. If you can, avoid the trains and metro or any crowded places.

Have extra food, water, toiletries, and medications in case of quarantine. Stay informed, do not panic. I am not a medical professional, but those are the steps I am taking. Take care.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78311287


Obviously, I am not the OP!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78420351
United States
02/11/2020 04:59 PM
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Re: As per requested : LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-(with N.America and Europe model numbers)-UPDATE : Pg.68
Op please give us some advice
Where can we hide?
How to treat the illness?
Anything you think may help
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78463918


Ciao,

The best thing you can do is try to prevent getting the virus. Wash your hands often, and do not touch your face. Take your shoes off at the door. Keep all surfaces as clean as possible. If you can, avoid the trains and metro or any crowded places.

Have extra food, water, toiletries, and medications in case of quarantine. Stay informed, do not panic. I am not a medical professional, but those are the steps I am taking. Take care.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78311287


^^^This is good advice.
Also get vitamins/medicine to boost Immune System and to fight Cytokine Storm.





GLP