WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

I agree and disagree. The problem may be the definition of "doom."

I think it's important then to distinguish "doom" into two stages.

The first stage is when the pandemic is happening but the public doesn't know. The water quietly recedes before the Tsunami hits. We are in this stage now.

During this stage, governments will indefinitely try to keep the public in the dark about this reality for as long as possible. It could be for weeks more or even months more before the public eventually finds out. Which brings us to...

The second stage of doom. This is doom proper. All your family, friends, neighbors now know what you've known during the first stage. This is when pandemic turns into global panic. Massive shortages, panic, looting, infrastructure failures, government shutdowns, martial law, etc.

The super important question is: WHEN will we transition from stage 1 to stage 2?

anyone have any ideas?

To follow up on my above two replies, here's my prediction:

The global public by and large will stay uninformed about what's really going on for at least another month or two. Statistics and reports will be doctored globally, a la China, to keep prevent panic. This will be done for as long as possible and at great expense.

Yes, the cases will rise swiftly over the next two weeks, but, again, they will find a way to doctor the stats.

You also have to consider this: China has quarantined 100 million people now, and yet the world shrugs it off as if it's nothing.

China could quarantine another 200 million over the next two weeks and the world will still shrug. Why?

Because people don't pay attention to what governments do, but rather what they say.

And China will basically say that the rates have now stopped going up exponentially and the growth curve has flatlined. They are increasing the new case count by about 150 every day and new death count by around 60. So incredibly stable and safe sounding! So the alarm bells are not going off for the rest of the world. And you can bet that China will continue this fictional narrative in their daily reports for as long as they can.

This is the fictional narrative they are pulling with the stats:
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

What this all means, again, is that for the next few weeks, the world will remain in the dark, stock markets will continue to increase, and a nervous calm will continue to anesthetize the public to prevent panic.

I think the most that they can hide the real data is for another 3 weeks. Until then, cities like Shanghai and Beijing will already have outbreaks and quarantine. But, most importantly, countries like Japan, Thailand and Singapore will already have thousands of cases, and it will no longer matters what data comes from China.

Its february 5, air travel has s accelerating, chinese virus sleeves continue to disgorge from 747s into california...

How many dead in china op, MODEL THAT

give them a comfortable place to die.

holy fuck

Someone besides me realizes that China has already spent almost half a trillion dollars to prevent the financial collapse. And that they've been selling a lot of gold to do that?

And that "Someone" is selling A LOT of Bitcoin to prevent a sudden rise.

Panic control is working on all fronts.

I'm in Thailand which is supposed to be the country to be most affected by Coronavirus after China.

I see more face masks being worn but, other than that, everything is normal. There is no crisis whatsoever.

Doom off

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655
48 hrs delay. (February 5th, 00:00 GMT : Official confirmed cases : 226 (+5 asymptomatic cases in Japan)

This very difficult for OP now as we have as he said 60% of the worlds population are not reporting any (or tiny) cases. Central and South America, East Europe, Middle East and Africa.

Africa has over 1 million Chinese supporting the continent!

Also a lot of countries reporting will have their own agendas for holding numbers back (stopping panic mainly).

Include the 60% hidden data and you get 565 which becomes a lot closer to the model.

Last Edited by ParamedicUK on 02/05/2020 05:03 AM

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

From the New England Journal of Medicine

[link to www.nejm.org (secure)]

This is a case study with contact chart. If this is a normal transmission schema for this virus the current R0 thinking is way low. Chart says at best, at best, patient 1 was infected and passed it on in less than 48 hrs. This involves 4 patients none of which became seriously ill. Patient 1 actually got better and went back to work without seeing a doctor. It was only when the originator, who became ill on the return flight to Shanghai was diagnosed and contacted patient 1 back in Germany. When patient 1 presented to health officials his viral load was 100,000,000 per mil of sputum or 10 to 8th per mil. That if very high but considering at this point he has no fever and is at work.

Sans any race specific tendencies, this thing will sweep the entire herd of humanity.

Hello my friend. Congratulations for your work!
Did you make the case projection just to cases outside China?
Thank's!

Read again what I wrote in the entire thread.

I never said what you are claiming I said.


Please read again, but this time slower, and pay more attention on the words I used and how.

Last Edited by Recollector on 02/05/2020 06:51 AM

The rate of change in the deaths per day average over 12 days, split into 4 day chunks, shows more than doubling every 4 days ( of the average )

Why are you wasting your time on numbers that are fake?

because it makes it obvious how full of shit the Chinese are

If you extrapolate backwards in time to early December when the outbreak happened, at that rate they'd be bringing people back to life

Therefore official numbers = BS

That's the power of analysis

Don't trip, dude, we're on the same team

The 6th is when he intends to adjust the model based upon number of infections OUTSIDE China.

Lmao- planeload of chinese just landed at sfo- several passengers had to carried out on stretchers...

link? pic's?

If so, get pics and start a new thread.

This is incorrect. OP has adjusted his intention now to not update the model due to the Japanese cruise ship incident. You can read about this in his first post in this thread which he's updated.

It was correct when Lady Jayne Smith posted the reply.

Thank you for mentioning that I updated the main post.

Cheers.

My thoughts as well, AC.

I did read your stuff again. In fact, I had read this whole thread since the beginning and thanked you many many times for your hard work and efforts.

I agreed with 99% of what you wrote. The only 1% of your postings that I was concerned about was this part:




I had replied to this a few times earlier, but got no response. To quickly recap now:

When you wrote "there will be almost 2,000 symptomatic cases outside China by Feb. 6th, and the authorities can no longer delay announcing them " I interpreted this as a prediction that by Feb 6th, the authorities will announce the almost 2,000 symptomatic cases outside China (since they can no longer delay it).

Of all your predictions, I thought this was one of the most important and extraordinary. Simple because accurate timing is so difficult but so valuable.

So my question is, was my intperretation of your quote wrong? If so, can you clarify what you meant? Was there some sort of event that you foresaw (but didn't reveal) that you knew would force the authorities to no longer delay the truth?

It's okay to make mistakes in something as difficult as this. As long as course corrections are swift. I was wondering if this was just one of those things. Or not.

As I've said, I support you and am a fan and that's why I'm raising these concerns with you.

One more thing.

My belief since the very beginning was it wasn't just China kicking the can down the road, but that the global world order would kick the can down the road and it will be many weeks, perhaps months, before the public masses are allowed to know the reality of the situation.

It may even be that the public will be left in the dark until the entire coronavirus debacle passes. Much like the Spanish flu. We figured out the truth of it only after wards with a forensic reexamination of the disease.

I think the same will happen with this one. Only in several years to come will people know the truth that the governments around the world kept from the public - for years.

Do you agree with this now, given the recent turn of events with Japan?

I still think your work has value. Any model that tries to show the true numbers, even if it had a 50% margin of error, would be more accurate than the numbers the world is permitting the masses to see. So I don't think you should stop what you're doing.

I just think it's important to course correct upon every new discovery. And I'm glad you did so with Japan's cruise ship. I just hope you don't quit altogether!

Thanks.

Ah ok. I didn't know you had updated it so recently. Thanks.
And thank you Lady Jayne.

You are right.

Everyday, more information, from official sources across the world, are changing what we knew the day before.

When I said that the authorities will have to announce the numbers, it was the day I posted the model, and at that date I assumed that testing was short, the results were conclusive.

But everything changed since, and the Japan cruise ship crisis, basically proven that the authorities, along the fact that they want to avoid panic, are only to detect and test a fraction of the infected people.

So, yeah, even with current information, we are still in the dark, and models are inaccurate.

In my latest update, I announced that I won't modify the numbers and I also said that I think that the model is optimistic.

I have to accept that there is a high margin of error in my model, but with every day that passes, new info will come to light, and if that info is a radical one, I will make the necessary modifications, if needed.

Thank you for your post.

So I went and checked the original post and saw the info on the Japanese cruise ship.


1.Japan knew that a confirmed case was on the cruise ship.
2.Japan knew that everyone on the cruise ship is a suspect.

In other words, Japan was FULLY PREPARED to quarantine and test everyone on that ship.

Even in this conditions, knowing where the suspected are, knowing that they are all in the same place and knowing that the quarantine was basically instant (duh, it's a ship), it took SIXTEEN HOURS for Japan to test and announce the test results for ONLY THIRTY-ONE people !

So, if it takes 16 hours to test 31 people and there are indeed 3800 aboard, it will take.....


81 days!!!!!

to test them all.

What is the deal with this slow dang test? Don't they have PCR's? Should be a pretty simple thing to DNA type test for this novel corona virus.

Either that crap gets fixed so it is only a matter of hours, like 2 or 3 tops for confirmation tests, or we just quit all testing and assume that everyone already has this and act accordingly.

Sorry, this is just insane. And I am not bashing the Japanese. I simply cannot believe that this is so terribly difficult to test for this virus.

Can someone let me know why it is so difficult? And whether or not you agree with me regarding time frames that would be amenable to actually constraining this virus? I mean on the testing side of the equation.

5th confirmed case in Canada.

5th case is from Vancouver. She supposedly was in contact with visitors from Wuhan staying at her home. Media not sure how she got it. lol

Anyways this is PROOF they are all lying. She got the Virus from someone and they have people in their home from Wuhan.....Yet those people ARE NOT listed as part of the infected! Maybe the tests haven't come back yet on those people? They are ALL "self quarantined"....So that means ZERO quarantine at all here in Canada as the past people have proven they go to work and spread this shit around to unsuspecting people!

Canada NOT restricting travel at all! Encouraging people to watch themselves and try to stay away from people! OMG....They are absolute IDIOTS!

Side note.....School children are NOT allowed to wear masks in school! Government response = It's up to the schools and regions to make decisions. This government is just passing the buck everywhere. (Schools fault, regions fault, Who guidelines....so their fault) This government is more worried about appearing like racists and bigots than they are about protecting the people.

So there you have it! Canada is 100% actively covering up the spread and going with WHO guidelines 100%



Video is the Latest words from Dr. Bonnie Henry, the province’s chief medical health officer in Vancouver.