LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the
northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep
convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the
center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near
65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the
2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt.

Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an
increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is
anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the
development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime
tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive
environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in
the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the
positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental
uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to
the previous forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14
kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the
past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward
Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable
steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track
is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the
strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a
bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest
ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn
northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in
the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater
weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast
is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from
the last NHC prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of
northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally
heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in
effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!​!!!!!!

Thanks Luis

never ending story...

this must be unprecedented? damn!

for easy finding

Jerry is weakening fast...

THIS IS TWO FUJIWARAS!!!

From the NHC 11 AM discussion:

Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at
15 kt. The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow
down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered
around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge. The
guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and
little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. At longer
range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane
northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on
how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had
Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed
everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before
fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably
slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as
continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even
more.