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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China

 
xBl4ckFir3x
PALADINS

User ID: 79024345
Argentina
09/01/2020 12:19 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thanks for your update DR. Here in Argentina will be bad in the next month i think (some provinces are bad now (Rio Black and Jujuy are at full ICU capacity).

I live in Capital Federal (The city of Buenos Aires) and the governor of here is opening bars, restaurants and social encounters are permited to 10 people and he wanted to open schools but the national government did not let him.

The population in the city is 3.000.000 and we have 1300 infecteds day by day, but the governor say that is a slow number, but i think that is a LOT. Out of the city (all Buenos Aires) that are 17 million people, the governor is doing well not openin nothing. But they are opposite parties, the governor of my city is a shit and i have the bad luck to live here in the city.

Now im working 1 week yes and 1 week no, but i think that in one moment i will catch the virus, lot of peoeple that i know are catching it. For example my girlfriend's brother have it and some friends of mine and my gf too.

So i expect that now with the new opens and with people here relaxing, i think that in 3 weeks o 1 month, this will be a disaster.

Last Edited by xBl4ckFir3x on 09/01/2020 12:20 PM
Leonero

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Italy
09/01/2020 12:29 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thank you for your update DR!
We were all waiting for it.


I got bad news from Italy.
Hospitalizations and ICU increased again today.

We got

+ 978 new positive cases
+ 8 deaths
+ 13 ICU (new total is 107)
+ 105 hospitalizations (new total is 1.380)

+ 300 recovered
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79070068
Brazil
09/01/2020 02:12 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
i expect total deaths to b much worse. total including deaths not directly caused by the virus such as starvation,riots,other illnesses that won't get medical care,lack of supplies including meds,etc.

in the early beginning,JAN, i did the math and came up with 1 billion dead total within 3 years WORLDWIDE. to get this i assumed the grid would stay up and function,power and water. if we lose that this # will b very low. i took the projected # for an EMP and adjusted it with the grid up than calculated that % thru the world. we still have med shortages,ppl not getting the medical care they need,ppl out of work,food shortages,etc. these will get worse. we have been very very lucky so far. the govern plan to cover up and kick the can has delayed the inevitable for now.remember when u are falling u are fine til u hit the ground.

note also, i did that prediction before we knew as much as today. there are times over the year i have thought my # is too conservative. the long term affects of the virus might delay the deaths so ppl spread the virus more.in which case the % of death rate will go way high from where it is now.

mutations have dropped the death rate down. it was running much higher 25-45% in the early months.was running 25% in the early datys in the US. as more testing has found more assymptomatics that % is much lower. but 2nd infections and long term health effects are not yet being reported well enuf to know.

stock pile and stay safe folks
 Quoting: JAZZz50


The governments are playing people like fiddles. That is clearly showing how their propaganda is at play. They’re the masters at that, so many have bought the bait. Also I think the viral loads will be like never seen before, and also the shelf life of this virus on objects. As I said, it was the back end of flu season. Wasn’t too cold here, now we have a full winter of cold temperatures ideal for keeping this thing alive and spreading it, plus the lowering of immune systems.

We should see the results very soon. I’m following the trend here in Czech. It never had a proper first wave as they closed early. Just back in august it had already exceeded its first wave peak. I can see the trend developing clearly now. The chart is poised to become a mountain in coming weeks months. Wouldn’t even like to hazard a guess as to just how many times greater this wave here will be. Not just ten or twenty times greater, more than that even. What’s happened here has bolstered DR’s predictions and data.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77153496


You start from conjectures that are interesting but unproven: 1 - The virus is a bio-weapon, 2 - It will become stronger, more deadly or more contagious. I cannot guarantee that these premises are false, but neither can I admit that they are true. Reality data is more important than hypotheses, and reality shows that a second wave is unlikely, for a simple reason: The number of people exposed to the virus is increasing due to the end of lock-downs, and yet cases and deaths have been lower. I live in São Paulo, a state in Brazil where more than 45 million people live, in the second country most affected by the virus. Total deaths in the entire state of São Paulo in the last 3 days: 08/29: 24, 08/30: 21, 08/31: 10, probably today the number of deaths will be less than 10. If the contamination curve and deaths are decreasing, even with relaxation of social isolation, how can a second wave take space? I am not saying that a second wave is impossible, I just say that it is unlikely.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
09/01/2020 02:14 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Here in Texas, our Governor is planning to make some big announcements next week to begin re-opening the State back up because the number of hospitalizations have dropped. This is the same exact thing he did back in May, then the number of cases exploded. This guy doesn't learn a thing.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77233414
France
09/01/2020 02:17 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thank you for your update DR!
We were all waiting for it.


I got bad news from Italy.
Hospitalizations and ICU increased again today.

We got

+ 978 new positive cases
+ 8 deaths
+ 13 ICU (new total is 107)
+ 105 hospitalizations (new total is 1.380)

+ 300 recovered
 Quoting: Leonero


Bad news?
What about the days when there were 5000 positive cases and 2,000 deaths ?
Caution is a good thing, always seeing the bad side of everything is a disease.
ParamedicUK

User ID: 79323857
United Kingdom
09/01/2020 03:06 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Mid October was the Uncle Doom date as well.

Time to double prep.....

UK Keep Calm Sma
CleverCreator

User ID: 79324660
09/01/2020 03:09 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Today, there are massive protests against the virus hoax.


It pleases me immensely to see that the fundamental of my model is again, proven to be true : we, the humans, are the key to this pandemic.


And my base assumption was the most of us are stupid enough to make this pandemic a civilization ending event.


Looking at what is happening today, it is clear that most of us are stupid enough, and the virus will absolutely knock-out the civilization, after mid-October.


Considering other events that will happen before the year's end, I do not see a functional society in December. I see a society that will start to break in October and November, and be fully broke before this year ends.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Yep, we are fucked.
 Quoting: The Gathering Storm



Well. Back to prepping.
 Quoting: Serenity Now


We stopped?
Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.
ParamedicUK

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United Kingdom
09/01/2020 04:14 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Never stopped but might go up a gear from 3 months stores....
Storm2come
Natural law always wins in the end

User ID: 24761162
United States
09/01/2020 04:16 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thanks for the update DR, I was dreading Sept as my son was going to start back for his college fall semester on Aug. 25th, however all of his classes emailed him and said that they were going to be online from the start (should have saved my money on the school clothes we bought).

I am trying to boost our immune systems for the fall and winter, luckily I am retired and don't have to go out and work so I only go out for food every 2 weeks or so, and to keep my preps rotating.

you said that your theory may be wrong, is it going to be worse than you think, or better?

Last Edited by Storm2come on 09/01/2020 04:17 PM
It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, It's what you know that just ain't so. -Mark Twain

Thread: Understanding the Dynamics of the CW 2 *red alert 9-17-2020 SHTF*pg 6
Thread: Partial crustal shift and the Sun / earth DOOM..*UPDATED*page12
CleverCreator

User ID: 79324660
09/01/2020 04:21 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Never stopped but might go up a gear from 3 months stores....
 Quoting: ParamedicUK


Oh my goodness man!!!!

I know I was hollering at you to do more!!! Please do!!! I kept it at it..... and still adding more, monthly.

You have a family!!!! Pitter patter!!!
Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.
Storm2come
Natural law always wins in the end

User ID: 24761162
United States
09/01/2020 04:24 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
DR, I also don't think that you will see lockdowns before Nov. 3rdin the USA, as the virus has been politicized, any lockdown attempt will be seen as trying to keep voters away from the polls, and the hoaxtards are bitching about masks already.

Last Edited by Storm2come on 09/01/2020 04:27 PM
It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, It's what you know that just ain't so. -Mark Twain

Thread: Understanding the Dynamics of the CW 2 *red alert 9-17-2020 SHTF*pg 6
Thread: Partial crustal shift and the Sun / earth DOOM..*UPDATED*page12
Gamechanger 2.0
User ID: 77153496
Czech Republic
09/01/2020 05:09 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
i expect total deaths to b much worse. total including deaths not directly caused by the virus such as starvation,riots,other illnesses that won't get medical care,lack of supplies including meds,etc.

in the early beginning,JAN, i did the math and came up with 1 billion dead total within 3 years WORLDWIDE. to get this i assumed the grid would stay up and function,power and water. if we lose that this # will b very low. i took the projected # for an EMP and adjusted it with the grid up than calculated that % thru the world. we still have med shortages,ppl not getting the medical care they need,ppl out of work,food shortages,etc. these will get worse. we have been very very lucky so far. the govern plan to cover up and kick the can has delayed the inevitable for now.remember when u are falling u are fine til u hit the ground.

note also, i did that prediction before we knew as much as today. there are times over the year i have thought my # is too conservative. the long term affects of the virus might delay the deaths so ppl spread the virus more.in which case the % of death rate will go way high from where it is now.

mutations have dropped the death rate down. it was running much higher 25-45% in the early months.was running 25% in the early datys in the US. as more testing has found more assymptomatics that % is much lower. but 2nd infections and long term health effects are not yet being reported well enuf to know.

stock pile and stay safe folks
 Quoting: JAZZz50


The governments are playing people like fiddles. That is clearly showing how their propaganda is at play. They’re the masters at that, so many have bought the bait. Also I think the viral loads will be like never seen before, and also the shelf life of this virus on objects. As I said, it was the back end of flu season. Wasn’t too cold here, now we have a full winter of cold temperatures ideal for keeping this thing alive and spreading it, plus the lowering of immune systems.

We should see the results very soon. I’m following the trend here in Czech. It never had a proper first wave as they closed early. Just back in august it had already exceeded its first wave peak. I can see the trend developing clearly now. The chart is poised to become a mountain in coming weeks months. Wouldn’t even like to hazard a guess as to just how many times greater this wave here will be. Not just ten or twenty times greater, more than that even. What’s happened here has bolstered DR’s predictions and data.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77153496


You start from conjectures that are interesting but unproven: 1 - The virus is a bio-weapon, 2 - It will become stronger, more deadly or more contagious. I cannot guarantee that these premises are false, but neither can I admit that they are true. Reality data is more important than hypotheses, and reality shows that a second wave is unlikely, for a simple reason: The number of people exposed to the virus is increasing due to the end of lock-downs, and yet cases and deaths have been lower. I live in São Paulo, a state in Brazil where more than 45 million people live, in the second country most affected by the virus. Total deaths in the entire state of São Paulo in the last 3 days: 08/29: 24, 08/30: 21, 08/31: 10, probably today the number of deaths will be less than 10. If the contamination curve and deaths are decreasing, even with relaxation of social isolation, how can a second wave take space? I am not saying that a second wave is impossible, I just say that it is unlikely.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79070068


There’s plenty out there to state that this was a bio weapon if you search. Been known for years this was coming. It has multiple purposes as is always the case with elite plans.. depopulation absolutely, so we know for sure be it second or third wave, they know they will get this result. (Conjecture here) will they release a new strain among the melee? That’s very likely, but not spoken of much here. Also the chip and payment cashless society is part of the grand plan (also known by many for years),

BUT the one area that is paramount, (I will touch on this briefly as I am always trying to stick to the topic at hand), is that martial law must be in place before the celestial object arrives. Terral black star has known for years they will release the contagion in time for arrival, to induce medical martial law.!what we saw this year was a dry run. Every May we have a closest oribital approach to this object. So this year set the scene for what will happen in likely 2021.

Global martial law and lockdown will be in place for May 2021. The months leading up to this will be lockdown. So third wave should happen in January as the first started this year, setting the scene for the same pattern of lockdown. So with that in mind we can maybe gauge what timing will they do a second lockdown? (Based on DR’s latest post) Some even suggest a lockdown throughout the winter, I don’t know about that. I’m quite sure if the second wave isn’t up there with lethality (regardless if it’s deadlier or not) the third will bring in the result. Timing was everything here and they played it absolutely perfectly.
Gamechanger 2.0
User ID: 77153496
Czech Republic
09/01/2020 05:12 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thanks very much for the update DR! Always look forward to your insight!

I have had to compromise with sending the kids back. I didn’t want to, but I’m being forced into it shall we say. I’ve delayed the going back for two weeks, in the hope that cases will rise and then this will give me something to go with. It is what it is. But awareness is everything. Thanks for the added knowledge base I’m going to see how this plays out. Take care!
Genederland

User ID: 79274149
United Kingdom
09/01/2020 05:24 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP have you even looked at: [link to swprs.org (secure)]

Think you are starting to believe what you are posting yourself it’s not at all mad max!!! Here’s the first 9 out of 30...so below the 50%

Overview

According to the latest immunological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) in the general population ranges between 0.1% and 0.5% in most countries, which is comparable to the medium influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968.

For people at high risk or high exposure (including health care workers), early or prophylactic treatment is essential to prevent progression of the disease.

In countries like the UK (with lockdown) and Sweden (without lockdown), overall mortality since the beginning of the year is in the range of a strong influenza season; mortality is higher in the USA (comparable to 1957/1968), but lower in countries like Germany and Switzerland. However, antibody values are still low in large parts of previously locked-down Europe.

In most places, the risk of death for the healthy general population of school and working age is comparable to a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.

About 80% of all people develop only mild symptoms or no symptoms. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% develop only mild symptoms. About 95% of all people develop at most moderate symptoms and do not require hospitalization.

Up to 60% of all people may already have a partial T-cell immune response against the new coronavirus due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. cold viruses). Moreover, up to 60% of children and about 6% of adults may already have cross-reactive antibodies.

The median age of Covid deaths in most Western countries is over 80 years – e.g. 84 years in Sweden – and only about 4% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. In contrast to flu pandemics, the age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.

In many countries, up to two thirds of all extra deaths occurred in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid-19 or from weeks of extreme stress and isolation.

Up to 30% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid-19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 40% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77153496
Czech Republic
09/01/2020 05:32 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Since the virus is fading into history we should consider banning all Covid threads.
The covidiots keep screaming two more weeks and the numbers keep dropping. Most of the US will meet opening guidelines soon. Hell, FL is on the list.
No mask tards clog things up with useless threads and misinformation. We get it. You’re a big fucking baby that can’t be bothered.

Ban it all.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78259568


You’ve got that backward? Same as occurred in the Spanish flu we have people who are clueless. You are dangerous in fact! The people who think like this are narcissistic. A disease far more prevalent than the actual virus itself, is retardation.
Serenity Now

User ID: 78311287
United States
09/01/2020 07:54 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Today, there are massive protests against the virus hoax.


It pleases me immensely to see that the fundamental of my model is again, proven to be true : we, the humans, are the key to this pandemic.


And my base assumption was the most of us are stupid enough to make this pandemic a civilization ending event.


Looking at what is happening today, it is clear that most of us are stupid enough, and the virus will absolutely knock-out the civilization, after mid-October.


Considering other events that will happen before the year's end, I do not see a functional society in December. I see a society that will start to break in October and November, and be fully broke before this year ends.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Yep, we are fucked.
 Quoting: The Gathering Storm



Well. Back to prepping.
 Quoting: Serenity Now


We stopped?
 Quoting: CleverCreator



Lol, no way. Just long enough to check in on this thread and the main one. ;)
Waiting for the inflection point of no return....
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 56139372
United States
09/01/2020 08:11 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I thought it important that I should read a history about the Spanish flu in more depth. Currently watching a video.

As I said previously that I’ll recap on. First wave in the Spanish flu turned up at the tail end of the flu season (same as it did this year). People dismissed it as just the flu that killed young and infirm. (Same as today).

Second wave came. Started in mid august, got going in September, then October and November really ‘kicked off’ again drawing spooky parallels Compared with today’s situation.

I saw the US had 675,000 deaths. Currently US has 187,000 deaths. Personally after a potential second and third wave to come I can see the US topping this rate. This is after taking all into consideration that I’ve learned namely in this thread.

What seemed to happen in the Spanish flu, is that the Troops spread it. Just think about how basic travel was then? Currently covid has reached the Himalayas and tribes of the Amazon and permeated every nook and cranny of the world due to modern travel. This I believe has paved the way for a potential situation far graver than the Spanish flu.

I had to pause the video i’m watching to make this post while it was fresh in my mind..

During the Spanish flu. I understand it acquired it’s name, due to the Spanish openly/honestly reporting it’s death rate, due to it being a neutral country. Of coarse the war was going on and all involved wanted to maintain the morale of their people and not to look weak to the enemy. Point being here, is that the media were ordered to downplay the severity of the virus!! Again mirroring the situation today.

So roughly in this order, is what I believe has happened today.

Release a bio weapon in the most populous country at a certain time of year, knowing it would be spread during new year celebrations.. stay hush for as long as possible about it.. downplay it at first.. keep international travel operating as long as possible to enable a broad spread globally.. then feign concern and eventually lock down (too late).. then again downplay it.. open up again, allowing for a greater spread this time within each country.. currently we are here*.. then comes the far greater second wave, and as DR has stated we know it’s more contagious, this should in turn make it more deadly filling hospitals up.. but I sense there’s a further twist, whether it be in this fall wave or the third in the early new year of 2021, in which bodies really should be lining the streets. The vaccine plan is another story, I’m just curious as to how it mutates or develops considering it is a bio weapon for population control.

Just some thoughts there.
 Quoting: Gamechanger 2.0 77153496


Add in the accelerated death rate we have with the viral treatments they didn't have back then. How would this virus have wrought havoc back then? It would be astronomically worse if we were living in a similar time with health care as it was back then.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 56139372
United States
09/01/2020 08:38 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Very interesting!


bradykinin storm


[link to elemental.medium.com (secure)]
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
09/02/2020 06:10 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Very interesting!


bradykinin storm


[link to elemental.medium.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56139372



Thank you for the link.

A really interesting read.


The theory explains most symptoms, and if clinical trials will start and show at least some partial success, we have yet another way to combat the disease.


It won't affect the spread, but it will lower the hospitalization times and ICU admissions, which is what matters.


Another theory that suggests Vitamin D is essential in fighting the disease. We can't be 100% protected against infection, but we can keep normal levels of Vitamin D, and that will help in lowering the gravity of the symptoms and lead to a faster recovery.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 09/02/2020 06:42 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77153496
Czech Republic
09/02/2020 08:08 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I thought it important that I should read a history about the Spanish flu in more depth. Currently watching a video.

As I said previously that I’ll recap on. First wave in the Spanish flu turned up at the tail end of the flu season (same as it did this year). People dismissed it as just the flu that killed young and infirm. (Same as today).

Second wave came. Started in mid august, got going in September, then October and November really ‘kicked off’ again drawing spooky parallels Compared with today’s situation.

I saw the US had 675,000 deaths. Currently US has 187,000 deaths. Personally after a potential second and third wave to come I can see the US topping this rate. This is after taking all into consideration that I’ve learned namely in this thread.

What seemed to happen in the Spanish flu, is that the Troops spread it. Just think about how basic travel was then? Currently covid has reached the Himalayas and tribes of the Amazon and permeated every nook and cranny of the world due to modern travel. This I believe has paved the way for a potential situation far graver than the Spanish flu.

I had to pause the video i’m watching to make this post while it was fresh in my mind..

During the Spanish flu. I understand it acquired it’s name, due to the Spanish openly/honestly reporting it’s death rate, due to it being a neutral country. Of coarse the war was going on and all involved wanted to maintain the morale of their people and not to look weak to the enemy. Point being here, is that the media were ordered to downplay the severity of the virus!! Again mirroring the situation today.

So roughly in this order, is what I believe has happened today.

Release a bio weapon in the most populous country at a certain time of year, knowing it would be spread during new year celebrations.. stay hush for as long as possible about it.. downplay it at first.. keep international travel operating as long as possible to enable a broad spread globally.. then feign concern and eventually lock down (too late).. then again downplay it.. open up again, allowing for a greater spread this time within each country.. currently we are here*.. then comes the far greater second wave, and as DR has stated we know it’s more contagious, this should in turn make it more deadly filling hospitals up.. but I sense there’s a further twist, whether it be in this fall wave or the third in the early new year of 2021, in which bodies really should be lining the streets. The vaccine plan is another story, I’m just curious as to how it mutates or develops considering it is a bio weapon for population control.

Just some thoughts there.
 Quoting: Gamechanger 2.0 77153496


Add in the accelerated death rate we have with the viral treatments they didn't have back then. How would this virus have wrought havoc back then? It would be astronomically worse if we were living in a similar time with health care as it was back then.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56139372


True! What concerns me today though is how it has(was allowed) to consistently spread globally to even far flung isolated places, due to plane travel, plus we have more people now.

Back in 1918 it seems it was predominantly spread by soldiers (on boats). So when we reach that critical mass (in the near future) all hospitals will be overwhelmed, which leaves us in the same situation as in 1918 technology wise. If the treatment isn’t there, it isn’t there.
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
Resident Chilean GLPer

User ID: 76933812
Chile
09/02/2020 08:46 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Very interesting!


bradykinin storm


[link to elemental.medium.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56139372



Thank you for the link.

A really interesting read.


The theory explains most symptoms, and if clinical trials will start and show at least some partial success, we have yet another way to combat the disease.


It won't affect the spread, but it will lower the hospitalization times and ICU admissions, which is what matters.


Another theory that suggests Vitamin D is essential in fighting the disease. We can't be 100% protected against infection, but we can keep normal levels of Vitamin D, and that will help in lowering the gravity of the symptoms and lead to a faster recovery.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


If one is shown how the thief’s MO, one can be sure to have countermeasures in place. I liked the analogy of the thief entering the house through and open window and then opening all doors and widows to let the rest of the gang in. It also makes one wonder how a virus can naturally get to be so darned nasty.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
xBl4ckFir3x
PALADINS

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Argentina
09/02/2020 09:15 AM

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Thread: Letter from the Argentine Society of Intensive Care to the society.
TIO JUAN

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Mexico
09/02/2020 12:51 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Dr. Thank you for the update.
Are you confidence about vaccine effectiveness in some way ?
If not, why ?
UNCLE JOHN
The Gathering Storm

User ID: 76645858
United Kingdom
09/02/2020 03:00 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP have you even looked at: [link to swprs.org (secure)]

Think you are starting to believe what you are posting yourself it’s not at all mad max!!! Here’s the first 9 out of 30...so below the 50%

Overview

According to the latest immunological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) in the general population ranges between 0.1% and 0.5% in most countries, which is comparable to the medium influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968.

For people at high risk or high exposure (including health care workers), early or prophylactic treatment is essential to prevent progression of the disease.

In countries like the UK (with lockdown) and Sweden (without lockdown), overall mortality since the beginning of the year is in the range of a strong influenza season; mortality is higher in the USA (comparable to 1957/1968), but lower in countries like Germany and Switzerland. However, antibody values are still low in large parts of previously locked-down Europe.

In most places, the risk of death for the healthy general population of school and working age is comparable to a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.

About 80% of all people develop only mild symptoms or no symptoms. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% develop only mild symptoms. About 95% of all people develop at most moderate symptoms and do not require hospitalization.

Up to 60% of all people may already have a partial T-cell immune response against the new coronavirus due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. cold viruses). Moreover, up to 60% of children and about 6% of adults may already have cross-reactive antibodies.

The median age of Covid deaths in most Western countries is over 80 years – e.g. 84 years in Sweden – and only about 4% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. In contrast to flu pandemics, the age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.

In many countries, up to two thirds of all extra deaths occurred in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid-19 or from weeks of extreme stress and isolation.

Up to 30% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid-19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 40% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.
 Quoting: Genederland


You are aware that Swiss Policy Research is not a good source? Pseudoscience, propaganda and conspiracy theories. Notorious for spreading disinformation on many subject and likely a Russian op.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
09/02/2020 03:06 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Dr. Thank you for the update.
Are you confidence about vaccine effectiveness in some way ?
If not, why ?
 Quoting: TIO JUAN



I have yet to see an effective vaccine for a coronavirus.


It's been like 40 years, and flu vaccines are basically ineffective in preventing contagion. They are effective somewhat in reducing the gravity of the symptoms...but that was after decades of developing flu vaccines.

There is no way a vaccine for Sars Cov 2 is going to be effective in any way, shape or form, for at least 10 more years.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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09/02/2020 03:11 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Spain : 8,500 new cases.


France : 7,000 new cases.



But hey, schools will be opened anyway. I can't believe that humans are that stupid, and I can't believe that what I expected to happen, is happening.


Again, if schools will still be open by the end of October, we're fuckxed.


I can bet all my money that this will happen. I no longer have any doubts that they will avoid lock-downs, and the health systems will collapse, triggering an economic and social collapse never seen before.


Lock-downs or not.
Leonero

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Italy
09/02/2020 03:45 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Spain : 8,500 new cases.


France : 7,000 new cases.



But hey, schools will be opened anyway. I can't believe that humans are that stupid, and I can't believe that what I expected to happen, is happening.


Again, if schools will still be open by the end of October, we're fuckxed.


I can bet all my money that this will happen. I no longer have any doubts that they will avoid lock-downs, and the health systems will collapse, triggering an economic and social collapse never seen before.


Lock-downs or not.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



I think that "mass psychology" too will confirm what you expect.
It's all fun and games (I am sarcastic) until "regular" flu will hit...
I mean: what will happen when seasonal flu will start to hit the population?
Early symptoms are very similar to Covid-19, so I think that the same people that now underestimate the pandemic, will go on "panic mode" and start to overwhelm hospitals thinking they got the coronavirus (thus making situation worse).

When health system will start to collapse I also guess riots will start and trust in governments will fade away on a large scale.

Last Edited by Leonero on 09/02/2020 03:46 PM
Gamechanger 2.0

User ID: 77153496
Czech Republic
09/02/2020 04:00 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Spain : 8,500 new cases.


France : 7,000 new cases.



But hey, schools will be opened anyway. I can't believe that humans are that stupid, and I can't believe that what I expected to happen, is happening.


Again, if schools will still be open by the end of October, we're fuckxed.


I can bet all my money that this will happen. I no longer have any doubts that they will avoid lock-downs, and the health systems will collapse, triggering an economic and social collapse never seen before.


Lock-downs or not.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



I think that "mass psychology" too will confirm what you expect.
It's all fun and games (I am sarcastic) until "regular" flu will hit...
I mean: what will happen when seasonal flu will start to hit the population?
Early symptoms are very similar to Covid-19, so I think that the same people that now underestimate the pandemic, will go on "panic mode" and start to overwhelm hospitals thinking they got the coronavirus (thus making situation worse).

When health system will start to collapse I also guess riots will start and trust in governments will fade away on a large scale.
 Quoting: Leonero


You’re spot on! I’m glad you mentioned that. This came to my mind. Everyone in today’s climate will want to know if they have c19 or not. Of course we know the flu always spreads well year in, year out. I can’t see how the systems will cope with the demand for so many tests alone.

Today here atm the worldometer site is showing me that here in czech we are recording a number that is the highest level ever. Normally it comes through about 6-7 o’clock. This is what I call the halfway point. When I check the morning after the numbers are refreshed and tallied for that day. Adding some to the previous number at the halfway point.

So if it at first it says 100 odd, that will be in the 200s the day after. In the 200s will after be in the 400s. Atm it’s saying into the 400s so that could go into the 6s or 8s. I can’t gauge that, as it’s never been that high, so I’m awaiting the count in the morning. Once before they deducted the tally, but this seems legit so far. Also recently they had to remake the graph/chart again to incorporate the new high numbers. I waited for that milestone. They’ll be doing it again soon.

It mostly went under the radar here on the news first wave. This time I think it could be up there leading the way in Europe. I’ve followed it everyday for months and the trend is clearly showing what is in store, just as DR has forecast. It’ll be mean when it comes.
What someone says about others.. says more about themselves..
The Gathering Storm

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United Kingdom
09/02/2020 04:34 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Lots of talk about the low death toll at this time. Are we expecting the death toll to rise dramatically in the coming weeks or will it remain low?
CLYMER

User ID: 27851969
United States
09/02/2020 07:01 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Hey DR,

Apparently CDC pushing vaccine for late Oct, early Nov. I certainly have my doubts, but do you think this will affect the outcome of Oct/Nov, or do you still think we're in for a sh**storm?





GLP