THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...COMPACT DORIAN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Well I see it going north of me which is good but my brother is in the line of fire mid state and not far from water on east coast . Thank you luisport . Just have to keep watching .

Where’s Epstein Island? Is it in the pathway?

Take care my friend!

Julie Howard • a few seconds ago
I’m in Barbados and the national shut down takes effect in 5 mins. We are to all to be off the road by 12pm.

After the center clears the Dominican Republic the storm is supposed to weaken to a ropical depression and increase speed from 14mph to around 30mph
That will help keep it from developing until it gets near the Florida coast and slows down again (or speeds up?)

00

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 57.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued by the government of St. Lucia
for St. Lucia.

The government of France has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas later
could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 57.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a
turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late
today and tonight, and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Tuesday. Dorian is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on
Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern
Windward Islands on Tuesday, and is expected to be a hurricane when
it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada
and across Dominica.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday
within the Hurricane Watch area in the Lesser Antilles. Tropical
storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by tonight or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Doom?

for shure!

204
WTNT45 KNHC 261500
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that Dorian's convective and outflow
pattern have continued to improve, with a narrow poleward outflow
channel now apparent in water vapor images. Passive microwave
imagery has shown a persistent low-level eye-like feature
along with an intermittent mid-level eyewall forming that quickly
erodes due to mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity
of 50 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates
ranging from 45 kt to 56 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and
SATCON.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. Dorian is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward today through Tuesday
night as the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge situated to its north. On Wednesday,
Dorian is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the
ridge, which could allow the cyclone to pass near or between
western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late
Thursday and Friday, all of the model guidance indicates that the
ridge will build back as an upper-level trough/low weakens and lifts
out to the north, which should result in Dorian turning back toward
the west-northwest in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The new NHC track
forecast has been nudged slightly to the right or north of the
previous one and lies close to the tightly clustered consensus
models HCCA, FSSE, TVCN, and TVCX.

The intensity forecast is less straight-forward than the track
forecast. Environmental conditions, except for the abundance of dry
mid-level air surrounding and occasionally being entrained into
Dorian's inner-core region, would favor at least steady
strengthening due to very low vertical wind shear, SSTs of at least
29C, and the small overall circulation and inner-core wind field.
The recent development of a poleward outflow channel and possible
development of an equatorward channel would also support
strengthening. However, until Dorian closes off a solid eyewall,
only slow strengthening is likely. Anticipating when an eye will
form is challenging, but Dorian could be a hurricane by the time it
reaches the Windward Islands. The intensity forecast has been
adjusted upward form the previous advisory, but is not as high as
the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models.
Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result
in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on day
5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the
Bahamas in low shear conditions. Given the unknown degree of
interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5
is of very low confidence.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday, where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane conditions are also
possible in portions of the Windward Islands, and a hurricane watch
has been issued for St. Lucia. Residents in these areas should refer
to advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.

2. Dorian is expected to produce 3 to 8 inches of rainfall from
Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals
as high as 10 inches in portions of the northern Windward Islands.

3. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall has increased
for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of Dorian and tropical storm or hurricane
watches will likely be required later today.

4. Any potential impacts from Dorian in the Bahamas and Florida
later this week are highly uncertain, given the potential for the
system to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 12.3N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 12.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 13.9N 61.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 15.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 16.4N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 19.2N 69.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...NERN HISPANIOLA
96H 30/1200Z 22.0N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 24.8N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

It sure looks that way and Puerto Rico too.

Yes, Puerto Rico and the other islands for shure. I was refering the less likely areas.

I know, right?

I'd love to see that whole place plowed underwater permanently.