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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China

 
mr. jingles

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02/12/2020 09:26 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
242 new deaths in Hubei today...!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78420351


Yes, and more 15,104 cases reported "officialy" by China.

WE ARE FUCKED!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


As I said Monday, this week is critical.


I also said watch the news, this week will be big.


Sadly, there will be more bad news by Sunday...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


More news/data will flood in tomorrow OP. You are hitting this right on the head

They are out right suppressing info. There will be a major disconnect, its already starting.
mr. jingles
ETpeace

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02/12/2020 09:40 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Read this if you want to know what we are up against

[link to phiquyenchinh.org (secure)]

Snippet:
By grafting HIV proteins into a flu virus, renegade researcher Yoshihiro Kawaoka not only increased a dormant virus’s ability to replicate but, in the process of repeating this technique in his subsequent virus research, has unleashed ruthlessly aggressive hybrids with massive killing power as seen in the unstoppable slaughter of innocents in Wuhan. The exponential expansion of the death toll in China, soon to be repeated in other countries, proves that a persistent laxity of ethical standards in the major powers, and abysmal performance of the WHO, has enabled a maniacal campaign of extermination by the heirs of Unit 731 to realize their mission of genocide. The lawless pharmaceuticals, insane vaccinators and rogue microbiologists must be stopped in their tracks or humanity will face its final solution.

By not paying attention to what these mad scientist types are doing we have allowed them to destroy us
ETpeace
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 10:20 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 10:25 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Hi GLP, from Puerto Rico, Environmental engineer, im with the Op, insides, the New Jersey cruise ship docked in Old San Juan in January 27 or 28, by that time a suicidio (suicide) happend in another cruise ship, its weird!
[link to www.wtsp.com (secure)]

That guy jump to his death!

In my case I have been through Chinkunkunya, Zika,Dengue and a couple of influenza, never vaccine, just my inmmune system, plus 5 month without power by hurricane Irma and maria!
Friends, its hard, i survive with a gas stove,i know permaculture,and construction, u need to learn many aspects of surviving, i have 4 dogs,my mother 5,AND we survive, each meal cut it by half, water by half!
Alcaline your body,i can say so much!!

This post is the best!

At this moment i started a small business selling microgreens to the restaurants in the turist area, and Im freaking!
Our airport is with th CDC, plus we have from VA hospital the best treatment for Ébola! Look for it.
Plus Puerto Rico produces a lot of medicines for the USa!
And Puerto Rico is called PuertoUtopia for criptocurrencies!plus act 20/22 for not reporting irs!
 Quoting: JibaroBoricua


Tks for your posting...
Can u provide us more details? how does you alkalinize your body? why to cut in half meals? (or is because there are few)
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 10:27 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thread: Death Projections for Coronavirus (Page 2)

*DEATH PROJECTIONS*
model to predict the death rate... acording to it... we will be done by end of 2020 60% of humanity
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 11:13 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, you show approximately a doubling every day for cases outside of China. Please explain.

If that was the case, the pandemic would have been over in China by early January. As it is, they have yet to reach the peak of the pandemic after over two months.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77706747



Why would the epidemic been over in China by early January?

Do you know when it started? Because not even the Chinese know.

In theory, the entire population of China would be infected in 1 month. Yes, in THEORY, and in perfect circumstances, in 31 days, the entire on China would be infected.

But in real world, there are thousands of reason why an epidemic might get slower or faster.

We don't know much about China in general, and Wuhan, especially. There is very possible, and highly probable that the epidemic was in Wuhan for a very long time, and I have no time or the will to write a paper on this subject.

The R0 is nothing but a theoretical value, that is used in MODELING, and not applied to the real world.

We know that Wuhan is a main transportation hub, and this is the main reason why the epidemic spread all over China, but we don't know WHEN and HOW.

When an epidemic starts, there is a patient Zero. The Patient Zero might not be contagious for DAYS...or he might be contagious after 1 minute. We DO NOT KNOW.

Same for patients 1 and 2, infected by P0 at some point. They also might become contagious after DAYS.
Again, WE DO NOT KNOW.

P0 might have been stayed indoors, with P1 and P2, his buddies, for 3-4 days, with booze and food...or all of them might have been traveling to separate destinations in day 1 : one to Shanghai, one to Beijing, and one to Shenzen.

WE DON'T KNOW.


So, yes, while in theory, in 7 days there might be 127 infected people...there might as well be only 13, or 17, or 310, depending on how contagious were the infected people, where they work (or not), how they travel, when and where, what social life they have, family size, where their family lives, where they go, etc. etc.

WE DON'T KNOW.


What we ALMOST know, is when the critical stages are reached in an epidemic, mainly when there are hundreds of CONFIRMED cases, in 2 or more locations, and when those cases were confirmed

From that point on, the models begin to get closer to reality...but the models are still far from reality. We still need to know the incubation period and how contagious are the people that are still in the incubation phase...but again, we STILL DON'T KNOW THAT.


Depending on the situation, an epidemic might take WEEKS before it reaches the stage of hundreds of confirmed cases, which would imply thousands of infected people.

This is a theoretical model for 2 weeks, where all the infected patients are equally contagious, and all of them infect another 2 people :
DAY - INFECTED
1-1
2-2
3-4
4-8
5-16
6-32
7-64
8-128
9-256
10-512
11-1,024
12-2,048
13-4,096
14-8,192

At the end of 14 days, we would have a total of 16,383 infected people.
(At the end of 31 days, we would have like 1.6 billion infected people).

Now, add in a single variable : the infected people are not contagious for 2 days.

Well...this means that it would take 28 days for the same number of 16,383 people to be infected.

Add one more variable : the incubation period is 14 days, and the infection chance for people within the incubation period is half of those that are symptomatic.

This means that we would get the same 16,383 people infected in 56 days.


Obviously, all of the examples are THEORETICAL. But you should get the idea. It HIGHLY depends how contagious people are in the incubation period, after the incubation period, where they live, travel, etc. etc.

What you and everyone else needs to understand is that there are critical stages in an epidemic.

We all know that China lies about the numbers, that is a given. But we also know that China took measures that slowed down the epidemic, mainly full lock-downs of cities (and withing those cities, lock-down of buildings and districts) and provinces and travel restrictions between cities and provinces.

All those measure matter in slowing down an epidemic that is already affecting thousands in 2 or more locations.


My model is a theoretical one, and it might be wrong, but it is closer and closer to reality the more time passes.

I can be off by several days, or even a week or two...the MAIN ISSUE is that except China, NOBODY ELSE took ANY measures to slow down the pandemic WITHIN THEIR COUNTRIES and BETWEEN THEIR COUNTRIES.

Sure, many stopped flights to China...but China didn't stopped flights to other countries. Taking the temperature in airports is completely useless. Well, let's say 99% useless. They might get 1-2 people here and there with fever or whatever.

But did anyone stopped flights between the U.S. and Germany? Or U.K. and Japan? Nope. Everyone is still happily traveling all over the fucking world and nobody is testing them...because it is IMPOSSIBLE to do it.


My model predicts a number of 200-250 million people infected at the end of February 15th. I am 100% SURE AS HELL that I am wrong, because I do not know how and when the first infected guy outside China got infected, who he infected, how contagious he was, the incubation period, where he lives, etc.etc.

But what I do know is that even if I am off by a week...this pandemic is full blown outside China, because NOBODY is stopping traveling between countries, inside countries, nobody is locking-down cities or areas in a city.

In other words, my model numbers for February 15th could be the numbers from February 7th., and there are only 550-700k infected outside China, instead 200-250 million.

Do you think THAT MATTERS even a little bit?

It matters not, because when we are in hundreds of thousands, the models are very close to reality, and instead of having 250 million infected outside China on February 15th...we will have them on February 23rd.

There are so many variables in a model, and if I would have posted THE ENTIRE MODEL I HAVE, it would be a fucking book or a 6 hours power point presentation.

And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thank You for taking the time to answer so many questions. I appreciate all of your responses and find them very informative.
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/12/2020 11:43 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Which brings us to an amazing idea...Why not transfer suspected/infected cases to cruiseships, instead of dropping people off in cities? The folks that were recently dropped off in California, should have been taken to a large cruiseship where at least the spreading stops hopefully at that point for time being until properly tested/researched.


Also, would like to thank you OP for keeping us updated with your model findings
 Quoting: TripleReiki


But a lonely prison wall,
I heard a young girl calling
Michael they have taken you away,
For you stole trevelyn's corn
So the young might see the morn,
Now a prison ship lies waiting in the bay
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 11:50 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thread: Death Projections for Coronavirus (Page 2)

*DEATH PROJECTIONS*
model to predict the death rate... acording to it... we will be done by end of 2020 60% of humanity
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78288940


1/3rd of humanity according to scriptures.
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/12/2020 11:53 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I cannot convince you that my numbers are the real ones.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Don't try. Encourage people to go out and find the truth themselves. I have a feeling this is the great culling, it's only been talked about forever. The math is truly frightening. All you have to do really is put one number in at the top right-hand corner of excel for day 1 and just put a 1 in that cell. Put your formula into the adjacent cell referencing cell A1 or A2. That is day 2, now just pull that plus sign down 60 cells. And that's just a very crude but somewhat decent estimate, all based off of the R0.
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 12:03 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, you show approximately a doubling every day for cases outside of China. Please explain.

If that was the case, the pandemic would have been over in China by early January. As it is, they have yet to reach the peak of the pandemic after over two months.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77706747



Why would the epidemic been over in China by early January?

Do you know when it started? Because not even the Chinese know.

In theory, the entire population of China would be infected in 1 month. Yes, in THEORY, and in perfect circumstances, in 31 days, the entire on China would be infected.

But in real world, there are thousands of reason why an epidemic might get slower or faster.

We don't know much about China in general, and Wuhan, especially. There is very possible, and highly probable that the epidemic was in Wuhan for a very long time, and I have no time or the will to write a paper on this subject.

The R0 is nothing but a theoretical value, that is used in MODELING, and not applied to the real world.

We know that Wuhan is a main transportation hub, and this is the main reason why the epidemic spread all over China, but we don't know WHEN and HOW.

When an epidemic starts, there is a patient Zero. The Patient Zero might not be contagious for DAYS...or he might be contagious after 1 minute. We DO NOT KNOW.

Same for patients 1 and 2, infected by P0 at some point. They also might become contagious after DAYS.
Again, WE DO NOT KNOW.

P0 might have been stayed indoors, with P1 and P2, his buddies, for 3-4 days, with booze and food...or all of them might have been traveling to separate destinations in day 1 : one to Shanghai, one to Beijing, and one to Shenzen.

WE DON'T KNOW.


So, yes, while in theory, in 7 days there might be 127 infected people...there might as well be only 13, or 17, or 310, depending on how contagious were the infected people, where they work (or not), how they travel, when and where, what social life they have, family size, where their family lives, where they go, etc. etc.

WE DON'T KNOW.


What we ALMOST know, is when the critical stages are reached in an epidemic, mainly when there are hundreds of CONFIRMED cases, in 2 or more locations, and when those cases were confirmed

From that point on, the models begin to get closer to reality...but the models are still far from reality. We still need to know the incubation period and how contagious are the people that are still in the incubation phase...but again, we STILL DON'T KNOW THAT.


Depending on the situation, an epidemic might take WEEKS before it reaches the stage of hundreds of confirmed cases, which would imply thousands of infected people.

This is a theoretical model for 2 weeks, where all the infected patients are equally contagious, and all of them infect another 2 people :
DAY - INFECTED
1-1
2-2
3-4
4-8
5-16
6-32
7-64
8-128
9-256
10-512
11-1,024
12-2,048
13-4,096
14-8,192

At the end of 14 days, we would have a total of 16,383 infected people.
(At the end of 31 days, we would have like 1.6 billion infected people).

Now, add in a single variable : the infected people are not contagious for 2 days.

Well...this means that it would take 28 days for the same number of 16,383 people to be infected.

Add one more variable : the incubation period is 14 days, and the infection chance for people within the incubation period is half of those that are symptomatic.

This means that we would get the same 16,383 people infected in 56 days.


Obviously, all of the examples are THEORETICAL. But you should get the idea. It HIGHLY depends how contagious people are in the incubation period, after the incubation period, where they live, travel, etc. etc.

What you and everyone else needs to understand is that there are critical stages in an epidemic.

We all know that China lies about the numbers, that is a given. But we also know that China took measures that slowed down the epidemic, mainly full lock-downs of cities (and withing those cities, lock-down of buildings and districts) and provinces and travel restrictions between cities and provinces.

All those measure matter in slowing down an epidemic that is already affecting thousands in 2 or more locations.


My model is a theoretical one, and it might be wrong, but it is closer and closer to reality the more time passes.

I can be off by several days, or even a week or two...the MAIN ISSUE is that except China, NOBODY ELSE took ANY measures to slow down the pandemic WITHIN THEIR COUNTRIES and BETWEEN THEIR COUNTRIES.

Sure, many stopped flights to China...but China didn't stopped flights to other countries. Taking the temperature in airports is completely useless. Well, let's say 99% useless. They might get 1-2 people here and there with fever or whatever.

But did anyone stopped flights between the U.S. and Germany? Or U.K. and Japan? Nope. Everyone is still happily traveling all over the fucking world and nobody is testing them...because it is IMPOSSIBLE to do it.


My model predicts a number of 200-250 million people infected at the end of February 15th. I am 100% SURE AS HELL that I am wrong, because I do not know how and when the first infected guy outside China got infected, who he infected, how contagious he was, the incubation period, where he lives, etc.etc.

But what I do know is that even if I am off by a week...this pandemic is full blown outside China, because NOBODY is stopping traveling between countries, inside countries, nobody is locking-down cities or areas in a city.

In other words, my model numbers for February 15th could be the numbers from February 7th., and there are only 550-700k infected outside China, instead 200-250 million.

Do you think THAT MATTERS even a little bit?

It matters not, because when we are in hundreds of thousands, the models are very close to reality, and instead of having 250 million infected outside China on February 15th...we will have them on February 23rd.

There are so many variables in a model, and if I would have posted THE ENTIRE MODEL I HAVE, it would be a fucking book or a 6 hours power point presentation.

And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 75392508
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02/13/2020 12:18 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP is right on the money:

"Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the FDA said there are “certainly cases we don’t know about” in the US and he called for expanded testing because we’re “capturing 25% of cases at best.”“We’re going to see those outbreaks start to emerge in the next two to four weeks.”

"Asha George, executive director of the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense, said there are generally seven or eight unseen cases for every known case. “It may be hundreds of thousands of cases” here ultimately, she warned.

Julie Gerberding, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said she is “very concerned about the prospects for long-term containment” and warned that “we simply don’t have the surge capacity” to handle a widespread outbreak.

Luciano Borio (former NSC) said number of actual cases is “much, much higher” than reported & “very concerning for a pandemic.” She said it is “sufficiently lethal to stress severely the health-care system” and “we need to brace ourselves for difficult weeks or months to come. …

#US #publichealth experts came before Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee today w/ worrisome warnings: The #coronavirus is probably already in US in greater numbers than we know & should show itself in clusters in the coming weeks.

Sources:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

[link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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France
02/13/2020 12:42 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I watched a TV news channel this morning dedicated to the African news. There are plenty of African countries having put hundreds people in quarantine, including Morocco and Madagascar.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 03:08 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I watched a TV news channel this morning dedicated to the African news. There are plenty of African countries having put hundreds people in quarantine, including Morocco and Madagascar.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


Any link? ?
I didn't find anything on Google
Anonymous Coward
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Thailand
02/13/2020 03:52 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045



Would be great if OP would address this comment. Basically he is saying the R0 value is spread over a period of time that is much longer than 24 hours.

You can look at it like a bank account interest rate. Not 2% daily, but 2% over a much longer period - yet the 2% figure is correct.

Is the OP compounding this infection rate daily to arrive at the model's figures?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74996941
France
02/13/2020 04:15 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I watched a TV news channel this morning dedicated to the African news. There are plenty of African countries having put hundreds people in quarantine, including Morocco and Madagascar.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


Any link? ?
I didn't find anything on Google
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78448385


I have a link with partial info in French: 167 passengers in Morrocco quarantined:

[link to www.france24.com (secure)]

But the TV news talked about other countries such as Madagascar. Here is a link about a study for Africa in French too:

[link to www.lemonde.fr (secure)]

The main countries in jeopardy are Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, followed by Nigeria and Ethiopia. But the list goes on with a dozen of other countries.
Anonymous Coward
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France
02/13/2020 04:24 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
Anonymous Coward
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France
02/13/2020 04:46 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Another link dated on Feb 13 2020 says that about 1,500 people travel from China to Africa...everyday!

[link to www.trt.net.tr (secure)]

WHO has announced that Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uguanda and Zambia are countries with HIGH RISKS due to intense air traffic with China, and especially due to very low means to control the desease spreading.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 04:56 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
There are 80.000 African students in China, including 5.000 in Wuhan (still quarantined) according to the link above.

Needless to say that there are dozens of flight from Africa to Europe and USA everyday.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 04:57 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
*flights
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 05:14 AM
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[link to www.lemonde.fr (secure)]

If no African country are among those infected by the coronavirus, 'it is not because no one is infected, but because almost no one knows how to detect it on the African continent' said Amadou Alpha Sall, General Administrator of the Institute Pasteur of Dakar (the most serious (French) lab in Africa) missioned by the African CDC for the whole continent.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 06:21 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
With all of the above, it seems that OP's first post is true:

Feb 9th : 2,384,000 /2,980,000 infected /21,960/ 27,456 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 4,400 - 5,500
Africa+India serious cases (virtually undetected because there are no kits or very few and just a couple of testing labs) 53-54% of the total : 2,376 - 2,970
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 06:25 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045


You are right. This is what OP said:

—-An epidemic model of R0 value over 4.0 might have lower numbers than a mathematical model built on an R0 of 2.2., because an epidemic model have the data from infection cycle, or hop.

I do not know if the cycle is 24 hrs, or 9 hrs...or 72 hrs. I have no idea, because such information is not available.

I chose my cycle to be 24 hrs, based on what a normal person, infected with the virus, does in 24 hrs : wakes up, goes to work and come back home.

Now, that person is asymptomatic at first, and he might or might not be contagious enough to spread the virus to other 2.4-2.6 people in 24 hrs.

He might get infected on a Friday, and he doesn't go to work on Saturday and Sunday. He might live alone. Or he have a big family...—-

Although OP is correct that there are a lot of variables (no.of contacts, how transmitted, etc), we DO know that the infectious period is something like 2 weeks give take so the R0 is the average person to person infections DURING THAT PERIOD, not in 24 hours.

The R0 is THE MOST IMPORTANT number and can create wildly different results.
MotorCityMadMan

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02/13/2020 06:32 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
bump
Drink up, Shoot in, Let the beatings begin.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/13/2020 07:01 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045


You are right. This is what OP said:

—-An epidemic model of R0 value over 4.0 might have lower numbers than a mathematical model built on an R0 of 2.2., because an epidemic model have the data from infection cycle, or hop.

I do not know if the cycle is 24 hrs, or 9 hrs...or 72 hrs. I have no idea, because such information is not available.

I chose my cycle to be 24 hrs, based on what a normal person, infected with the virus, does in 24 hrs : wakes up, goes to work and come back home.

Now, that person is asymptomatic at first, and he might or might not be contagious enough to spread the virus to other 2.4-2.6 people in 24 hrs.

He might get infected on a Friday, and he doesn't go to work on Saturday and Sunday. He might live alone. Or he have a big family...—-

Although OP is correct that there are a lot of variables (no.of contacts, how transmitted, etc), we DO know that the infectious period is something like 2 weeks give take so the R0 is the average person to person infections DURING THAT PERIOD, not in 24 hours.

The R0 is THE MOST IMPORTANT number and can create wildly different results.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278


Basically this.

Nobody knows the R0 value, it can only be estimated.


My model is a mathematical one, and it is for 6.3 billion people, those outside China.


Nobody alive can make an accurate model for this pandemic. You can gather all the experts in the world, and their model will be inaccurate...because the pandemic just started.


Thank you for answering a question that would not exists if the AC claiming that my model is inaccurate (I said myself that my model is inaccurate) would have read, like you did, the thread.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/13/2020 07:02 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 72961742
United States
02/13/2020 07:10 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Call the President demand all chinese fights be stopped
PHONE NUMBERS
Comments: 202-456-1111
Switchboard: 202-456-1414

 Quoting: Jake
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78472576
South Africa
02/13/2020 07:45 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


I picked up my parcels from Wish two days ago....so not sure where that news comes from
Zovalex

User ID: 77432258
United States
02/13/2020 07:48 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Call the President demand all chinese fights be stopped
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Comments: 202-456-1111
Switchboard: 202-456-1414

 Quoting: Jake

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72961742


It’s too late.

OP made clear we are now past the point of no return. Stopping all travel to/from China now is merely going to delay the inevitable by a few days or weeks. The infection is already here.

It is no longer a matter of “if”, but “when”.

Imagine if you knew a 30-60 day hurricane is absolutely definitely going to hit your area in 2 to 4 more weeks. You KNOW there is going to be damage and destruction, looting and panic, but you can prepare for it and likely survive the hurricane, the looting, and the panic-buying. If you aren’t prepared, your may still survive, but your odds are greatly diminished.

The good news is that those with healthy bodies and a robust immune system (and adequately stocked with supplies) may get infected but experience little or no symptoms, or may experience something similar to a bad flu. Infection does NOT mean Death.

But the point is, it’s too late to call Washington.

The infection is already here.
.
“Mental slavery is the worst form of slavery.
It gives you the illusion of freedom,
makes you trust, love, and defend your oppressor,
while making an enemy of those
who are trying to free you or open your eyes.”
-Fiyah

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“You have been programmed to resist the very person that is here to set you free, from the prison of your Mind... You are not free... everything you are has been manufactured by Minds that have not your best interest. You are imprisoned by beliefs and not reality. Religions are mental programs to imprison your Mind.”

-SOL
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 75569147
United States
02/13/2020 08:07 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


I picked up my parcels from Wish two days ago....so not sure where that news comes from
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472576


Death rates may be correct....especially if thing mutates slightly, a person loses their immunity and then get reinfected.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
02/13/2020 08:12 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thursday, February 13th, 15:00 GMT :

-8 new cases in Singapore.
-4 new cases in Japan, (NOT on the cruise ship), one of the a fatality. One of the Japan cases today is a doctor.
-10,000 people commune locked-down in Vietnam.


The day is not over yet...the week is not over yet.


Based on my model, this week is critical.


Stay close, there will be more news before this day and week is over.




As I previously stated, I expect Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to be the first after China, and this week is very important in determining where this pandemic is going.


Again, like like said yesterday, things are NOT looking good.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/13/2020 08:14 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74996941
France
02/13/2020 08:44 AM
Report Abusive Post
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


I picked up my parcels from Wish two days ago....so not sure where that news comes from
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472576


Is 'Wish' the SA state postal service? Or maybe the decision is more recent than two days ago?





GLP