COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)

Some evidence of the real level of suffering in India

https://twitter.com/_/status/1393091289013497857

Singapore lockdown

https://twitter.com/_/status/1393077807643824128

Black skank claiming lives

https://twitter.com/_/status/1393108518539079680

If he does pull the plug on opening up...

He will be unpopular with his donors and from within his own party...

https://twitter.com/_/status/1393174784721162242

That's the million dollar question right now really. I haven't seen good evidence to support a conclusion either way. Hypothetically if we assume only a small percentage is still contagious for a limited window of time and we combine that with the concept of fully vaccinated being a) mostly fully asymptomatic b) not adhering to social distancing we could be seeing a overall increase in transmission throughout the greater population.

This is hypothetical, it's hard to put numbers to this because we are talking about unknown ability to actually transmit, unknown duration of said ability and I can't really quantify the effects of the social distancing measures properly.

So there might be a risk and there may not, in my opinion there is insufficient evidence to conclude either way for the time being.

Agreed.

However ditching the reasonably decent health rules is not exactly going to help .... either way.

Yah. I am gonna continue to sit this the fuck out. The neighbors are all coughing again.... the cycle continues.

And this time the baby is.....

:crying:

Interview with Mike Osterholm on his podcast yesterday. He's one of the top epidemiologists in the U.S.


Thread starts here:

https://twitter.com/_/status/1392920966838194178

These are his views, and not necessarily mine:

He said many areas in Asia now seeing a spurt in cases. No good explanation as to why - that's just mother nature. "Don't believe anyone who has an explanation."

Seychelles - a warning.
Despite highest vaccination rate in world seeing rising cases. Not caused by poor vaccines - Sinopharm and AZ are effective. A reminder that vaccination alone may not prevent outbreaks, unless levels are very, very high

Not enough of US is vaccinated to prevent more outbreaks. 55% is not enough, Seychelles show this.
US needs to have a discussion about living with COVID.
What is acceptable? We need a strategic, chess game like response.
Flu over 10 years has killed 38k/year on average

What will we accept for COVID?
Some will want zero.
Some will want to get on with life.
Herd Immunity is not likely.
Should we accept goal is not-overwhelmed hospitals?
There are many unknowns with variants, increased transmission and immune evasion

UK's Indian Variant problem...


Cases of the new Indian variant have more than doubled for the second week in a row – with 1,313 cases confirmed – and some scientists fearing the B.1.617.2 variant will become dominant in the UK.

It has spread three times faster than previous variants of concern, according to analysis by the Telegraph.

Professor James Naismith, from the University of Oxford, said B.1.617.2 should be viewed as a country-wide problem.

"It will get everywhere," he said.

[link to www.telegraph.co.uk (secure)]

My guess is probably going to bring in localized restrictions for areas above certain case rates. But some people who are fatigued might have the attitude "Oh not this, again" and therefore may avoid going for a test, which could exacerabate the problem.

Whatever Boris decides, he would be wise to not describe it as "tiers" restrictions!

Thanks for reporting in and sorry to hear that. Hoping it turns out to be a blip rather than a new trend.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1393217669504159750

Ask Seychelles and get back to me.

Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 05/14/2021 11:02 AM

UK's week long case increase has finally been broken


Today: 2,193 new cases
Last Friday: 2,490 new cases

Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 05/14/2021 11:06 AM

if this card had been played at the very beginning, then it would have helped.now the virus and mutants are widespread.

it would also have to include isolating returning ppl from any and all countries. and a very extensive contact tracing program. will they isolate everyone or just the hot countries like INDIA and BRAZIL?

u would still see small clusters and have some spreading,since we all already have the virus everywhere. nothing says the virus in your town can't b the next mutant.

this would help get back to normal. think it is what could b acceptable as i agree the world should have this talk. it takes honest information to the public. that we don't have. contact tracing 2 weeks behind the virus won't help either.

there is a risk since we have too many groups of ppl mixing together. vax'd,infected,and clean ppl, let alone combo's of those.

with the US and UK opening up and the no mask order,i'll mnetion a risk.

we have seen mutations in Brazil and India go nutz. this being ,IMHO, a biolab created virus, it will not act normal. this virus continues to mutate and most likely will into a more lethal virus.

nothing says the next mutation won't b in our own backyards or communities. this is a great risk. what has happened in INDIA and elsewhere could happen in your town tomorrow.

as everyone walks around with no mask,expect more variants to pop up. we have several types of vaccinated ppl,infected ppl, and clean ppl. long haulers as well. we also have mixexd ppl who were vax'd and then got infected.with all these different groups, the virus too is different and will mutate again and again. 1 giant experiment.

a deadly variant could rise up and wipe out a town anywhere at any time. by the time it was known ,it would have spread thru the town.

our best bet is duck and cover. avoid ppl and wear good masks. we now have spreaders and shedders everywhere. it is a sad nightmare as Freddie could b your neighbor or own family member.

My confidence level is definitely at all time low.....

So many just don’t understand what all the pieces together mean. It’s a bit unnerving.

Most people, at least in U.S., won't have the patience for contract tracing in the long term. They just want to return to usual living behaviors no matter what the virus does.

I'm not sure contact tracing in the long term aint a solution either. Asian countries are seeing the virus spread gradually getting worse there, despite last year they were a shining example up on how to deal with the virus. They are supposed to have extensive contact tracing.

It seems the only way that is going to be effective going forward is to have strict lockdowns as soon as the virus appears. In the style of Australia, New Zealand (and China, if their numbers are to be believed). That probably isn't a long term solution though, and not workable for some countries.

So that leaves the vax to fix everything... which I have strong doubts it will.

agreed, we are not in a god spot with a good answer. what should have been done at the beginning, is too late now.

we have the man power and the govern has control to use the media to educate and explain things.problem is they failed and lied too many times.

they bet everything on the vaccine and let the virus burn thru the population. what they goina do after it is known that failed too?

i think at this moment part of the open sesame trick is to stockpile stuff for fall waves. i still wonder if the talk of open for the 4th is just talk. there are a lot of "if's" with it.course my confidence in govern has me holding my breathe from the last cyber bomb.

Saw this whataboutism idiocy on twitter. Just had to share it.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1393230198099820544

This inability to grasp how the pieces fit..... it’s going to be sad.

Yep. And if variants regularly start emerging from selection pressure in the vaccinateds then they probably won't be able to give out new vaccinations in time to stop waves for each upcoming winter in future years. We'll have to wait until fall/winter to see if there's a chance of that happening though.