Hurricane Humberto: Humberto is now a MAJOR HURRICANE, a Category 3 with 120mph sustained winds. Hurricane warning for Bermuda NOW!!!p14

Thank you so much Luis. This is such an important thread especially with recovery efforts going on in the Bahamas.

Thank you so much Luis. This is such an important thread especially with recovery efforts going on in the Bahamas.

Catastrophic world wide impact again, euhhhhmmmm
All models are wrong again....
Slam Florida as a nightmarish scenario again...

This anomalous ridge has implications beyond unusual warmth in the Eastern US. By inducing an easterly steering flow, any approaching tropical cyclone would be less likely to recurve, with a heightened potential to affect land including the US. Not an encouraging sign.

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Do I need to evacuate Texas now?

More Texas kids in elementary school now are of minority extraction than non-Hispanic Caucasian extraction. (California is already majority Minority)

For those of you who keep saying make Texas INDEPENDENT ... remember Mexican American will be the largest group in Texas LONG BEFORE 2050. Whites in Texas will be approaching the same percentage as Blacks in Texas long before the end of the century.

A threat to the Lesser Antilles: 94L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave located at 8 am EDT Saturday about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands (94L) was headed west at about 12 mph. This system has the potential to be trouble for the Lesser Antilles in about a week.

Satellite images on Saturday afternoon showed that 94L had a high amount of spin, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had increased considerably since Friday. The relatively limited heavy thunderstorm activity was due to dry air, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis.

The 6Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that the atmosphere in front of 94L would have favorable conditions for development, though, with low wind shear, sea surface temperatures of 28 – 29°C (82 – 84°F), and a mid-level relative humidity near 60%. Dry air will continue to inhibit development over the next two days until 94L can generate enough heavy thunderstorm activity to moisten the atmosphere. The low shear will aid this process.

Despite the overall favorable environment for 94L, dynamical models are generally giving the system a thumbs-down. The 0Z and 6Z Saturday runs of our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET—all showed less support for development than their runs on Friday. Nearly all members of the 0Z ensemble runs of the GFS and European models showed 94L dissipating over the next week, well before it would threaten any land areas.

The wave is predicted to take a track just south of due west over the coming week, and 94L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a named storm as early as September 14. However, recurvature into the open central Atlantic is also a good possibility should 94L develop. In their 2 pm EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 50%, respectively—a 20% drop from the odds given on Friday. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Humberto.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, never-say-die Tropical Storm Gabrielle is holding its own after having been reclassified as a post-tropical cyclone at 5 am EDT Friday, then re-reclassified as a tropical storm six hours later. Gabrielle may yet become a minimal hurricane as it traverses the central Atlantic early next week, posing no threat to land.

Dr. Jeff Masters co-wrote this post.
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More death and destruction to Florida like Dorian?

no one knows for now...that's why we are following it.

ridge doom - no way out

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