COVID* STANDFORD MASK STUDY---Elsevier journal to retract widely debunked masks study whose author claimed a Stanford affiliation p345

Look, I am no alarmist, but being a pacifist is as bad as an alarmist


Look at the recovered to deaths. That usnt good.

Many in the infected will both die and live and the recovered will begin to outnumber better once they get the infected more under control and they are not swamped. But as of right it is hell on earth and if you get it right now and need a bed you are almost 50/50 on living or dying

Peolle need to stop marginalizing this. Damnint start taking it seriously. People who don't and think this is some joke or "low CFR" with out thinking what they mean in the the big picture (means nothing on real life terms except a number) will put others in danger with inaction.

The real danger arent those who are proposing themselves to avoid contact and socializing due to fear or concern, but those who dont.

Morning All

Dont trust anything out of that state

Snakes

Have an engineer, math is his thing, saying exactly what you’re saying. Thing is I don’t give a flying fart about population. I care how many are positive, recovered and passed. We are at the beginning of this. Not one of us, right now, know how many in populace is/will be infected.

Perhaps you misunderstood my post.... Im correcting an inaccuracy.... pure and simple...and also done respectful

Here is a question.... do you think that a CFR of 7.16 is low?? Well its not..... its god damn alarmingly high.

Case Fatality Rate-CFR

CFR is deaths/resolved. resolved is deaths plus recovered

so 1266/2705=0.468 or 46.8%


what's it called when you divide deaths by confirmed sick?

Thanks for this thread. It's my go-to place when I'm too busy to read all of GLP

You dont include resolved...


CFR is this....

In epidemiology, a case fatality rate (CFR) — sometimes called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio — is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed with the disease for a certain period of time.

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Thread: CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Apparently I'm wrong. You are correct.

Thanks for correcting me. Has this definition changed in the last 5 years?

Add Fairbanks, Alaska, even tho Alaska has 1 case only discovered today when a Chinese National showed up on an incoming cargo flight to Anchorage. Apparently cargo flights from China still oncoming.

No problem.... Full respect to what you are doing.... There is SO much spurious crap from other posters and things get misunderstood.... Just consider I have peer reviewed...lol

Keep up the good work 5*

[link to bnonews.com (secure)]

14 March

11:40: 521 new cases and 3 new deaths in Spain. (Source)
11:27: 1,365 new cases and 97 new deaths in Iran. (Source 1, Source 2, Source 3)
11:00: 83 new cases in Germany. (Source)
04:30: 25 new cases in Florida, United States. (Source)
03:01: 1 new case in Oklahoma, United States. (Source)
02:36: First case in the U.S. Virgin Islands. (Source)
02:20: 1 new case in Wyoming, United States. (Source)
02:12: 1 new case in New Hampshire, United States. (Source)
02:00: China’s National Health Commission reports 7 new cases across the mainland, excluding Hubei province. All 7 were imported: 4 in Shanghai, 2 in Gansu, and 1 in Beijing. (Source)
02:00: 4 new cases and 13 new deaths in Hubei province, China. (Source)
01:42: 1 new death in the Philippines. (Source)
01:25: 1 new case in Puerto Rico. (Source)
01:16: 1 new case in Nebraska, United States. (Source)
01:11: First 4 cases in Montana, United States. (Source)
01:06: 107 new cases and 5 new deaths in South Korea. (Source)
00:57: 3 new cases in Kentucky, United States. (Source)
00:35: First 2 cases in Puerto Rico. (Source)
00:59: 9 new cases in Michigan, United States. (Source)
00:18: First case in Idaho, United States. (Source)
00:16: 11 new cases in British Columbia, Canada. (Source)

13 March

23:56: 49 new cases and 1 new death in California, United States. (Source)

[link to www.cnn.com (secure)]

Planes turn around mid-air because of flight restrictions

British travel company Jet2 has canceled all flights to mainland Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.

The company said on Saturday the cancellations were in response to local measures introduced by the Spanish government.

At least five Jet2 flights from the United Kingdom to Malaga and Alicante in Spain were turned around mid-air on Saturday, according to data obtained by Flightradar24, after the airline confirmed it would be cancelling all flights to Spain “with immediate effect.”

“We have taken the decision to cancel all flights to Mainland Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands with immediate effect,” a Jet2 spokesman confirmed to CNN in a statement, asserting that the health and safety of customers is the airline’s “number one” priority.

On Thursday, the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez declared a 15-day state of emergency over the coronavirus pandemic. Daily life has been severely restricted in several Spanish provinces and cities, with large gatherings cancelled, restaurants shut and beaches closed to public.

[link to www.cnn.com (secure)]

Headlines from the last 8 hours:



Czechs shut restaurants, pubs and most shops amid outbreak


India declares a "a notified disaster"


Millions of students out of schools in the US


Italy shuts down most civilian flights


There are more than 142,000 cases worldwide

There are now more than 142,000 coronavirus cases globally and more than 5,300 related deaths, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization.

Here's the latest breakdown:

Total cases: 142,320
Deaths: 5,388
Countries or territories with cases: 129


US hospitals aren't prepared for coronavirus pandemic, experts warn


Test kits are "no longer available" in parts of Australia, health chief says


More church members test positive in Washington, DC, as hundreds self-quarantine

[link to www.cnn.com (secure)]

Apple is closing every store outside greater China until March 27


Apple will close all its stores worldwide -- except those in greater China -- until March 27, CEO Tim Cook said in a tweet today.

The company has also committed $15 million to help with the global coronavirus outbreak.

All of Apple's stores in greater China have reopened after being closed for much of the past two months, while the region grappled with the coronavirus outbreak.

Apple employees worldwide will begin to work remotely where possible, while all sites will undergo deep cleaning and health screenings. Hourly workers will continue to be paid.

Customers can still shop on the Apple website, or get customer support online.

[link to www.cbc.ca (secure)]

11 new cases of COVID-19 detected in B.C., bringing total to 64

B.C. has detected 11 new cases of COVID-19, bringing the province's total to 64, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry announced Friday.

That includes an outbreak at Lions Gate Hospital in North Vancouver, where three administrative staff members have tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

"They are not people who had patient contact and measures have been taken at LGH to make sure that everything can be done as safely as possible there," Henry told a news conference.

[link to www.researchgate.net (secure)]

Estimates of the Demand for Mechanical Ventilation in the United States During an Influenza Pandemic


Abstract

An outbreak in China in April 2013 of human illnesses due to avian influenza A(H7N9) virus provided reason for US public health officials to revisit existing national pandemic response plans. We built a spreadsheet model to examine the potential demand for invasive mechanical ventilation (excluding "rescue therapy" ventilation).

We considered scenarios of either 20% or 30% gross influenza clinical attack rate (CAR), with a "low severity" scenario with case fatality rates (CFR) of 0.05%-0.1%, or a "high severity" scenario (CFR: 0.25%-0.5%).

We used rates-of-influenza-related illness to calculate the numbers of potential clinical cases, hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care units, and need for mechanical ventilation. We assumed 10 days ventilator use per ventilated patient, 13% of total ventilator demand will occur at peak, and a 33.7% weighted average mortality risk while on a ventilator.

At peak, for a 20% CAR, low severity scenario, an additional 7000 to 11,000 ventilators will be needed, averting a pandemic total of 35,000 to 55,000 deaths.
A 30% CAR, high severity scenario, will need approximately 35,000 to 60,500 additional ventilators, averting a pandemic total 178,000 to 308,000 deaths.

Estimates of deaths averted may not be realized because successful ventilation also depends on sufficient numbers of suitably trained staff, needed supplies (eg, drugs, reliable oxygen sources, suction apparatus, circuits, and monitoring equipment) and timely ability to match access to ventilators with critically ill cases. There is a clear challenge to plan and prepare to meet demands for mechanical ventilators for a future severe pandemic.



COmments from crofsblog:

[link to afludiary.blogspot.com (secure)]

Worth noting, the `severe' scenario presented - a 30% attack rate and a CFR of .5% - is nowhere near the severity we've already seen with COVID-19. Even if the attack rate remained at 30%, we'll be lucky to see a 1% CFR from this virus.

But even this optimistic scenario finds that - without the unlikely rapid addition of 35,000 to 60,500 ventilators (and trained staff, oxygen, drugs, and electricity to run them) - 200,000 to 300,000 Americans that might otherwise be saved, would die for the lack of ventilator resources.

[snip]

If we can stretch an 8 week pandemic wave into 16 or 20 weeks, we can can cut down the number of patients who will be denied an ICU bed or ventilator substantially, and in doing so, save lives.

But even so, unless we get very lucky, some very tough triage decisions lie ahead - both here in the United States - and around the world.

And we are going to have to get used to that reality.

Thread: CDC Alert Level 2, 3 CDC Travel Health Notices Global COVID-19 Outbreak Notice

Thank you!

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
Draft decree says lockdown in Spain would start on Monday morning, according to local media. People would only be allowed to go out to buy basic needs or to go to work. Press conference in 35 minutes (1400 GMT)

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
BREAKING: Spain preparing for nationwide lockdown to stop the spread of coronavirus, according to draft decree - El Pais

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

FluTrackers.com Retweeted
Gert van der Hoek
@GertvanderHoek
Iran, today's official reports:

Cases: 12,729 (+1365)

Deaths: 611 (+97)

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

luTrackers.com Retweeted
Gert van der Hoek
@GertvanderHoek
Belgium reports 4th #coronavirus #COVID19 dead and 133 new cases, total to 689 cases.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

FluTrackers.com Retweeted
Gert van der Hoek
@GertvanderHoek
Germany - 83 new #coronavirus #COVID19 cases reported. Total to 3,758, incl. 8 deaths. As of march 14, 12 pm

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

FluTrackers.com Retweeted
Gert van der Hoek
@GertvanderHoek
Spain - Current situation regarding #coronavirus #COVID19

Figures at 11.30am on 03/14/2020

5,753 confirmed cases

1,519 new cases

136 deaths

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Gert van der Hoek
@GertvanderHoek
#Coronavirus #COVID19 France, message from MOH: Taking anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen, cortisone, ...) could be a factor in worsening the infection.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

We knew about steroids. But ibuprofen too? ugh. let me look in to this more.

[link to flutrackers.com (secure)]

Here's the flutrackers thread on it. No real info here except a couple tweets.


Via Twitter a message from Minister of Health Olivier Véran:

Taking anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen, cortisone, ...) could be a factor in worsening the infection. If you have a fever, take paracetamol.
If you are already on anti-inflammatory drugs or in doubt, ask your doctor for advice.

h/t [link to twitter.com (secure)]


paracetamol is acetaminophen in the US. Tylenol.

[link to bnonews.com (secure)]

14 March

13:42: 155 new cases and 2 new deaths in the Netherlands. (Source)
13:05: 88 new cases and 55 new deaths in Spain. (Source)
12:00: 195 new cases in Germany. (Source)
11:40: 521 new cases and 3 new deaths in Spain. (Source)

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


Ronan Kelly
@RonanKelly13

USA: 51 reported #COVID19 #Coronavirus fatalities as follows;
California: 6
Colorado: 1
Florida: 3
Georgia:1
Kansas 1
New Jersey: 1
South Dakota:1
Washington 37