COVID* STANDFORD MASK STUDY---Elsevier journal to retract widely debunked masks study whose author claimed a Stanford affiliation p345

Mexico extends STFH until May 30

[link to www.cnn.com (secure)]

Facebook cancels large in-person events through June 2021

Facebook is canceling all of its planned physical events with 50 or more people through June 2021 due to concerns about the coronavirus pandemic.

Ohio- 21% of cases are health care workers

Wisconsin extends STFH order to May 26

The order will allow certain activities to ramp up again, including:

Public libraries
Golf courses
Non-essential businesses can do mailings, delivery and curbside pickup
Arts and crafts stores
Optional exterior work like lawn care or construction

Coronavirus at Smithfield pork plant: The untold story of America's biggest outbreak

[link to www.bbc.com (secure)]

Just read it.

Smithfeilds should be fined big time. Im not going to go all political but oh boy lots going in my mind after reading the Article.

Even if of no consequence, it’s worth noting that China’s official deaths due to SARS CoV2 were updated adding 1290 “previously un accounted” from Wuhan.

We will probably never know the true death toll, but I think also that this is the way of CCP to acknowledge and divert the pressure and demands for transparency.

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

Abstract

Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

[link to talkingpointsmemo.com (secure)]

The news is not great, though there are certainly many different ways of defining ‘good’ or ‘bad’ news in this case. The study found that 1.5% of people in the study were seropositive; adjusted for demographic weighting the number was 2.81%.

This is widely suspected and only a testimony of how contagious it is, and how variable the effects on people are. Also probably points out to an earlier start of the contagion and a initial confounding factor between flu and COVID deaths.

[link to www.cnn.com (secure)]

WHO says no evidence antibody tests can determine immunity

The World Health Organization has warned there is no evidence to suggest the presence of antibodies in blood can determine whether someone has immunity to the coronavirus.

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s executive director for health emergencies, said Friday there was no indication so far that a large proportion of the population had developed immunity.

“There’s been an expectation, maybe, that herd immunity may have been achieved and that the majority of people in society may already have developed antibodies. I think the general evidence is pointing against that... so it may not solve the problem the governments are trying to solve.”

The number of recovered coronavirus patients who have retested positive for the virus has raised concerns about how antibodies work in response to Covid-19.

While scientists say there is no evidence yet that a person who has retested positive can spread the virus further, there haven’t been any conclusive studies to rule that out.

Professor Chris Dye, of the Oxford Martin School at Britain's University of Oxford, said substantial work to develop accurate antibody tests for coronavirus infection was ongoing.

“The WHO are right to highlight that any antibody test, if we get one, won’t be able to definitely say whether someone is immune to the infection, because we just don’t know enough yet about how immunity works with Covid-19," he told the Science Media Centre.

Such tests would need to be sensitive enough to ensure that infections were not missed, and specific enough to be confident that a positive result is correct, he said.

"Before an antibody test can be used to indicate that someone is immune to further infection, the level of protection must be demonstrated in experimental trials," Dye added.

nothing important to say except I had to go to store. I wore a mask and gloves and carried a wet cloth in a plastic bag with hospital grade cleaner. To clean my hands every 2 seconds.
I would say 95% of the people were not wearing mask and there was NO tp.

Well here is another symptom. Covid toe is what they are calling it.
[link to www.today.com (secure)]


Of the 90 to 100 reports from the first week, Freeman said nearly half addressed patients with purple lesions on feet or hands. For some but not all patients, it was the only symptom

Also this about a autopsy on 2 patients in OK. Someone smarter then me needs to look at it though.

[link to academic.oup.com (secure)]

bump

[link to monotreme1000.wordpress.com (secure)]

Monotremes new blog

Hey Water - remember you from the Ebola thread. So sorry you missed your trip.

Hey folks. I haven't been able to post much the last few days, my dad passed thursday evening. I may or may not get back to it at some point, but right now I'm just burned out on everything.

Thanks for all the support, on the thread, and via PMs. I appreciate it.

When I come across something important, I'll try to get it in here.

Stay safe, everyone. I think we are just getting out of the starting blocks. It's going to be a long summer.

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

Quantifying the effect of quarantine control in Covid-19 infectious spread using machine learning


In the case of the US, our model captures well the current infected curve growth and predicts a halting of infection spread by 20 April 2020. We further demonstrate that relaxing or reversing quarantine measures right now will lead to an exponential explosion in the infected case count, thus nullifying the role played by all measures implemented in the US since mid March 2020.

Really sorry to hear of your father's passing, Naughty. No matter how much we prepare, we are never ready for this moment. Just ride the wave, and know that you'll be back on solid ground soon.

Our mixed model analysis for USA, employing Q(t)learnt from the models of Wuhan, Italy and South Korea in the USA model starting from 1 April2020, reveals that stronger quarantine policies (Figure 10b) might lead to an accelerated plateauing in the infected case count, as shown in Figure 10a, and subsequently smaller infected case count. On the other hand, in agreement with National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases estimates (Miller 2020), we forecast that relaxing or abandoning the quarantine policies gradually over the period of the next 17 days may well lead to∼1 million infections without any stagnation in the infected case count (Figure 10a) by mid April 2020.

Oh NB, Im so very sorry .

The problem is that the model is flawed.

It assumes the virus started early this year(Jan 24th) not the middle or end of last year.

So it is worthless!

Huge hugs & prayers.

I'm completely speechless. You have been so generous keeping this important thread ongoing.



Hoping your pain and the pain of your family can find solace in remembering the good moments you shared with him.

Prayers sent.

Sorry about your dad Nawty. I hope you can find some peace in this crazy time.

Things are still low here in Maine, I would say 75% of people at stores are wearing some form of masks.

I'm spending my days working on clearing land and putting together raised beds.

Very sorry to hear of your loss, NB. Prayers for you and your family through this difficult time.

Sex workers struggle: After some controversy, sex workers in Japan are now eligible to apply for financial aid from the government, under certain conditions — a move some activists have hailed as a sign of progress for an industry that has long suffered social stigma. But sex workers say it's not enough to live on.


whew. i was worried.

[link to www.biorxiv.org (secure)]

SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted via contact and via the air between ferrets.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2, a coronavirus that newly emerged in China in late 2019 and spread rapidly worldwide, caused the first witnessed pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. As the pandemic progresses, information about the modes of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among humans is critical to apply appropriate infection control measures and to slow its spread. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted efficiently via direct contact and via the air (via respiratory droplets and/or aerosols) between ferrets. Intranasal inoculation of donor ferrets resulted in a productive upper respiratory tract infection and long-term shedding, up to 11 to 19 days post-inoculation. SARS-CoV-2 transmitted to four out of four direct contact ferrets between 1 and 3 days after exposure and via the air to three out of four independent indirect recipient ferrets between 3 and 7 days after exposure. The pattern of virus shedding in the direct contact and indirect recipient ferrets was similar to that of the inoculated ferrets and infectious virus was isolated from all positive animals, showing that ferrets were productively infected via either route. This study provides experimental evidence of robust transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via the air, supporting the implementation of community-level social distancing measures currently applied in many countries in the world and informing decisions on infection control measures in healthcare settings.