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UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387

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djdandew1

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06/14/2014 03:52 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Live stream Ukraine's embassy in Moscow

[link to m.ustream.tv]
“This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.” General Wesley Clark
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
@Black_Bomb 4m
Right now - Molotov cocktails delivered to the Russian embassy in Kiev!!!
 Quoting: djdandew1


is it only security personnel on site ?

and are they only Ukrainian
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Live stream Ukraine's embassy in Moscow

[link to m.ustream.tv]
 Quoting: djdandew1


They are starting fires n shit now....doom on no shit.
Falter

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06/14/2014 03:55 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Citizen of EU ‏@wavetossed 6 min
#Lugansk airport, 1500 men of Dnepropetrovsk motor brigade opened fire on Lviv brigade. After an intense firefight they raised Russian flag
"When the rich wage war, it's the poor who die."
-Jean Paul Sartre

"In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
-Ernest Hemingway

"China is a sleeping giant, Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."
-Napoleon Bonaparte

"Streets of Leningrad taught me one thing - if fight is inevitable, throw the first punch."
-Vladimir Putin

World War 3 prediction: Summer 2020.
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06/14/2014 03:56 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Can one of the regulars summarize the last few days for me? I've been so busy tracing events in Iraq that I've lost track of what's going on in Ukraine.

Cheers
 Quoting: The_Original_Mind


I ve been away for a bit too but when I was here there had been reports of Russian T-72's about 3 of them crossing into Ukraine which I later think turned out to be some captured T-64's Ukrainian MBT's,

Also yesterday there was a UA APC that crossed into Russia chasing a Vehicle


a UA Helo went down after being shot at in Ukraine but reports of what I had seen had said the Helo landed in Russia

Sorry its a bit sketchy buddy been at job interviews all week
 Quoting: Anderson_G


Thanks mate. I'm gathering from the latest round of posts that, basically, Ukrainian and Russian vehicles and aircraft have been crossing the border back and forth, that there's been an exchange of fire, that a Ukrainian transport plane was brought down in the east, and that the Russian embassy in Kiev has been breached.

So, I think now would be a good time to repost my prediction from 4/16. I think we've reached the trigger-point and, unless something changes, can expect a Russian invasion of Ukraine soon, or at the very least Russian annexation of East Ukraine (Novorossiya).

(By the way, good luck with the interviews.)

---

My take:

1) Russia won't invade UA any time soon. [CORRECT]

2) Russia WILL support the resistance in East UA, whether it's a pro-Russian resistance or a Right Sector resistance. Anything that destabilizes UA. [CORRECT]

3) UA's failure to deal with the revolt using small-scale means (i.e. what they're doing now) will force UA to deploy significant forces to quell the revolt. [CORRECT]

4) Hence, Russia will draw UA into a bitter and messy battle in the east, similarly drawing UA's attention and logistics into that region. It's a basic chess stategy: encourage the enemy to commit to a particular region of the board using your pawns, while arranging your key pieces for a later strike. [CORRECT]

5) Increased UA army deployment will (i) encourage more uprisings, (ii) encourage more defections. [CORRECT - In fact, Ukrainian action pushed the eastern provinces to break away, forming Novorossiya]

6) At this point, expect increased domestic strife in West UA. [CORRECT]

7) With UA focused on the east and destabilized by riots in the west, expect a trigger event. This could be as simple as the UN refusing to deploy peacekeeping forces, as dramatic as a bombing of a civilian target. [PLAUSIBLY CORRECT - During the past week, Ukrainian and Russian military vehicles and planes have engaged in cross-border combat, and today (6/14) Ukrainian civilians have besieged and breached the Russian embassy in Kiev, prompting Russia to call another UN Security Council meeting]

8) Russia will then launch the CLASSIC Zhukov Maneuver: A pincer attack from Crimea and Senkovka, tracing a line along the Dnieper. Russia will then advance into East UA toward Kharkiv and Donetsk, with paratroopers seizing key stations in the eastern region, including taking operational command of militia forces, particularly in Sloviansk and Mariupol. The objective will be, therefore, threefold: (i) secure the Dnieper; (ii) secure the key communication, transportation, and logistical spots in the east; (iii) encircle Kiev. These three objectives, if achieved, will render UA unable to fight without Western support. [WAITING]

9) Expect small-scale special forces operations to seize Odessa and possibly link up with Moldova.

Timeline? Maybe a couple of weeks to 3 months from now to begin. [CORRECT - There has been no early Russian invasion. The question: will Russian invade by 7/16?] By July, the US will be deep into its political campaigning season. [Note: American MSM is already focusing on electoral squabbles, such as the Eric Cantor debacle and Obama's response to the Iraq Crisis] Also, the later Russia can start their attack, the less time the West will have to retaliate, due to the advent of autumn rains and winter snow in the region. Importantly, Putin doesn't want to overplay his hand. He has Crimea. But he could lose it if he isn't careful. He is patient, but decisive like the chess master he is. He has a plan, and when conditions are such that he can implement it, he will. He's playing an emotional game right now, banking (successfully) on the frustration and hesitation of the Ukrainians to undermine their own nascent state. [CORRECT - Ukraine has totally undermined their position. They have lost the east, have no hope of regaining Crimea, and have pushed the pro-Russians into Russia's arms. NATO hasn't come to Ukraine's aid and Russia has abandoned the dollar. NATO sanctions have had no effect on Russia and, in fact, Russia's economy is booming.]

(Original: Thread: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387 (Page 2604)
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
it's really stupid from Russia attacking ukrainian embassy in Moscow, those diplomats aren't guilty at all, start attacking the pricks in Kiev
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06/14/2014 03:59 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 5 min
NETANYAHU SAYS ARMY INSTRUCTED TO PREPARE FOR ANY SCENARIO
 Quoting: Falter


RU or UKR army?
See ya! Also my English could be worse than real SHTF.

"The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off."
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06/14/2014 04:00 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
it's really stupid from Russia attacking ukrainian embassy in Moscow, those diplomats aren't guilty at all, start attacking the pricks in Kiev
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9827179


The entire west could in solidarity to ukraine now march against russian embassies.
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 5 min
NETANYAHU SAYS ARMY INSTRUCTED TO PREPARE FOR ANY SCENARIO
 Quoting: Falter


RU or UKR army?
 Quoting: DarkFounder


another do

Israel man!
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
it's really stupid from Russia attacking ukrainian embassy in Moscow, those diplomats aren't guilty at all, start attacking the pricks in Kiev
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9827179


Nobody attacking it, until now they just demonstrate
Falter

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06/14/2014 04:03 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 5 min
NETANYAHU SAYS ARMY INSTRUCTED TO PREPARE FOR ANY SCENARIO
 Quoting: Falter


RU or UKR army?
 Quoting: DarkFounder


My bad, wrong thread again..
"When the rich wage war, it's the poor who die."
-Jean Paul Sartre

"In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
-Ernest Hemingway

"China is a sleeping giant, Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."
-Napoleon Bonaparte

"Streets of Leningrad taught me one thing - if fight is inevitable, throw the first punch."
-Vladimir Putin

World War 3 prediction: Summer 2020.
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06/14/2014 04:07 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Citizen of EU ‏@wavetossed 6 min
#Lugansk airport, 1500 men of Dnepropetrovsk motor brigade opened fire on Lviv brigade. After an intense firefight they raised Russian flag
 Quoting: Falter


bsflagbsflagbsflag
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06/14/2014 04:14 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Can one of the regulars summarize the last few days for me? I've been so busy tracing events in Iraq that I've lost track of what's going on in Ukraine.

Cheers
 Quoting: The_Original_Mind


I ve been away for a bit too but when I was here there had been reports of Russian T-72's about 3 of them crossing into Ukraine which I later think turned out to be some captured T-64's Ukrainian MBT's,

Also yesterday there was a UA APC that crossed into Russia chasing a Vehicle


a UA Helo went down after being shot at in Ukraine but reports of what I had seen had said the Helo landed in Russia

Sorry its a bit sketchy buddy been at job interviews all week
 Quoting: Anderson_G


Thanks mate. I'm gathering from the latest round of posts that, basically, Ukrainian and Russian vehicles and aircraft have been crossing the border back and forth, that there's been an exchange of fire, that a Ukrainian transport plane was brought down in the east, and that the Russian embassy in Kiev has been breached.

So, I think now would be a good time to repost my prediction from 4/16. I think we've reached the trigger-point and, unless something changes, can expect a Russian invasion of Ukraine soon, or at the very least Russian annexation of East Ukraine (Novorossiya).

(By the way, good luck with the interviews.)

---

My take:

1) Russia won't invade UA any time soon. [CORRECT]

2) Russia WILL support the resistance in East UA, whether it's a pro-Russian resistance or a Right Sector resistance. Anything that destabilizes UA. [CORRECT]

3) UA's failure to deal with the revolt using small-scale means (i.e. what they're doing now) will force UA to deploy significant forces to quell the revolt. [CORRECT]

4) Hence, Russia will draw UA into a bitter and messy battle in the east, similarly drawing UA's attention and logistics into that region. It's a basic chess stategy: encourage the enemy to commit to a particular region of the board using your pawns, while arranging your key pieces for a later strike. [CORRECT]

5) Increased UA army deployment will (i) encourage more uprisings, (ii) encourage more defections. [CORRECT - In fact, Ukrainian action pushed the eastern provinces to break away, forming Novorossiya]

6) At this point, expect increased domestic strife in West UA. [CORRECT]

7) With UA focused on the east and destabilized by riots in the west, expect a trigger event. This could be as simple as the UN refusing to deploy peacekeeping forces, as dramatic as a bombing of a civilian target. [PLAUSIBLY CORRECT - During the past week, Ukrainian and Russian military vehicles and planes have engaged in cross-border combat, and today (6/14) Ukrainian civilians have besieged and breached the Russian embassy in Kiev, prompting Russia to call another UN Security Council meeting]

8) Russia will then launch the CLASSIC Zhukov Maneuver: A pincer attack from Crimea and Senkovka, tracing a line along the Dnieper. Russia will then advance into East UA toward Kharkiv and Donetsk, with paratroopers seizing key stations in the eastern region, including taking operational command of militia forces, particularly in Sloviansk and Mariupol. The objective will be, therefore, threefold: (i) secure the Dnieper; (ii) secure the key communication, transportation, and logistical spots in the east; (iii) encircle Kiev. These three objectives, if achieved, will render UA unable to fight without Western support. [WAITING]

9) Expect small-scale special forces operations to seize Odessa and possibly link up with Moldova.

Timeline? Maybe a couple of weeks to 3 months from now to begin. [CORRECT - There has been no early Russian invasion. The question: will Russian invade by 7/16?] By July, the US will be deep into its political campaigning season. [Note: American MSM is already focusing on electoral squabbles, such as the Eric Cantor debacle and Obama's response to the Iraq Crisis] Also, the later Russia can start their attack, the less time the West will have to retaliate, due to the advent of autumn rains and winter snow in the region. Importantly, Putin doesn't want to overplay his hand. He has Crimea. But he could lose it if he isn't careful. He is patient, but decisive like the chess master he is. He has a plan, and when conditions are such that he can implement it, he will. He's playing an emotional game right now, banking (successfully) on the frustration and hesitation of the Ukrainians to undermine their own nascent state. [CORRECT - Ukraine has totally undermined their position. They have lost the east, have no hope of regaining Crimea, and have pushed the pro-Russians into Russia's arms. NATO hasn't come to Ukraine's aid and Russia has abandoned the dollar. NATO sanctions have had no effect on Russia and, in fact, Russia's economy is booming.]

(Original: Thread: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387 (Page 2604)
 Quoting: The_Original_Mind


Sorry, I don't even think you are even really at point 5 yet. There has been no further uprisings to speak of in regions outside of the two breakaway regions. That is still very limited.

As far as instability in the west, what evidence is there for that? Demonstrations in front of the Russian embassy? Mild attempts to shut down the Maidan encampments? Token protests against the draft? There was good election turnout in the west and no real instability as far as I can see, unless you think a holocaust historian turning up dead in Lvov is something new.

To me you are outlining a grand process that isn't really getting off the ground. That doesn't mean that some trigger event won't happen but I am not seeing what you think is happening. All I am seeing is a continuing and relentless campaign aimed at regime change in Moscow. The insurgents have at most a stalemate that could go south on them any time. That will be followed by reprisals and a real fascist crackdown in the areas they once held. For whatever reason Russia has decided to stay within a legal framework that relegates Moscow to strong protests and diplomatic claptrap.

Even if you believe that Russia sent some tanks and artillery the numbers are not significant enough to make a difference. Russia would have to openly arm the militants to change anything and Moscow wants to cling to deniability. Putin has completely lost the initiative. Not my idea of good chess.
Falter

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06/14/2014 04:15 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
RT ‏@RT_com 5 min
LATEST: No deal reached in #Russia-#Ukraine-EU gas talks in Kiev [link to ]
"When the rich wage war, it's the poor who die."
-Jean Paul Sartre

"In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
-Ernest Hemingway

"China is a sleeping giant, Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."
-Napoleon Bonaparte

"Streets of Leningrad taught me one thing - if fight is inevitable, throw the first punch."
-Vladimir Putin

World War 3 prediction: Summer 2020.
PIR

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06/14/2014 04:18 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
As I have been saying for almost 2 months now...

Expect Russia to roll into Ukraine as "peace keepers" the 3rd week of June on or near the solstice...they will be greeted by cheering crowds offering flowers..

Last Edited by PIR on 06/14/2014 04:18 PM
Anonymous Coward
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Can one of the regulars summarize the last few days for me? I've been so busy tracing events in Iraq that I've lost track of what's going on in Ukraine.

Cheers
 Quoting: The_Original_Mind


I ve been away for a bit too but when I was here there had been reports of Russian T-72's about 3 of them crossing into Ukraine which I later think turned out to be some captured T-64's Ukrainian MBT's,

Also yesterday there was a UA APC that crossed into Russia chasing a Vehicle


a UA Helo went down after being shot at in Ukraine but reports of what I had seen had said the Helo landed in Russia

Sorry its a bit sketchy buddy been at job interviews all week
 Quoting: Anderson_G


Thanks mate. I'm gathering from the latest round of posts that, basically, Ukrainian and Russian vehicles and aircraft have been crossing the border back and forth, that there's been an exchange of fire, that a Ukrainian transport plane was brought down in the east, and that the Russian embassy in Kiev has been breached.

So, I think now would be a good time to repost my prediction from 4/16. I think we've reached the trigger-point and, unless something changes, can expect a Russian invasion of Ukraine soon, or at the very least Russian annexation of East Ukraine (Novorossiya).

(By the way, good luck with the interviews.)

---

My take:

1) Russia won't invade UA any time soon. [CORRECT]

2) Russia WILL support the resistance in East UA, whether it's a pro-Russian resistance or a Right Sector resistance. Anything that destabilizes UA. [CORRECT]

3) UA's failure to deal with the revolt using small-scale means (i.e. what they're doing now) will force UA to deploy significant forces to quell the revolt. [CORRECT]

4) Hence, Russia will draw UA into a bitter and messy battle in the east, similarly drawing UA's attention and logistics into that region. It's a basic chess stategy: encourage the enemy to commit to a particular region of the board using your pawns, while arranging your key pieces for a later strike. [CORRECT]

5) Increased UA army deployment will (i) encourage more uprisings, (ii) encourage more defections. [CORRECT - In fact, Ukrainian action pushed the eastern provinces to break away, forming Novorossiya]

6) At this point, expect increased domestic strife in West UA. [CORRECT]

7) With UA focused on the east and destabilized by riots in the west, expect a trigger event. This could be as simple as the UN refusing to deploy peacekeeping forces, as dramatic as a bombing of a civilian target. [PLAUSIBLY CORRECT - During the past week, Ukrainian and Russian military vehicles and planes have engaged in cross-border combat, and today (6/14) Ukrainian civilians have besieged and breached the Russian embassy in Kiev, prompting Russia to call another UN Security Council meeting]

8) Russia will then launch the CLASSIC Zhukov Maneuver: A pincer attack from Crimea and Senkovka, tracing a line along the Dnieper. Russia will then advance into East UA toward Kharkiv and Donetsk, with paratroopers seizing key stations in the eastern region, including taking operational command of militia forces, particularly in Sloviansk and Mariupol. The objective will be, therefore, threefold: (i) secure the Dnieper; (ii) secure the key communication, transportation, and logistical spots in the east; (iii) encircle Kiev. These three objectives, if achieved, will render UA unable to fight without Western support. [WAITING]

9) Expect small-scale special forces operations to seize Odessa and possibly link up with Moldova.

Timeline? Maybe a couple of weeks to 3 months from now to begin. [CORRECT - There has been no early Russian invasion. The question: will Russian invade by 7/16?] By July, the US will be deep into its political campaigning season. [Note: American MSM is already focusing on electoral squabbles, such as the Eric Cantor debacle and Obama's response to the Iraq Crisis] Also, the later Russia can start their attack, the less time the West will have to retaliate, due to the advent of autumn rains and winter snow in the region. Importantly, Putin doesn't want to overplay his hand. He has Crimea. But he could lose it if he isn't careful. He is patient, but decisive like the chess master he is. He has a plan, and when conditions are such that he can implement it, he will. He's playing an emotional game right now, banking (successfully) on the frustration and hesitation of the Ukrainians to undermine their own nascent state. [CORRECT - Ukraine has totally undermined their position. They have lost the east, have no hope of regaining Crimea, and have pushed the pro-Russians into Russia's arms. NATO hasn't come to Ukraine's aid and Russia has abandoned the dollar. NATO sanctions have had no effect on Russia and, in fact, Russia's economy is booming.]

(Original: Thread: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387 (Page 2604)
 Quoting: The_Original_Mind


No worries buddy and thank you for the Luck its been 2 years out of work due to an injury lol

Yeah a Cargo plane carrying 49 men was downed killing all, and I think there has been a fair few cross over's regarding the border Ukraine did protest that they were being attack by Russian Army T-72's and supposedly damaged one and someone on twitter posted pic's up from Georgia 08 I think trying to say it was in Ukraine.

and I think we are indeed closer to an attack from Russia however I don't think it will happen until at least the End of the Month notice the Issues in Iraq, now along with the Syrian Deadline approaching with the Threat of strikes through Chapter 7 still on the cards and quite possibly more likely now with the Ukraine issue and Israel warming up along with Iran's proclaimed entrance into the Iraq theatre, Saudi's are going to be throwing hammers in the Middle east...

China is gearing up massively for a more pro-active approach in Asia and Japan building up forces along with the recent military deal with Australia everything is being lined up and we have reached an impasse where no one will strike until they feel there truly is no option and I'm hoping it wouldn't involve pre-emptive nuclear strikes as we are in theory at a stalemate until one side has a better capability to reproduce the hardware that would be lost and quick or until someone has a advantage that will be very hard to beat.
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Citizen of EU ‏@wavetossed 6 min
#Lugansk airport, 1500 men of Dnepropetrovsk motor brigade opened fire on Lviv brigade. After an intense firefight they raised Russian flag
 Quoting: Falter


propoganda
Falter

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06/14/2014 04:21 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Citizen of EU ‏@wavetossed 6 min
#Lugansk airport, 1500 men of Dnepropetrovsk motor brigade opened fire on Lviv brigade. After an intense firefight they raised Russian flag
 Quoting: Falter


propoganda
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 58783766


Sigh, what is propaganda now?
1500 soldiers? The russian flag?
"When the rich wage war, it's the poor who die."
-Jean Paul Sartre

"In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
-Ernest Hemingway

"China is a sleeping giant, Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."
-Napoleon Bonaparte

"Streets of Leningrad taught me one thing - if fight is inevitable, throw the first punch."
-Vladimir Putin

World War 3 prediction: Summer 2020.
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Germany
06/14/2014 04:22 PM
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
BREAKING Fire at the territory of the #Russian embassy | EMPR Photo #Ukraine #Kyiv pic.twitter.com/6NRQgoYZxQ
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Can one of the regulars summarize the last few days for me? I've been so busy tracing events in Iraq that I've lost track of what's going on in Ukraine.

Cheers
 Quoting: The_Original_Mind


I ve been away for a bit too but when I was here there had been reports of Russian T-72's about 3 of them crossing into Ukraine which I later think turned out to be some captured T-64's Ukrainian MBT's,

Also yesterday there was a UA APC that crossed into Russia chasing a Vehicle


a UA Helo went down after being shot at in Ukraine but reports of what I had seen had said the Helo landed in Russia

Sorry its a bit sketchy buddy been at job interviews all week
 Quoting: Anderson_G


Thanks mate. I'm gathering from the latest round of posts that, basically, Ukrainian and Russian vehicles and aircraft have been crossing the border back and forth, that there's been an exchange of fire, that a Ukrainian transport plane was brought down in the east, and that the Russian embassy in Kiev has been breached.

So, I think now would be a good time to repost my prediction from 4/16. I think we've reached the trigger-point and, unless something changes, can expect a Russian invasion of Ukraine soon, or at the very least Russian annexation of East Ukraine (Novorossiya).

(By the way, good luck with the interviews.)

---

My take:

1) Russia won't invade UA any time soon. [CORRECT]

2) Russia WILL support the resistance in East UA, whether it's a pro-Russian resistance or a Right Sector resistance. Anything that destabilizes UA. [CORRECT]

3) UA's failure to deal with the revolt using small-scale means (i.e. what they're doing now) will force UA to deploy significant forces to quell the revolt. [CORRECT]

4) Hence, Russia will draw UA into a bitter and messy battle in the east, similarly drawing UA's attention and logistics into that region. It's a basic chess stategy: encourage the enemy to commit to a particular region of the board using your pawns, while arranging your key pieces for a later strike. [CORRECT]

5) Increased UA army deployment will (i) encourage more uprisings, (ii) encourage more defections. [CORRECT - In fact, Ukrainian action pushed the eastern provinces to break away, forming Novorossiya]

6) At this point, expect increased domestic strife in West UA. [CORRECT]

7) With UA focused on the east and destabilized by riots in the west, expect a trigger event. This could be as simple as the UN refusing to deploy peacekeeping forces, as dramatic as a bombing of a civilian target. [PLAUSIBLY CORRECT - During the past week, Ukrainian and Russian military vehicles and planes have engaged in cross-border combat, and today (6/14) Ukrainian civilians have besieged and breached the Russian embassy in Kiev, prompting Russia to call another UN Security Council meeting]

8) Russia will then launch the CLASSIC Zhukov Maneuver: A pincer attack from Crimea and Senkovka, tracing a line along the Dnieper. Russia will then advance into East UA toward Kharkiv and Donetsk, with paratroopers seizing key stations in the eastern region, including taking operational command of militia forces, particularly in Sloviansk and Mariupol. The objective will be, therefore, threefold: (i) secure the Dnieper; (ii) secure the key communication, transportation, and logistical spots in the east; (iii) encircle Kiev. These three objectives, if achieved, will render UA unable to fight without Western support. [WAITING]

9) Expect small-scale special forces operations to seize Odessa and possibly link up with Moldova.

Timeline? Maybe a couple of weeks to 3 months from now to begin. [CORRECT - There has been no early Russian invasion. The question: will Russian invade by 7/16?] By July, the US will be deep into its political campaigning season. [Note: American MSM is already focusing on electoral squabbles, such as the Eric Cantor debacle and Obama's response to the Iraq Crisis] Also, the later Russia can start their attack, the less time the West will have to retaliate, due to the advent of autumn rains and winter snow in the region. Importantly, Putin doesn't want to overplay his hand. He has Crimea. But he could lose it if he isn't careful. He is patient, but decisive like the chess master he is. He has a plan, and when conditions are such that he can implement it, he will. He's playing an emotional game right now, banking (successfully) on the frustration and hesitation of the Ukrainians to undermine their own nascent state. [CORRECT - Ukraine has totally undermined their position. They have lost the east, have no hope of regaining Crimea, and have pushed the pro-Russians into Russia's arms. NATO hasn't come to Ukraine's aid and Russia has abandoned the dollar. NATO sanctions have had no effect on Russia and, in fact, Russia's economy is booming.]

(Original: Thread: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387 (Page 2604)
 Quoting: The_Original_Mind

When you wrote Russian economy is booming, can you give a couple of examples or elaborate?
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387


Sorry, I don't even think you are even really at point 5 yet. There has been no further uprisings to speak of in regions outside of the two breakaway regions. That is still very limited.

As far as instability in the west, what evidence is there for that? Demonstrations in front of the Russian embassy? Mild attempts to shut down the Maidan encampments? Token protests against the draft? There was good election turnout in the west and no real instability as far as I can see, unless you think a holocaust historian turning up dead in Lvov is something new.

To me you are outlining a grand process that isn't really getting off the ground. That doesn't mean that some trigger event won't happen but I am not seeing what you think is happening. All I am seeing is a continuing and relentless campaign aimed at regime change in Moscow. The insurgents have at most a stalemate that could go south on them any time. That will be followed by reprisals and a real fascist crackdown in the areas they once held. For whatever reason Russia has decided to stay within a legal framework that relegates Moscow to strong protests and diplomatic claptrap.

Even if you believe that Russia sent some tanks and artillery the numbers are not significant enough to make a difference. Russia would have to openly arm the militants to change anything and Moscow wants to cling to deniability. Putin has completely lost the initiative. Not my idea of good chess.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 50160726


I deliberately left the prediction vague because I didn't and couldn't know precisely how it would proceed. You yourself cite some instances of uprising in the west - sure, they aren't turning violent until now, but they are general signs of unrest. I grant that I should have written "unrest" instead of "uprising" originally - so grant me that correction.

I think your reading of events undercuts itself. You posit a contradiction: (1) Moscow is staying within the confines of the legal framework and (2) Moscow is undertaking clandestine operations aimed at regime change in Kiev. (2) contradicts (1). Moscow appears to be staying within the bounds of international propriety, but is in fact working to prepare the ground for the takeover of Novorossiya. Also, note that I allow for the eventuality that Putin won't move into Ukraine (in my last paragraph). I don't think Putin will attack unless he sees that he can get away with it, and I certainly don't think he'll move beyond the Dnieper if he attacks at all. But I do think he has the will and intention to attack, and that he's lining up the pieces for such a move.

I also don't like the implication of your use of the word "fascist." The Ukrainian and Russian regimes are fascist, as it the emergent regime in Novorossiya. There is no difference in kind between any of the regimes in play.

Why would Russia have to "openly" arm the militants? And I don't see what evidence there is that Putin has lost the initiative.
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387


No worries buddy and thank you for the Luck its been 2 years out of work due to an injury lol

Yeah a Cargo plane carrying 49 men was downed killing all, and I think there has been a fair few cross over's regarding the border Ukraine did protest that they were being attack by Russian Army T-72's and supposedly damaged one and someone on twitter posted pic's up from Georgia 08 I think trying to say it was in Ukraine.

and I think we are indeed closer to an attack from Russia however I don't think it will happen until at least the End of the Month notice the Issues in Iraq, now along with the Syrian Deadline approaching with the Threat of strikes through Chapter 7 still on the cards and quite possibly more likely now with the Ukraine issue and Israel warming up along with Iran's proclaimed entrance into the Iraq theatre, Saudi's are going to be throwing hammers in the Middle east...

China is gearing up massively for a more pro-active approach in Asia and Japan building up forces along with the recent military deal with Australia everything is being lined up and we have reached an impasse where no one will strike until they feel there truly is no option and I'm hoping it wouldn't involve pre-emptive nuclear strikes as we are in theory at a stalemate until one side has a better capability to reproduce the hardware that would be lost and quick or until someone has a advantage that will be very hard to beat.
 Quoting: Anderson_G


Yeah, I don't see a Russian attack coming soon. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened some time after July 4th. China is a wildcard - I've genuinely no idea what they're going to do.
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387


No worries buddy and thank you for the Luck its been 2 years out of work due to an injury lol

Yeah a Cargo plane carrying 49 men was downed killing all, and I think there has been a fair few cross over's regarding the border Ukraine did protest that they were being attack by Russian Army T-72's and supposedly damaged one and someone on twitter posted pic's up from Georgia 08 I think trying to say it was in Ukraine.

and I think we are indeed closer to an attack from Russia however I don't think it will happen until at least the End of the Month notice the Issues in Iraq, now along with the Syrian Deadline approaching with the Threat of strikes through Chapter 7 still on the cards and quite possibly more likely now with the Ukraine issue and Israel warming up along with Iran's proclaimed entrance into the Iraq theatre, Saudi's are going to be throwing hammers in the Middle east...

China is gearing up massively for a more pro-active approach in Asia and Japan building up forces along with the recent military deal with Australia everything is being lined up and we have reached an impasse where no one will strike until they feel there truly is no option and I'm hoping it wouldn't involve pre-emptive nuclear strikes as we are in theory at a stalemate until one side has a better capability to reproduce the hardware that would be lost and quick or until someone has a advantage that will be very hard to beat.
 Quoting: Anderson_G


Yeah, I don't see a Russian attack coming soon. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened some time after July 4th. China is a wildcard - I've genuinely no idea what they're going to do.
 Quoting: The_Original_Mind


IMO China and Russia will use each other and may actually form a decent peaceful relationship for sometime if they win the war, however two ideologies can't exist together even the smallest difference will become a issue like a stress fracture progressing to a full on break, but the moment one theatre pops another will open up
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Today in Ukraine...historical replication!

Education For Death - The Making Of The Nazi (1943) Walt Disney

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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Ukrainians are absolutely sick of Russia.
 Quoting: Chippey


It seems like all the neighbors of Russia are sick of Russia, its only clueless westerners and Kremlin shills who are taking the aggressor Russian side...
Frankly I am tired of explaining this by now, those who don't get it are not gonna get it...
 Quoting: Skizzy


Well give up then your not Ukrainian your an american shill protecting your newly occupied country ukraine.
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Ukraine Reporter ‏@StateOfUkraine 3m

Fire after crowd that is angry about Russia's war in #Ukraine throws molotov cocktail at Russian embassy in #Kiev pic.twitter.com/YlU2ZpeVa6

Russian Market ‏@russian_market 59s

#BREAKING Fire breaks out at the Russian Embassy in Kiev pic.twitter.com/e3SxF0tHXV

Last Edited by Dorset Moran on 06/14/2014 04:36 PM
-Tom
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
So they burn an embassy, it's not like they killed a pregnant lady in cold blood for no reason.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 59241887


Oh, a 5 year old Psychopath, never seen that before.
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Citizen of EU ‏@wavetossed 6 min
#Lugansk airport, 1500 men of Dnepropetrovsk motor brigade opened fire on Lviv brigade. After an intense firefight they raised Russian flag
 Quoting: Falter


propoganda
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 58783766


Sigh, what is propaganda now?
1500 soldiers? The russian flag?
 Quoting: Falter

I was directing at you, rather the source behind the tweet. I should been more specific. 1500 men taking up the Russian Federation colours. I would think this to be a crushing blow
to Ukraine, making it more widely reported on.
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Re: UKRAINE/RUSSIA NEWS: Russian military drills begin near Ukraine day after militants announce 100k strong mobalisation!!!p.7387
Ukraine Reporter ‏@StateOfUkraine 3m

Fire after crowd that is angry about Russia's war in #Ukraine throws molotov cocktail at Russian embassy in #Kiev pic.twitter.com/YlU2ZpeVa6

Russian Market ‏@russian_market 59s

#BREAKING Fire breaks out at the Russian Embassy in Kiev pic.twitter.com/e3SxF0tHXV
 Quoting: Anti-Banderist


calm down little fire in front of embassy, firefighters on scene and fire distinguished





GLP