MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO...FAR SERN KS...ERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 33...
VALID 271950Z - 272115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 33 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN WW 33 WITH SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MONITORING FOR MORE ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT S
OF WW 33 IN ERN OK WHERE WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...ARCING BAND OF DISCRETE TSTMS WITHIN THE CORE OF WW 33
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND IMPINGING
COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE BAND
NEAR/E OF KANSAS CITY/ST JOSEPH...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL
AND TORNADOES GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 250 M2/S2. FARTHER
S/SW...WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED ON THE CUSP OF
MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS...MODIFIED 18Z SGF RAOB SUGGESTS
LITTLE CIN IS PRESENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE IN ERN OK...CONVERGENCE ALONG IT APPEARS
TO BE FOSTERING AGITATED CU SW OF TULSA. DESPITE REMAINING S OF THE
GREATER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...A LONE SUPERCELL COULD FORM WITH
SIMILAR RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO. HOWEVER...MERGING OF THE
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE LATER THIS EVENING MAY BE ULTIMATELY NECESSARY TO
SUSTAIN/INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH SRN EXTENT.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2014
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...I CT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36699562 37519527 38719483 39819459 40329474 40579458
40679411 40649362 40519294 40279230 39359234 37869295
36649354 35629422 34789510 34809634 35039664 36019613
36699562